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Everything posted by muppet

  1. ok, I have compared non SSW days (and the following days after the start) to SSW periods, for varying amounts of time. It seems where I am, the most noticeable (?) difference is 2 to 3 weeks after the SSW start, but it only seems to yield 2 or 3 % more snowy/sleety days.
  2. The only issue I may have is with overlaps. Eg if there was a ssw on 20 feb and then another year on 25 feb this creates a period of overlap. I think that doing it this way actually makes snow less likely after a ssw. ?
  3. Thanks. I guess starting at the first ssw date at the end of the year through to the last at the start of the next, for each year, excluding the 11 day period of each ssw each time.
  4. I have used daily sleet and snowfall data in Wokingham from Bernard Burton's website and also the dates of SSWs from Andrew Charlton's paper http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/charlton%2Bpolvani-JCLIM-2007.pdf I have then looked at how many times out of the 16 SSWs we have experienced snow and or sleet in Wokingham after x amount of days. X axis is the number of days after the SSW date (when winds at 60N and 10hPa first turn easterly from Nov to March.) Y axis is the frequency of snow and or sleet from 1978-2005 in Wokingham. I am after suggestions especially how to compare to non SSW y
  5. The famous Dec of 2010 with its CET of -0.7C didn't have SSW.
  6. I was wondering if the ssw was influencing the fall in temps at 500, 850 an 2m. Looks like it may be.
  7. The forecast for zonal negative winds are really strengthening. 6th -1ms 7th -4 8th -11 9th -13 http://maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php With activity moving down the 500mb and 850mb http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97 And down to 2m http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1
  8. The latest ECM run has the SSW on the 5th, with mean windspeeds a little slower than previous runs, but nevertheless still easterlies. http://maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php
  9. Are there records of SSW indices anywhere (or proxy indicators)? I feel a little bit of number crunching if anyone can source some. Thanks.
  10. The GFS model (one below is for Reading) now extends to the 13th and clearly the temps at 850 and 500 mb are plummeting. http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97 and 2m temps follow suite. http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 Interesting as someone suggested ssw on 4th would be felt lower down in the trop around the 15th or so.
  11. Been working on my own beginners "strat watch" page: http://www.maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php It gives me a quick overview of what's going on without clicking around much. Any additions or suggestions are welcome. :-)
  12. Got it. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng Superb.
  13. Superb thanks seb and blue army. Where can I get access to charts like these? (And a range of days?) Thanks. I find this thread fascinating, informative and friendly.
  14. Hi, which of these forecast graphs should I track to spot a SSW? Thanks http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng
  15. Absolute strat novice here. Has anyone looked at the correlation stats? What correlates well with colder UK temps in DJF? AO? SSTs? QBO? Strat? What sort of lead times should you expect? I know some think that the strat is a piece of the huge jigsaw, but how large a piece is it? Significantly correlated or not? What did the pieces look like in the run up to 62/3 and 2010 (admittedly snow events) or other colder winters? Thanks
  16. will this go over the next few days? the London value may do??
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