Gavin Hannah

At t.129 .. small shortwave ejected into the med.

You do realise if it does crop up, it will have to be named that now lol. Let me see that LP squeeze baby squeeze. How low can it go?

... it's popped back out.... ahhhh! unbelievable match play....

No no no... do not throw off a shotwave...

Ok, at t.51, the bottom edge of the LP is sitting a wee bit further south... Looking good so far.

Lets have some of this!

If its as good as last nights 18Z, this forum will probably explode.

Depends on which Op you look at. The 06Z had us under an easterly. The Siberian High looks to become fairly established and close to us at t.144. That has been on both the 12 and 06z. It's what happens after that I'm looking forward to seeing. I would say it's going to be an interesting week or so.

It's coming, this bad boy is going to slide right under and we are going to be getting plastered. I'm going to positive think it to happen!

Hmm, would give the northern half of the UK an easterly flow, westerly for the South. But as they're for 8 days out, will be interesting to see how much they're modified. Call it a gut feeling, but I do sense a north/south split with a Low undercutter. The devil is in the detail....

Hmmm.... Daily Express by any chance???? They were quoted as printing temps of -30 inc windchill when the models were showing the Beasterly a few days ago lol. As regards that purple blob.. it does look familiar..... lol.

That looks like todays or tomorrows chart. Likely GFS.

It's time to hang on to your hats guys n gals. Eagerly awaiting the 18Z and tomorrows output. I would love to see this Low become a slider and undercut the HP as we progress through the week. That would just be like all my Xmases rolled up into one lol.

Just caught the Countryfile forecast 20 mins ago. As stressed by the presenter, Susan ... (?) Wed onwards could be subject to some changes, even this close out. What I will say however is that Thur and Fri were shown as having Easterly winds across the northern half of the UK, and westerly winds across the southern half. The LP center was out to the west and it was being stretched out under the high pressure to our East. The Beeb forecast matches neither the 12Z or the 06Z. Nor the ECM.

A little something for everyone. Running through the 06, and the 12, I have noticed that the major difference is obv the LP and what happens to said LP, will it eject a shortwave? etc.. What is very consistent is the HP over Siberia strengthening and getting closer. A look at t.144 demonstrates the difference in the LP progging and the consistency of the Siberian HP cell.

Quite so, the key is whether or not the LP spits out a Channel dartboard which undercuts, or whether it stalls and flattens out. Sooooooo tense!!!

Agreed if the low develops as progged here, it would not take long for it draw in colder air from the east, north and north west. Keeping an eye on it at t.144. The low is getting squeezed flat. It could easily undercut. Just need it to be further south. Compared the the 06Z.. The Low is tilted at a different angle and the Channel low is gone, so not on the same trend as 06 and 18Z post t.72, but, a bigger chance of the low sliding under if we can get it moving further south as the current run has demonstrated it doing. All I'm going to say is that the time frame post 72 hours is looking very interesting...... watch this space.

Yes Yes Yes as said by Meg Ryan! Lets have this low further south and have some of that above! That almost exactly looks like the current output for the exception of this LP system!

If the 18Z and subsequent runs can drag this low further south then hello mega undercutter..!

The center of the Low pressure system has moved south by a good few hundred miles. Another shift like that on the 18Z and the outcome for midweek is going to be very interesting indeed.

The main Low has migrated further south with a SE-NW tilt at t.63 T.72 already an upgrade! A HP cell over france is modifying the LP air so that we are getting the mix of the two air systems. Cue some snow dumps???

The 12Z is even closer matched for Monday.

I'm thinking the 12Z will get on board with the 18Z and 06Z..... (It's my preferential gut feeling driven by my emotional need for epic wintry weather.)

The 06 also had it pep up over the channel and take an undercutting route. Leads me to believe the 18Z and 06Z are tracking the same idea.

I think that's why we only get two days ahead max in the Beeb forecasts. And on the Countryfile update, at day 5, Susan was stressing how things could change to what she was presenting. What I think will be a big factor on the potential outcome as we enter this week is the Snow cover atm. The European cover is just epic.