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muppet

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  1. I've finally found a complete list from 1958 onwards. I guess there was no SSW in 2013/14?
  2. Thank you. Does anyone have the dates since Winter 2010? Thank you.
  3. Thought I'd share the list. Anyone fill in jan 2002 onwards please? So far I have Jan 6 or 10 2013 Jan 2 2014
  4. Does anyone have a link to the precise dates (which I know are contentious) to previous SSWs? I have a paper by Charlton Perez et al which lists 1952-2002 but nothing afterwards. Can anyone please help? I think there have been 9 or 10 since jan 2002. Thank you.
  5. ok, I have compared non SSW days (and the following days after the start) to SSW periods, for varying amounts of time. It seems where I am, the most noticeable (?) difference is 2 to 3 weeks after the SSW start, but it only seems to yield 2 or 3 % more snowy/sleety days.
  6. The only issue I may have is with overlaps. Eg if there was a ssw on 20 feb and then another year on 25 feb this creates a period of overlap. I think that doing it this way actually makes snow less likely after a ssw. ?
  7. Thanks. I guess starting at the first ssw date at the end of the year through to the last at the start of the next, for each year, excluding the 11 day period of each ssw each time.
  8. I have used daily sleet and snowfall data in Wokingham from Bernard Burton's website and also the dates of SSWs from Andrew Charlton's paper http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/charlton%2Bpolvani-JCLIM-2007.pdf I have then looked at how many times out of the 16 SSWs we have experienced snow and or sleet in Wokingham after x amount of days. X axis is the number of days after the SSW date (when winds at 60N and 10hPa first turn easterly from Nov to March.) Y axis is the frequency of snow and or sleet from 1978-2005 in Wokingham. I am after suggestions especially how to compare to non SSW years? It seems there is a 50% chance of sleet or snow in my area within 11 days of the start of a SSW. Any feedback welcome.
  9. The AO and NAO both seem to be forecasted to trend negatively and the strat at 10 hPa is 26C warmer on Christmas Day than it is today.
  10. The famous Dec of 2010 with its CET of -0.7C didn't have SSW.
  11. I was wondering if the ssw was influencing the fall in temps at 500, 850 an 2m. Looks like it may be.
  12. The forecast for zonal negative winds are really strengthening. 6th -1ms 7th -4 8th -11 9th -13 http://maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php With activity moving down the 500mb and 850mb http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97 And down to 2m http://meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=0&lat=51.45&lon=-0.97&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1
  13. The latest ECM run has the SSW on the 5th, with mean windspeeds a little slower than previous runs, but nevertheless still easterlies. http://maidenerleghweather.com/strat.php
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