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Earth Wind and Snow

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    South Kilkenny Ireland
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    All Sports, music and of course The Weather
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    Snow, Frost, Thunder and Storms

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  1. Hi Nick I don't think they have updated yet. ..they look like last night's....some tasty looking ensembles tonight tying in with Ian Fergusons post EWS
  2. Yes Paul that is another example. Maybe not clutching at so many straws based on IF's latest update. I also saw a post from the respected Roger J Smith the other day stating that next bout of cold would come from the east or north-east. EWS
  3. 09 December 2009 - very mild south-westerlies covering British Isles 10 December 2009 - wave of high pressure pushes up from the Azores Leading to this which was the beginning of a long cold spell Many more examples in the archives - not a million miles away from the current thinking of JMA, GEM and ECM JMA Chart Day 6 GEM Chart Day 6 ECM Chart Day 7 ECM Chart Day 10 A lot of water to flow under the bridge but worth keeping an eye on that build of pressure from the south-west and whether it can join with pressure to our north-east to build a new cold block. Anomoly charts are also hinting at something similar to the ECM, JMA and GEM evolutions - we may have hit on our next path to cold - maybe EWS
  4. Yes GEM has shown this for last three runs. now ECM and also JMA are hinting at this evolution also - hopefully this trend will grow stronger over coming days
  5. Yes some nice GEFS ensembles tonight - a good portion showing heights to our north with wintry synoptics for British Isles in the later ranges - hopefully they are on to something - I have not seen anything from Ian F in a while but last I heard he suggested a potentially blocked and colder spell later in February - maybe GEFS now picking up on this signal - the operationals may not show anything of note at the moment but hopefully a few days from now, we will be looking at much more promising charts in the 7-10 day range - it would be nice to see one very cold wintry spell before winter is out as opposed to the rather uninspiring efforts to date in Dec and Jan - maybe third time lucky.... EWS
  6. Met Eireann have upgraded the Snow / Ice Weather Warning to amber for most parts and accumulations of 4-8 cms's - highest on high ground. A status Yellow warning in place for Leinster and east Munster for up to 4 cm's again highest totals on high ground - valid from early hours Tuesday to Wednesday morning. Hopefully everyone looking for snow gets their wish over the next 36 hours - milder and stormy on Wednesday and then turning colder again for rest of the week with showers turning to sleet / snow again by Friday EWS
  7. the 18z not far off giving us an easterly in FI - doesn't make it this run but another option on the table longer term if the high to our north-west dos not sink as fast as the GFS shows http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html
  8. Sorry can't post a link - I checked and it is on Exacta's fb weather page with a map showing much colder than normal sea temperatures currently stretching from gulf to Ireland / UK. I know I know, James Madden is a sensationalist at the best of times but leaving that aside, assuming this information is correct I was wondering how this might effect the models take on things Speaking of the models, there seems to be an upgrade tonight for cold prospects with ECM, JMA, NAVGEM and to a lesser extent GFS all showing a cold shot for Christmas Eve & Day, brief mild spell then a northerly setting in soon after Crimbo - I agree with other posters that the models such as ECM that delay the onset of cold are showing a better profile for extending the cold EWS
  9. just a question for some of the more knowledgeable on here - I noticed on another site that the waters in the atlantic stretching from the gulf stream towards Ireland and UK are much colder than normal - do the models factor this in or will this have any effect on our weather? would these colder waters be of help if a cold spell develops for lowland snow or would this actually be a driver? I see Tamara, John Holmes and others have given excellent detailed analysis on how things may pan out, however I do not see these much colder than normal sea temperatures stretching from the gulf stream being mentioned as a factor? thanks in advance EWS
  10. Looks like the Christmas to New Year period could be interesting based on current model outputs - winds mostly from the north would obviously favour you guys living in northern and north-western areas should charts verify - however we cannot rule out a few disturbances coming down in the flow giving potentially snow chances on a wider scale. Personally I feel that this change in pattern which looks like taking place will come too soon for Christmas, as often in these cases, shortwaves delay the onset of the coldest uppers by a day or two, than earlier modeled - I would plump that it turns cooler by Christmas with nice crisp days and frosty nights with some wintry showers giving a chance of snow to higher areas further north but possibly also to a few lucky ones at lower levels - 27th or 28th onwards would be my guess for real cold to plunge south bringing a greater risk of snow to more low lying areas over a wider area. again assuming this pattern change occurs, the next thing to look out for is how long will it last - will it be a 3-4 day toppler or a James Madden inspired 2 month snowfest - or something in between - lets go along for the ride and see where this takes us........ usual caveats apply EWS
  11. Less severe? Looks more like a different world compared to what we have endured so far this winter. There's hardly a breadth of wind to be seen and not much in the way of precipitation it would seem on those two charts albeit it a tad chilly.
  12. Today was probably the most severe storm I have ever experienced. Probably even worse than the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 which was something to behold. Total carnage all around this area today with roofs totally blown off buildings, trees uprooted, power cuts and a few vehicles, mostly lorries overturned. At one stage the 4 storey building I was in for a while this afternoon, was literally swaying and people were genuinely panicking that it was going to collapse. Scary stuff and shows how mother nature in all her ferocity is something not to mess with. These severe storms along with all the flooding of the past 2 months will surely mean that this winter will go down as a record breaker when the stats are compiled. On a par with the severe winters of 1946/47 and 1962/63 but for very different reasons of course. In addition, today's storm came after a particularly cold day yesterday where many places saw falling, and in some cases lying snow. Incidentally it's interesting looking at Met Eireann's latest weather reports for the past few hours that Cork (apart from Knock Airport which is on high ground) has been experiencing snow showers while the showers in the rest of the country much further north are reporting rain. Quite unusual. I think this winter still has a bit to run yet with another storm due Friday which could bring more damaging winds, flooding to the south and possibly snow to the north. Also some tentative signs looking at some recent model output that late Feb / early March may see things settle down somewhat, however I wouldn't bet against it also turning progressively colder with perhaps a sting in winters tail and a cold start to Spring possibly in the offing which would carry the risk of frost & snow - all a long way off but worth watching the models over next few days or more to see if this becomes an increasing possibility. EWS
  13. GFS not following ECM's idea thus far of higher pressure building to our north with lows on a more southerly track ECM at 240 GFS at 240 Big differences - will be interesting to see if ECM continues its trend tomorrow or whether it reverts to something akin to GFS output EWS
  14. In fairness in recent years, the weather seems to get stuck in a rut for long periods of time for whatever reason - mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 - cold and snowy, summer and autumn 2010 - wet, late november 2010 to late January 2011 - very cold (snowy in earlier period), summer 2011 - wet, autumn 2011 mild, winter 2011-2012 mostly mild and wet, summer 2012 - wet, late Feb to early April 2013 - cold wih snowfalls, summer 2013 - warm and often dry, autumn 2013 - wet and now winter 2013/2014 stormy & wet. I would wager a bet that when the pattern changes to whatever that will be - it will lock in for a while. Ine the meantime I hope CC is right and we start to see some better charts showing up in the near future for a late winter / early spring cold spell with some snow - if not some spring warmth would be nice EWS
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