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Gavin Hannah

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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Horrible mild start to winter across much of Europe.Latest UKMO update today firms up very much the same for the rest of this month. Wet for you and dry for us. Day after day of sun here under Euro high and snow starved comes to mind. Bleak news for the ski-ing season and more rain for the NW of UK and much of Ireland. Hate this set up, I find relief in drinking more beer !

     C

    I have aquired a new snowboard today so there had better be some damn snow soon! :angry:

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ok I think the 3 of the last 4 GFS outputs have shown a pattern change of sorts the closer we get to the big day. I think the 18Z was still going for the mild south westerly solution whereas yesterdays 06Z to this mornings 00Z have show possibly something much more seasonal and wintry ahead. Each has taken a slightly different track to get there and the outcome is different in terms of wintry weather but would it be fair to say there is a pattern change coming? The result of which is still to be decided, or do we need more runs similar to the 06, 12 and this mornings 00z?

    • Like 1

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

    Just  posted this in the Scottish thread;

    Well here goes  I predict  proper winter will arrive just before Christmas with a fair bit of snow and frost. How do I know this I have just seen Highland Council burning diesel in an empty gritter/snowplough going round the local  side roads.  Probably showing new driver round the route but could have done it in a van. Have they had a  warning issued from sources we do not see? Most unusual behaviour. Are they preparing for the holiday period with relief drivers?

    Edited 1 hour ago by Northernlights

    Of course I could be totally wrong but with all the councils cutting back was strange to see.

     

     

    I'm adding this to the Squirrels and Nuts theory lol.... All I will say is that we aren't too far off of 2009 territory if you're looking for "signs"....

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    These mid rangers are the best out there and programmed to look for the major changes which may impact us, it there were any signs of that for the next 30 days, they would be showing it, and they arent.

     

    They're not showing it... Yet...  :D

     

    I seem to remember the GFS doing better than then ECM in recent winters with the ECM the one to usually throw out the golden FI charts before changing it's mind. And wasn't the GFS normally skewed to favour the westerlies???

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I like to ref Dec 2009, I don't think anyone saw that coming until very near the time. From memory, it had been wet and windy up to that point so yeah, models are good in the short term but longer term is still not written off by any stretch of the imagination.  If we get to a week out from Xmas and it's showing mild mush, then I will accept that a white Xmas is looking unlikely.

     

    From what I've been reading, most of the knowledgeable folks are punting for a Cold and Wintry Jan/Feb so perhaps a chance of something more like 2010/11? And while it's dissapointing when Xmas day turns out to be 10 degrees and wet, 2009 I think, was a rare oddity. Emphasis on 'rare'. My experience would lead me to suggest that the UK is always a month behind in terms of "seasonal weather" because of our location, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility, it's just harder to come by events like 2009/10 & 2010/11.... Also, the north of the UK does better than down here in the south just by the nautre of being 'the north'.

     

    Anyway, still a week from December so I will not be getting to disheartened just yet.  :good:

    • Like 1

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Mild winters and cold winters can occur in clusters, so I can guarantee that all of lowland Britain will see snow again. :good: Nothing unusual about three mild winters in a row, if indeed this one is going to be mild. One thing about winter storms, why name them 'Barney', how about something that would make people take them more seriously, storm 'Oblivion' or storm 'Beelzebub' would be more apt if we get another huge storm this winter. :blink2:

     

    Depends on your deffinition of huge, by comparisson to some Hurricanes and tropical monsoons, a stiff gale and a few chimney pots blown over is like comparing a sardine to a salmon...weird conotation there lol... However, I do like your suggestion.. Storm Abigail was a crap name for a storm..."oooh its got the syllable "gail" in it..."  pfft.. :nonono: And dont get me started on Storm Purple Dinosaur..

     

    I think the next storm should be called Storm "Apocalypse Now"  :D

    Winter 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The latest from the Cornish seasonal desk indicates a pattern change around mid November to more zonality which presages wet, warm and windy for December and January.

     

    As much as I would hate to see that come to fruition, I wouldn't be surprised. That big puddle to our left can be a right pain in the A*£$ some times and just a big party pooper!

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