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Earth Wind and Snow

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  • Location
    South Kilkenny Ireland
  • Interests
    All Sports, music and of course The Weather
  • Weather Preferences
    Snow, Frost, Thunder and Storms

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  1. the 18z not far off giving us an easterly in FI - doesn't make it this run but another option on the table longer term if the high to our north-west dos not sink as fast as the GFS shows http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html
  2. Sorry can't post a link - I checked and it is on Exacta's fb weather page with a map showing much colder than normal sea temperatures currently stretching from gulf to Ireland / UK. I know I know, James Madden is a sensationalist at the best of times but leaving that aside, assuming this information is correct I was wondering how this might effect the models take on things Speaking of the models, there seems to be an upgrade tonight for cold prospects with ECM, JMA, NAVGEM and to a lesser extent GFS all showing a cold shot for Christmas Eve & Day, brief mild spell then a northerly set
  3. just a question for some of the more knowledgeable on here - I noticed on another site that the waters in the atlantic stretching from the gulf stream towards Ireland and UK are much colder than normal - do the models factor this in or will this have any effect on our weather? would these colder waters be of help if a cold spell develops for lowland snow or would this actually be a driver? I see Tamara, John Holmes and others have given excellent detailed analysis on how things may pan out, however I do not see these much colder than normal sea temperatures stretching from the gulf stream
  4. Less severe? Looks more like a different world compared to what we have endured so far this winter. There's hardly a breadth of wind to be seen and not much in the way of precipitation it would seem on those two charts albeit it a tad chilly.
  5. Today was probably the most severe storm I have ever experienced. Probably even worse than the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 which was something to behold. Total carnage all around this area today with roofs totally blown off buildings, trees uprooted, power cuts and a few vehicles, mostly lorries overturned. At one stage the 4 storey building I was in for a while this afternoon, was literally swaying and people were genuinely panicking that it was going to collapse. Scary stuff and shows how mother nature in all her ferocity is something not to mess with. These severe storms along with all the
  6. GFS not following ECM's idea thus far of higher pressure building to our north with lows on a more southerly track ECM at 240 GFS at 240 Big differences - will be interesting to see if ECM continues its trend tomorrow or whether it reverts to something akin to GFS output EWS
  7. In fairness in recent years, the weather seems to get stuck in a rut for long periods of time for whatever reason - mid December 2009 to mid January 2010 - cold and snowy, summer and autumn 2010 - wet, late november 2010 to late January 2011 - very cold (snowy in earlier period), summer 2011 - wet, autumn 2011 mild, winter 2011-2012 mostly mild and wet, summer 2012 - wet, late Feb to early April 2013 - cold wih snowfalls, summer 2013 - warm and often dry, autumn 2013 - wet and now winter 2013/2014 stormy & wet. I would wager a bet that when the pattern changes to whatever that will be -
  8. Its also not inconceivable to believe we wont see upgrades regarding alaskan ridges and a split vortex Would i be surprised if February is as mild and stormy as Jan and Feb - No Would I be surprised if we see a very cold spell before February is over - No That's because our weather is full of surprises EWS
  9. A lot of 'winter is over' posts in here today on 28th January 1994 - after a very uninspiring winter - this was the chart for 31st January with a raging vortex to our north-west, high pressure to our south and the pattern 'seemingly set' 14th February 1994 - heavy snowfalls spreading across the UK and Ireland from the east - here is south-east Ireland we had snow showers and a light covering on the 14th Feb and then heavy prolonged snowfall leaving 7 inches of snow cover on the 15th In mid February 2005 after a failed easterly attempt (like we see this week) - people
  10. If all models only went out to + 144 and the majority were showing something like this - we would all be salivating at the mouth. Unfortunately this chart is + 24 and its all expected to go pear shaped soon after with the atlantic blasting through and the cold high to the north-east sinking south-east wards. However it is a close call and may still bring something wintry to north-eastern spots before / during the breakdown. The good thing is that we get this close to a bitter easterly despite the raging vortex and unfavorable back ground signals. Sometimes we need two or three at
  11. GEFS ensembles up to + 168 and the vast majority of members are sliders in the 120-144 hour range including the control run - likely to be some stella runs in there when fully updated A lot of the runs look similar to UKMO at 120 also EWS
  12. ECM looks a little like the Met update Turning colder midweek with easterly then a breakdown from the west - still cold with sleet / snow likely in places especially the north and high ground temperatures returning to average later EWS
  13. A huge change in the mean charts towards cold persisting and undercutting lows on ECM - considering there is probably a cluster of milder members those charts are as cold as we could hope with plenty of precipitation about - if we could just pull the pattern a little further west, most would be at risk of snow over next 10 days Exciting times EWS
  14. Sorry 2014 - still trying to get my head around the change of year - amended now Yes some places managed some snow in 2007 but the earlier predicted freeze by the models leading up to that event failed to materialize I think Scotland also managed some snow from he 2001 event but again the widespread severe spell failed to land EWS
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