Snow and storms

Records are being broken... I don't think I've ever seen 4cm of snow melt so quickly

Was always going to be a disappointment when coming from a southerly direction. Dragged all the warm mush into the system. The only way this could of worked is if turned straight into an easterly as the low passed over. Think I need to move to Chicago and experience something worth being on the news

decent covering up on the ridge in hastings, between 4-6cm i reckon, that back building on the radar looks like it might hit us, hope it does and stays heavy.

so is the snow written off for tonight? people been banging on for days how good the chances are for snow tonight even yesterday im seeing maps with tons of snow on and now the BBC says no, met office gives warning of snow but it's predicting rain on it's forecast. Looks like we'll be lucky to get a dusting at this rate.... im sure exactly the same will happen for thursday

Wow, this has to go down as the greatest disapointment ever... a week ago i looked at the synoptics and thought this is finally our real chance to get a proper snowy and cold prolonged spell. I wish i never looked at any posts and went with my gut that was saying something will go wrong because even being in the perfect spot for a full on easterly blast we have ended up with the most pathetic event. Beast from the east? The most inappropriate term ever used, this is like a small yapping dog, with an enoying bark and no bite. A 2 week plus spell got reduced to a week of cold bitter temperatures with -13 wind temps so i accepted that sucks but at least we get a week. Next minute its reduced to a 2 day event of snow all tuesday and a bit wednesday. Going to bed last night i thought ok its started and will wake up to a decent covering with snow showers all day. !!how wrong i was, barely 1cm of snow, nothing on the roads and now the forecast barely shows any snow all day with not much hope for the rest of the week. The cold is then brushed aside with the first low that says ''boo". This has been blown so out of porportion even by experienced members, and its this im most frustrated by, if i had posted the south east will only get a 1cm of snow out of that setup and will be shunted away easily i would have been slated last week. We wont even get a single ice day after seeing -16 850temps showing on the charts i thought this would be certain. Everyone including myself has been taken in by the hype of this cold fart and its realy ruined my love of weather watching this time. It feels completely pointless looking at a weather chart now and reading all the intelligent posts, its hard enough working out which members opinions to follow because theres so many people that forecast on their feelings rather than facts including a lot of long time 'experts'. One big example is how many people ignored the blidningly obvious charts showing that the low would fInish our cold spell in the south because cold air is so dense and so hard to move. Rather than actually taking the evidence of what the charts were showing we are all dragged into this hype that The Cold Beast will deflect it like some indestructible bad super hero movie. well thats my rant over, ill go back to being slated by the family as 'The Weather Fool' because to them the bbc forecast and daily mail are more accurate than a few thousand weather enthusiasts. One last leaving comment is i recommend setting up a model discussion area that allows only a select few experts with no biased opinions to comment on the charts and leave one open to amateurs and childhood snow dreamers. see you all next year for another go round the merry go round!

Could the sea ice increase this year be linked to the lack of storms and early separation of the PV which was also common in 1962/63 winter? It seems to me like this is a recipe for creating calm sea conditions in the north would lead to an increase of the sea freezing up nicely, usually there is a constant raging storms rolling around the north through autumn churning up the seas.

Any other south easterners getting sick and tired of northlies? They are just like dangling carrots for us in the south east corner. Cold little blips, Promising so much early on the charts then always dampened down and never cold enough for us. Would prefer the atlantic train because at least i wouldnt waste hours of my time on here getting excited only to be severly dissapointed. Cant wait for the beasterly to arrive and get a proper bit of winter weather down here! ... and breathe... wow this thread is so needed!

Whats peoples opinions on the south downs getting a pasting tomorrow? Surely it must be close to being all snow up there given the slight elevation.

Not sure if this is the right thread, I had a good look but couldn't find a more suitable place to post it. Although it's not discussing the model outputs I think it's relevant to a forecasting discussion. I am intrigued to know what the more experienced members think of this early season colds effect on the sea temperatures and the consequences down the line. Compared to the last few years we had a reasonably cold end to autumn and with the shots of northerly blasts it's been a cold beginning to winter at times. Surely the lack of autumn storms also plays a part as this season the seas have been a lot calmer than usual. Does this have an effect on the sea temperatures? For instance a calm pond will freeze a lot easier than a slow flowing river not just because one is continuously moving but because the cold will be mixed a lot more in a flow. Will this tie in with a more probable shot of a long term cold winter and has a quiet autumn with a cold start to the season led to colder winters as a whole in the past? Also could someone point me in the direction of some SST charts that I and others can monitor to see if it has any effects in this current spell. Thanks!

https://www.facebook.com/livemap/#@24.56211235799689,-81.61674499511719,10z Found this guy on Facebook live using thermal cam recording.

I am reading from various online sources that all of Key West has lost power now hence the cams being down. The last images from the cams suggesting the water had risen quite a bit.

I use my winter tyres all year round on my 4x4 as i cant affoard to have both sets. The performance is fine in summer, about a 10% drop in performance which isnt even noticeable, it will however help you up nearly any hill in ice and snow within reason through out winter and is so much better through a lot of autumn and spring where temps regulary hover around 8 degrees which means your grip is outperforming most road users in the conditions your most likely to have an accident. The downside to this is your tyres will wear quicker in the summer but if you get a good quality set they will still last a few years unless your doing silly mileage in which case you should have a second set anyway. Mine are on there second winter and the tread is still great. There is a video online that shows a standard fwd car with winter tyres climbing a indoor snow hill against a 4x4 with traction control but normal tyres, the car wins by a long way, the 4x4 can barely get going. It also shows a standard car with normal tyres that cant even move.

Everyone who keeps going on about Heathrow cancling flights, this is pretty standard, they have the whole evening packed with flights due in & out, their visibility is going to be massivly reduced even in sleet, the runway will likely see some snow that will need clearing, it will also need gritting & de-icing which all means they can't land/take off the normal amount of planes in the given time slot. It's pretty irrelevant if the snow is heavy or lays, even a little bit will cancle some flights as they have so much more to do. Give them a break, they are taking the right steps so far.

I completely agree, I have a 4 wheel drive rav that is ok with normal tyres but it's defiantly no better at going down an icey hill, changing all tyres to winter ones was a great choice especially as my work is on a farm off the beaten track.I actually use these through the summer aswell to avoid the costs of 2 sets, they are around 10% less effective than a standard tyre in the summer but probably more than 60% effective as soon as you have any ice or snow and are more effective through out most of winter when we have any temps 8 degrees or below. Highly recommend everyone gets winter tyres and if you can't affoard it, don't try and go out driving with standard tyres because you either crash or at the very least block the road. I didn't appreciate the noraml 30minute drive home a couple of years back taking 5 hours due to people not being able to get up a hill.

the high pressure laying down to our south west at 168hrs, is this not considered a bartlett high? i struggle to see this moving any time fast especially with the jet riding over the top and a weak polar vortex. Would i be right in saying that we can either hope for an easterly high to push it west/a north easterly to slide against it/it to link up with a long draw scandi high?