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Gavin Hannah

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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah


  1. Back again for the 8th winter in a row. ❄️  Love seeing this thread each year as the winter gathers pace. Usually I am back in much earlier but seem to be busier than normal at the moment with work and family. Had a dusting of snow this morning at work here in Stokenchuch (Bucks). Do we know if science has found that concrete proof of a link between the SAI and our winter prospects yet?? 😅


  2. Just now, Ed Stone said:

    But I haven't said that it's 'no use' BA...just that it is, in some cases, wholly unrepresentative of what's being suggested. Should a run consist of only two distinct clusters (one at, say, -10C; the other at +10C, for example) what does the mean (0C) really tell you about upcoming events?:)

    In short, it's a Best Guess scenario.  If the Op and Control are on the same / similar page, would one not prefer to follow the op / control rather than any of the members?


  3. There's only one way to describe what the GFS produced on the 00z....  Utter Filth.  FI evolutions are obv chalk & cheese and so I wouldn't look much past this weekend.  But what's nice to see is consistency from the GFS Re. a Northerly reload next week.  By this weekend, we should have a decent amount of high ground snow. If we get that quick reload next week, with the increased snow amounts progged, it should be a rather decent ski season up there.  Fingers crossed for the GFS to keep any blowtorches well away from us!


  4. 26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The newly named corridor of hope is shown here!

    You must maintain a clean flow not interrupted by shortwave energy. I've circled the key features, black shortwaves, the purple is the Pacific troughing moving east.

    As you can see from the differences between the GFS 00hrs run to T138 hrs and the new GFS 06hrs run to T132hrs, the latter has the clean flow and also a bit more amplitude to the Pacific troughing.

    gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.978bf8b51927458c28f45050efc70ca0.png

    gfsnh-0-132.thumb.png.4447830958546ddd2dc2539f7d0bfb44.png

    Events over ne Canada are crucial because as the upstream flow amplifies it phases the low in the west Atlantic with that shortwave over sw Greenland both then head east and you're caught on the wrong side of that amplified wave.

    Just having the clean flow won't by itself deliver the northerly within a reasonable timeframe, you'll still need a little bit of luck but theres zero hope if the shortwave shows up to the sw of Greenland.

     

     

     

     

    My money is on greater amplification and a cleaner flow as you have highlighted. Time and again, the models are being stymied in the attempt to return to mild / zonal. December is going to be a blocked month. (Wouldn't bet the house just yet). With the output we are getting run to run, I think we can simply ignore anything beyond day 5.

     


  5. To cheer everyone up.

    image.thumb.png.d2b3c65fe79096d7c4501bb4a70746d0.png

     

    My two cents. Despite the outputs flip flopping longer term, the consistent feature is the HP to our West.  This fits in with my gut feeling that December is going to be Nrlys, interspersed with 'milder' blips. Compare the current setup to the last few winters and I'm rather pleased with whats on offer. No atlantic steam roller insight. I even waxed my snowboard last night. All ready for Xmas sliding!

     

     


  6. 4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Not a great deal of change so far from GFS the high is slightly further SE compared to the 06z but remaining cold nationwide

    gfs-0-90.thumb.png.644019dde414e7645d18782cc2e0bf0c.pnggfs-1-90.thumb.png.f5f76e95a9bfa1f370f474c0d2cf936f.png

    06z

    gfs-0-96.thumb.png.e6444ac54cd3e0f7ab18f8a0f456828a.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.90db0def26e70a9035a5d5ba0b668af1.png

    Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically,  would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)

     

     


  7. It should also be mentioned that even though the models have tried to bring in the Atlantic in recent days, the output and temp charts keep going back to a colder / wintry scenario.  That to me suggests that the current pattern is locked in for the foreseeable future.  I could be wrong, but given that every downgraded run has seen a re-upgraded run at some point, I'm hopeful for a wintry and festive December.

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