Gavin Hannah

Back just in time for this thread to start. Does anyone know of some early seasonal predictions for this winter?

Ah thought I had put that in the Banter thread... Anyway.. Had a look at this mornings output and it's just a rinse and repeat scenario all the way to new year. The southerly draws are just rediculous and the surface temperatures are off the chart so to speak.

By order of the Emperor, the models have been hence forth been consigned to the dungeon for public flogging and execution at a date and time to be determined.

COMON YOU DIRTY MUTHA WEATHER GODS!!!!!!! STOP RUINING THE WINTER!!!!!

HP has definetly been shown on quite a number of the recent outputs. It would be something akin to 2009/10 if something materialised within the 10 day timeframe. That said, I am encouraged by the info you guys are posting. Something does appear to be afoot and it may be the slither of hope we need to lift us out of the doom and gloom.

For the sake of the ski slopes.. I hope the mild temps are being over cooked. 10 degrees at 8am in december is just bonkers nevermind whats being forecast.

I will say this.. HP is def trying to Ridge into Greenland and Scandi.... are the models picking up on something here? Or am I just clutching at straws?

Is the GFS lining up a major cold plunge for the UK with this FI chart?? HP building across Canada and nudging towards Greenland... Never mind lol.. LP spoiling the party.

Well for two back to back runs to have FI charts fairly similar at t.384 is to my mind... a rare thing indeed. While different conditions on the ground the Scandi-ish HP is still there although maybe more of Scuro HP. Main difference being the HP in the Atlantic is missing as the GFS really devlops the LP system coming out of Canada. If only this were 9-10 days out rather than 16. I would be much more confident in Scandi HP being a possible solution. At this range though, it could easily dissapear. Why do you do this to us GFS.... Why?

Ok... FI But.... Can we please get this, but only a triffle sooner lol.....

True, I just have the feeling that the UK constantly gets the shaft when mother nature hands out her winter goodies... We have to wait for her to fall asleep on the job for us to get a sniff of a decent winter. I will say that the GFS is being pretty consistent with the next 6 to 7 days pattern. It's the fine detail of what actual evolves that will determine what happens come the big day and I will happily settle for PM westerlies if it means I can hit the slopes up north around Xmas and New year. Beeb weather suggested last night that the Jet will flatten out over the next week and pretty much run over the UK which would be better than having it drive up from the deep south I reckon. I think that would allow more PM shots as has been seen on some of the outputs. At this point I will be happy to just avoid a blow torch event which would really screw up my snowboarding plans.

Yes the 06z does indeed bring some festive cheer compared to the 00z lol. Output flip flopping between seasonal goodness and un-seasonal nightmare for the big day....

Just having a punt here but the GFS could be lining up for something interesting....

Watching to see what happens with this HP over the North Sea Area at t.108. So far the shortwave low doesn't phase with the LP further west while the LP that stalls over the UK starts to fill. Hmm at t.150 Scandi HP starts to build quite high compared with the 12Z..

That chart belongs in one place only IMO.... The Bin!

18Z is in.. Nothing to get excited about. It's subtly different to the 12Z and the GFS is starting to churn out variations of the same theme. The wait goes on..

Low pressure setup here looking like taking most of the weather through the channel as apposed to through the UK, Subtle difference but could be something to watch as colder air to north starts to dig south further on.

Plus the LP in the Atlantic can eject SW after SW if it chooses.... The more runs we get without the LP phasing in the Atlantic, the better but it's still by no means easy street to sustained cold.

I agree but the more favorable HP alignment to our north may drag it NW.

Here's yet another problem at t.135.... Captain Shortwave strikes again Only positive I can see is that the HP to our north is more favorably aligned at t.147

While still a bit iffy looking, the cold air digs deeper into the Atlantic on the 18Z at about t.105 Low to the west is position further north. While not looking like producing anything like a miracle, the overall weather should be more seasonal at times. Big problem is going to be the rain fall.

Western America is getting a good soak just now from what I can see on the beeb weather, while the east coast is unseasonably warm. And so begins the pub run.....

Ok, come on Pub Run!! Lets get this weather sorted for crimbo! On more somber note, I'm starting to feel the cold death grip of 13/14 creeping up on us again...

I'm not clued up on MJO phases.. would this be a benefit or a hindderance?

Well on the 12Z, colder air is making its way further into europe with a HP cell located over the eastern bloc. Could lead to something more promissing down the road. t.186 showing an intense LP of the west coast which leads to more mixing of the air masses compared with the 06Z. No doubt bringing with it more rain.