Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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Judging my the outputs I've seen, the word 'Zonal' has no place in the mod thread atm. Certainly nothing like last few years where we had not a sniff until the new year for a fraction of the cold and snow we've had the last weekish.
Bring on the pub run.
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See y'all back here when then 0z restores some sanity to the output.
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Despite what a few of the Pros and experts believe, I can guarantee that the rest of December will be dominated by Northerly incursions. January will see the return of the Beasterly. And we will all have a merry Xmas!
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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:
Given the UK is roughly only 250 miles wide it doesn't take much for us to miss out.
Another crucial set of runs beckon.
This is why we should tow the UK 100 miles further north and nudge it east a tad.
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1 minute ago, russell k said:
Probably the 12z suite, which we don't see until 3.30
Maybe the pros see it roll out at the time it is run??
I believe they do see as it rolls out. We will see if it is the12Z in a couple of hours.
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Cairgorm mountain taking a beating today.
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Just now, Ed Stone said:
But I haven't said that it's 'no use' BA...just that it is, in some cases, wholly unrepresentative of what's being suggested. Should a run consist of only two distinct clusters (one at, say, -10C; the other at +10C, for example) what does the mean (0C) really tell you about upcoming events?
In short, it's a Best Guess scenario. If the Op and Control are on the same / similar page, would one not prefer to follow the op / control rather than any of the members?
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5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:
Op and control are outliers which suggests that the second northerly is unlikely. Given the low ppn. signal perhaps a UK or Euro high is the more likely set-up?
Aren't PPN signals based off what patterns the models are generating? Thus it would follow that the PPN signal follows the models, not the other way around.
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7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:
Quibble ye not over the 06z output. Still very cold air over the UK to end next week.
Snow may be limited away from the north and high ground. But cold air is key to keeping the snow in place where it has fallen for the periods when milder air does make a return.
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
The difference is already apparent between the GFS/ECM between day 4&5 with the ECM blowing up the low out of the ESB with the GFS making less of it, normally it's the other way around!
The difference in pressure over Greenland is noticeable. 1045 on the GFS.
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There's only one way to describe what the GFS produced on the 00z.... Utter Filth. FI evolutions are obv chalk & cheese and so I wouldn't look much past this weekend. But what's nice to see is consistency from the GFS Re. a Northerly reload next week. By this weekend, we should have a decent amount of high ground snow. If we get that quick reload next week, with the increased snow amounts progged, it should be a rather decent ski season up there. Fingers crossed for the GFS to keep any blowtorches well away from us!
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Bit of a difference now in the LP in the Atlantic. Tripple pronged with lope heading east and putting a bit more pressure on the HP to our west. Overall, the pattern is broadly similar, but this is where it will start to veer in a slightly different direction.. Will it upgrade or downgrade??
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So far the 12z is showing minute differences to our NE ( Canada / Greenland ). Now comes the interesting phase of chart roll out. What happens to any shortwaves...
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26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The newly named corridor of hope is shown here!
You must maintain a clean flow not interrupted by shortwave energy. I've circled the key features, black shortwaves, the purple is the Pacific troughing moving east.
As you can see from the differences between the GFS 00hrs run to T138 hrs and the new GFS 06hrs run to T132hrs, the latter has the clean flow and also a bit more amplitude to the Pacific troughing.
Events over ne Canada are crucial because as the upstream flow amplifies it phases the low in the west Atlantic with that shortwave over sw Greenland both then head east and you're caught on the wrong side of that amplified wave.
Just having the clean flow won't by itself deliver the northerly within a reasonable timeframe, you'll still need a little bit of luck but theres zero hope if the shortwave shows up to the sw of Greenland.
My money is on greater amplification and a cleaner flow as you have highlighted. Time and again, the models are being stymied in the attempt to return to mild / zonal. December is going to be a blocked month. (Wouldn't bet the house just yet). With the output we are getting run to run, I think we can simply ignore anything beyond day 5.
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Going to pose a theory here. Looking at the ens, the greatest cluster of runs between the 3rd and 5th are roughly following the op. Going with flow I would suggest therefore that the really mild runs (yellow, purple etc) and anything that has deviated well away from this cluster can be binned.
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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:
Seriously though, isn't it about time us coldies had a wee bit of luck? Let's hope the models have got it right, this time?
Doesn't everyone know that the weather gods hate our tiny island.???
Anyway, I would be surprised if the 12z is as good as the 06z. Usual route is for a downgrade followed by a halfway house compromise.
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1 minute ago, carinthian said:
Ends with blighty almost covered in snow . Great stuff. The dream lives on for you snow lovers.
C
BIG IF* this came off.... I will be taking some of my remaining holiday (if not snowed in lol) and finding a big hill locally to go have some serious fun!!
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Everything is further west too which helps immensely.
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Seems to be stronger HP ridging at t.114 as mentioned. Better link up with the HP in greenland & canada. Hopefully more favorable for a quicker reload.
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Having a laugh, that's 384, 240 on ECM is bad enough
Well obv, but it's pretty lol.
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To cheer everyone up.
My two cents. Despite the outputs flip flopping longer term, the consistent feature is the HP to our West. This fits in with my gut feeling that December is going to be Nrlys, interspersed with 'milder' blips. Compare the current setup to the last few winters and I'm rather pleased with whats on offer. No atlantic steam roller insight. I even waxed my snowboard last night. All ready for Xmas sliding!
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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:
Not a great deal of change so far from GFS the high is slightly further SE compared to the 06z but remaining cold nationwide
06z
Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically, would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)
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Europe is so snowless because the weather gods hate us. And if you believe the hysteria... because mankind is evil and artificially heating the planet up. (debate for another thread ;-p)
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It should also be mentioned that even though the models have tried to bring in the Atlantic in recent days, the output and temp charts keep going back to a colder / wintry scenario. That to me suggests that the current pattern is locked in for the foreseeable future. I could be wrong, but given that every downgraded run has seen a re-upgraded run at some point, I'm hopeful for a wintry and festive December.
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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018/19
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Back again for the 8th winter in a row.
Love seeing this thread each year as the winter gathers pace. Usually I am back in much earlier but seem to be busier than normal at the moment with work and family. Had a dusting of snow this morning at work here in Stokenchuch (Bucks). Do we know if science has found that concrete proof of a link between the SAI and our winter prospects yet??