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garbagebags

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Everything posted by garbagebags

  1. Well in fairness its not consistent as in the 12z it was over Shetland.
  2. I would say we are pretty confident out to 150. (just as the ridge starts to form) After that, its completely up for grabs. By my reckoning that makes the next few days the most exciting model watching time!
  3. I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?
  4. The way of the pear has been gone today. Still time to recover though. Not to mention 2.5 months of winter and 3.5 months of potential snow to go.
  5. Because the parallel is not the soon to be come live operational. It's the parallel of an unfinished model. Don't be fooled into thinking your viewing the new, finished, operational gfs.
  6. It does look from that that the operational is something of a wild card for mild temps between xmas and NY
  7. Well in fairness, at this stage Colder blocked condition seem the favorable course of event. i.e. More likely than Mild and wet. Backed by at least 4 models at this stage. And not FI either, beginning as early as +150.
  8. So, awards for the best eye candy tonight goes to the new GFS. Either a brilliant model, or an outrageous ramper. Either way. I'm loving these.
  9. Seems to be a lot of "not bad but not great" going on with regards to the models. Lets put this in perspective, and keep it simple. Here is the wind direction for Xmas day morning. Now would you not have given your right arm for that last year? I know it's just one factor but it's very very positive. And the height Anoms for the Atlantic. Were you not praying for that last year to end the conveyor belt onslaught? We don't get to pick the weather so we should be grateful for any hope.
  10. Meanwhile I'm still seeing cracking ridging in the Atlantic. That's still there and for every run it remains I get more and more optimistic.
  11. I dont like to be a party pooper but would this exact chart not just mean high winds and rain for most of England?
  12. Can I ask. Why is the operational GFS run different to the average/mean GFS run (sorry if thats not the right words but you know the one I mean. I would (ignorantly) think that the operation run would be the average of all the gfs members? that that would be how they come up with the run?
  13. I feel the same way. I'm desperately trying to analyse if "it's just me" with rose tinted goggles. Pretty sure last year I too saw hope. Difficult for me to discern if its genuinely looking better. I dare say if the Atlantic went all zonal over the next few days (a possibility) we would all be crying out "ahhh its like last year". I think I will reserve judgement until 48hrs out. However I am of course excited by developments.
  14. I feel the same way. I'm desperately trying to analyse if "it's just me" with rose tinted goggles. Pretty sure last year I too saw hope. Difficult for me to discern if its genuinely looking better. I dare say if the Atlantic went all zonal over the next few days (a possibility) we would all be crying out "ahhh its like last year". I think I will reserve judgement until 48hrs out. However I am of course excited by developments.
  15. This "post xmas day event" has been hinted at in very deep FI for some time now. IF ( a big if) this comes off then the GFS should be given a big pat on the back especially for its FI work.
  16. I think we need to be careful about how generally we talk, as it stands, the north (Scotland) see's more -5 (850) days than +5 days in the run up to xmas. So for Scotland at least, looks like average to colder than average run up to xmas. Definitely quite a north south split in the models now.
  17. Problem with NW'erlys is they are a bit like a stripper. Your all excited about it before it happens but after its happened, you are just left feeling frustrated and wishing you had got more
  18. The 06 has deepened the midweek low slightly. Really glad Im not on a boat near shetland this week.
  19. Looks like the UK may see its first 850 -10 line this weekend. I have to say, its a bit sad to see everyone looking way into next week and beyond and getting down about it. I think there is a case of "not being able to see the woods for the trees" going on here (I too am guilty). I mean, here we are, just over a week into winter and we have -10 line forecast to hit the british Isles. God, compared to last winter thats a near miracle.
  20. Hi, my reply was moved here - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/page-49 Thanks,.
  21. Really? Looks like a fairly good snow event here for Sunday, at ground level
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