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Gavin Hannah

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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

    Without sounding like a kill-joy.. Please remember there is a winter 'banter' thread open, So let's all try and keep discussion to Model Output in here please.

    Thanks, PM

    Ah thought I had put that in the Banter thread...

    Anyway.. Had a look at this mornings output and it's just a rinse and repeat scenario all the way to new year. The southerly draws are just rediculous and the surface temperatures are off the chart so to speak.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Gavin Hannah

    Well for two back to back runs to have FI charts fairly similar at t.384 is to my mind... a rare thing indeed.

    While different conditions on the ground the Scandi-ish HP is still there although maybe more of Scuro HP. Main difference being the HP in the Atlantic is missing as the GFS really devlops the LP system coming out of Canada. If only this were 9-10 days out rather than 16. I would be much more confident in Scandi HP being a possible solution. At this range though, it could easily dissapear. Why do you do this to us GFS.... Why?

     

    Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The thing with weather is its fluid, no matter how poor the outputs might look now in terms of cold potential the outputs are continually evolving.

    True, I just have the feeling that the UK constantly gets the shaft when mother nature hands out her winter goodies... We have to wait for her to fall asleep on the job for us to get a sniff of a decent winter.

     

    I will say that the GFS is being pretty consistent with the next 6 to 7 days pattern. It's the fine detail of what actual evolves that will determine what happens come the big day and I will happily settle for PM westerlies if it means I can hit the slopes up north around Xmas and New year. 

    Beeb weather suggested last night that the Jet will flatten out over the next week and pretty much run over the UK which would be better than having it drive up from the deep south I reckon. I think that would allow more PM shots as has been seen on some of the outputs. At this point I will be happy to just avoid a blow torch event which would really screw up my snowboarding plans.

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It may just fill but then you still have the problem of the Euro heights - as I say though a much better run than earlier runs today.

    Plus the LP in the Atlantic can eject SW after SW if it chooses.... 

    The more runs we get without the LP phasing in the Atlantic, the better but it's still by no means easy street to sustained cold.

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bullseye said:

    Alot of talk today , on Twitter at least, about MJO going into phase 7 late Dec/early Jan. Question is how much of an influence does this have on the models which is still FI at this stage? Phase 2/3 was showing only 3 days ago so quite a turnaround if it indeed comes out at Phase 7.

    I'm not clued up on MJO phases.. would this be a benefit or a hindderance?

    • Like 1
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