garbagebags

Sorry if this isn't the right place but I am curious. Does any of the potential forthcoming setup have any Northwesterly elements to it? or is it just North to East flows? Im just asking because a Cold NWerly is best for me (Glasgow) for snow. Usually get nothing from an easterly. And a straight northerly tends to have dried out by the time it gets down this far. although not always.

It looks transient though. Doesn't apear to be a "sit and stick" AZH by any means. nothing to worry about I don't think.

To be fair I had 4 feet of snow to low levels in Nov 2010.

Everyone seems to be ramping I guess I am the only one "moaning". All I can see is a brief, nay... exceptionally brief cold shot that yes will bring snow but it will never lie on the sopping and "warm" ground. I say expect a nasty wind chill, lots of driving sleet some falling snow and a bit of mushy slush underfoot. Pah.

"Arctic Blast" "deep freeze" "Colder than the Antarctic"

Well in fairness its not consistent as in the 12z it was over Shetland.

I would say we are pretty confident out to 150. (just as the ridge starts to form) After that, its completely up for grabs. By my reckoning that makes the next few days the most exciting model watching time!

I don't buy this low pressure over Scotland. It just pops up out of absolutely nowhere! No way could it so quickly get so strong? Surely?

The way of the pear has been gone today. Still time to recover though. Not to mention 2.5 months of winter and 3.5 months of potential snow to go.

Because the parallel is not the soon to be come live operational. It's the parallel of an unfinished model. Don't be fooled into thinking your viewing the new, finished, operational gfs.

It does look from that that the operational is something of a wild card for mild temps between xmas and NY

Well in fairness, at this stage Colder blocked condition seem the favorable course of event. i.e. More likely than Mild and wet. Backed by at least 4 models at this stage. And not FI either, beginning as early as +150.

So, awards for the best eye candy tonight goes to the new GFS. Either a brilliant model, or an outrageous ramper. Either way. I'm loving these.

Two words. THAT ECM.

Seems to be a lot of "not bad but not great" going on with regards to the models. Lets put this in perspective, and keep it simple. Here is the wind direction for Xmas day morning. Now would you not have given your right arm for that last year? I know it's just one factor but it's very very positive. And the height Anoms for the Atlantic. Were you not praying for that last year to end the conveyor belt onslaught? We don't get to pick the weather so we should be grateful for any hope.