Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:
I love cold as much as the next man, I really do. But we need to be careful of confirmation bias when dismissing the ECM. Question for the posters more expert than I... If there is a climb down from either ECM or GFS, when should we expect this?
I would expect changes in the outputs of either within the next 24 hours. Days 3 - 4 are within fairly reliable time frame. But as others have alluded to, the devil is in the detail. Think the butterfly effect.
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I'm not liking the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, upstream it looks flatter than recently and kind of supports the op, it could take a bit of work to turn this around but we have plenty of support from the other models for a colder alternative.
ECM for me is in the dust bin (unless it proves right in which case all other mods go in the bin this winter lol)
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I noticed on the GFS run (either the 00Z or last nights pub run) deep in FI, a HP seemed to form and looked positioned just right to deliver us a Beasterly down the line. I would think all our Xmas's have come at once, if we get the progged charts for next weekend, then a Beasterly a week or two before Xmas. This thread would go into meltdown lol.
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These two emoticons pretty much sum up me emotions right now! Ideally, I would like to see these type of chats again in a day or twos time. Then, and only then will I say they are in the reliable time frame but my lord they are soooo close!
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Ok, the next few days are going to be interesting. The next 5 days will be key to what happens next week. I'm seeing good run to run model consistency up to this sunday / monday. We've seen with the 06z what can happen if the chips fall just right. I'm keeping all my fingers and toes crossed.
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06Z just made me weep tears of joy...... lol. good consistency for the next 5 - 7 days and then a humdinger of a cold blast. Bearing in mind this type of setup has been seen before in a few previous runs, what I want to see is a repeat of such a setup move closer into the reliable.
12Z will be interesting, I predict a major come down lol.
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It does look like we've got settled and reasonably cold for the next 5 days nailed on. The cold pool looks slightly further east on the 12z at t.144. Stronger HP signal extending over Nova Scotia also compared with the 06z run. It's all in the details.....
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T+96 and if the HP over the uk extending northwards was able to really dig in for a few weeks, that would potentially provide us with lots of fun!
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Indeed, the next 7 - 10 days is what I would call 'Meh'. Not mild mush, not a beasterly but something in between and feeling cold, especially up north. The key time frame in my mind is next weekend. Whatever the models are showing for the first two weeks in December next weekend is likely going to make or break Xmas. Even then, an Easterly could still sneak up on us.
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I believe 09/10 was forecast about 5 days out???
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The earliest i've boarded was early December 2010.
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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Simple logic, that November update, how can virtually the whole of Eurasia be above average except Mongolia?
Only a computer can produce that outcome when simple human logic knows that is just not feasible.
Plus given the extent of the snow cover in Russia / East Europe.. I want to know what data they are feeding their computer model.
".. Hmm looks like it's going to be much warmer than average over all of Eurasia.. except Mongolia..."
".. but all that snow..?"
".. Meh, computer says no!..W
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We need some sustained cool temps right for a few weeks to allow a base to build and then fingers crossed, at Xmas / New year I will be carving the S**t out of that lovely white stuff!
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Just lovely to see the white pixels in the UK at this time of year. Hopefully. they will be there from now till april!!!
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Aviemore lift pas is ~£30 p/p / day (~£15 for a half day pass) if i remember rightly. I'm assuming you're taking your own gear which means the only other cost is travel / accommodation.
Aviemore is probably the best spot for varied terrain and has the best facilities on site.
Glencoe has some of the toughest runs and rickity old single person chair lift which is an experience lol. It is a bit cheaper, but facilities are limitied. However, the worlds best pub, the Clachaig Inn is only a 10 minutes drive further into the Glen. If you do Glencoe, then make sure you visit this pub. (google it). Also, you could get accomodation near Glencoe / Fort William and do Nevis.
Glenshee is pretty good but is limited in it's terrain options and facilities.
Not done Nevis.
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Im calling this... A blend of 2009 & 2010...
Enjoy the winter! You heard it hear first!
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44 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:
Snow spreading rapidly into Eastern Europe now.
The snow advance is looking absolutely top notch. Here's hoping that all that snow will create a feedback / knock on effect that works in our favor this winter. 2009 & 2010 are fast becoming distant memories now and I think it's about time we got the roll of the dice!
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Some good snow (for time of year) on the western mountains too.
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Whooop!!!
This probably is aimed more at the model aficionados, but unlike last year, it appears to me at least that we are seeing a lot more in the way of Scandi blocking compared with this time last year..? Hopefully, a good omen for the Winter coming.
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Lots of snow on the eastern seaboard of the US / Canada. Alaska is lagging. The synoptics are totally different to last year and that's a good sign that we may get a decent season this year (if we were simply to compare previous years snowfall accumulations & locations).
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Given the current setup, why is Scotland (the highlands) not cold enough for snowfall on the mountains?? This perplexes me....
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A 2009 Repeat is on the cards this year.. I can feel it me bones!
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Why is there a feature to post a link when the forum replaces it with null?? Just realised what was happening to the link I posted earlier.
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Looks like the suns activity is back on the way down? 20 spotless days this year. 260 in 2009 and 51 in 2010. A weak correlation i know, but every little helps?
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These two emoticons pretty much sum up me emotions right now! Ideally, I would like to see these type of chats again in a day or twos time. Then, and only then will I say they are in the reliable time frame but my lord they are soooo close!
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Oh my god I don't think this thread saw this much excitement at any point last year! If that HP in the Atlantic was able to link up with the Greenie HP or Nova Scotia HP, that would be veeeeerrrry interesting.