muppet
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Posts posted by muppet
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Thank you. Does anyone have the dates since Winter 2010? Thank you.http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/butler+polvani-GRL-2011.pdf
In this article it's updated till the winter of 2010.
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Thought I'd share the list. Anyone fill in jan 2002 onwards please?
So far I have
Jan 6 or 10 2013
Jan 2 2014
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Does anyone have a link to the precise dates (which I know are contentious) to previous SSWs?
I have a paper by Charlton Perez et al which lists 1952-2002 but nothing afterwards.
Can anyone please help? I think there have been 9 or 10 since jan 2002.
Thank you.
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ok, I have compared non SSW days (and the following days after the start) to SSW periods, for varying amounts of time.
It seems where I am, the most noticeable (?) difference is 2 to 3 weeks after the SSW start, but it only seems to yield 2 or 3 % more snowy/sleety days.
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The only issue I may have is with overlaps.
Eg if there was a ssw on 20 feb and then another year on 25 feb this creates a period of overlap.
I think that doing it this way actually makes snow less likely after a ssw. ?
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Thanks. I guess starting at the first ssw date at the end of the year through to the last at the start of the next, for each year, excluding the 11 day period of each ssw each time.
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I have used daily sleet and snowfall data in Wokingham from Bernard Burton's website and also the dates of SSWs from Andrew Charlton's paper http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/charlton%2Bpolvani-JCLIM-2007.pdf
I have then looked at how many times out of the 16 SSWs we have experienced snow and or sleet in Wokingham after x amount of days.
X axis is the number of days after the SSW date (when winds at 60N and 10hPa first turn easterly from Nov to March.)
Y axis is the frequency of snow and or sleet from 1978-2005 in Wokingham.
I am after suggestions especially how to compare to non SSW years?
It seems there is a 50% chance of sleet or snow in my area within 11 days of the start of a SSW.
Any feedback welcome.
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The AO and NAO both seem to be forecasted to trend negatively and the strat at 10 hPa is 26C warmer on Christmas Day than it is today.
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well it wouldnt as the cold started last week of november and you'd struggle to get a SSW in november !! there are bound to have been cold spells with no SSW cause. not really for this thread though.
Sorry, I was just answering the question ?
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Thanks BA, I think. When I get the time I'll try and trawl through the archives and see what I come up with, the only cold spell I can remember without a SSW is February 1991.
The famous Dec of 2010 with its CET of -0.7C didn't have SSW.
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Sorry, don't think there is any particular link to the strat in those graphs - the temperatures for that location are all above average for the near future and are cooling towards normal later on as NWP tend to.
I was wondering if the ssw was influencing the fall in temps at 500, 850 an 2m. Looks like it may be.
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The forecast for zonal negative winds are really strengthening.
6th -1ms
7th -4
8th -11
9th -13
http://maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php
With activity moving down the 500mb and 850mb
http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97
And down to 2m
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The latest ECM run has the SSW on the 5th, with mean windspeeds a little slower than previous runs, but nevertheless still easterlies.
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Are there records of SSW indices anywhere (or proxy indicators)?
I feel a little bit of number crunching if anyone can source some.
Thanks.
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The GFS model (one below is for Reading) now extends to the 13th and clearly the temps at 850 and 500 mb are plummeting.
http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97
and 2m temps follow suite.
Interesting as someone suggested ssw on 4th would be felt lower down in the trop around the 15th or so.
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Been working on my own beginners "strat watch" page:
http://www.maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php
It gives me a quick overview of what's going on without clicking around much.
Any additions or suggestions are welcome.
:-)
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Here you are. Where the arrow points at; 10hpa, 60N
Superb thanks seb and blue army.
Where can I get access to charts like these? (And a range of days?)
Thanks. I find this thread fascinating, informative and friendly.
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Hi, which of these forecast graphs should I track to spot a SSW?
Thanks
http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng
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Absolute strat novice here.
Has anyone looked at the correlation stats?
What correlates well with colder UK temps in DJF?
AO? SSTs? QBO? Strat?
What sort of lead times should you expect?
I know some think that the strat is a piece of the huge jigsaw, but how large a piece is it?
Significantly correlated or not?
What did the pieces look like in the run up to 62/3 and 2010 (admittedly snow events) or other colder winters?
Thanks
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No problem. I just think that it would give a better indication.
I got excited when I saw snow risk was 80% but then realised it was 80% of 20%!
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Thanks. Wouldn't it be clearer to then say the snow risk is 40% (using my eg) ?
Just an idea?
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A question about the ten day forecast on here
Eg http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=64c75737ac7a8d709380168361cff94b
Is the snow risk % really that or should it be multiplied by the precip risk %?
So if the precip risk is 50% and then the snow risk is 80%, is the real snow risk 50%x80%=40% ?
Thanks
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I've finally found a complete list from 1958 onwards. I guess there was no SSW in 2013/14?