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Everything posted by Mark Neal.
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Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Mark Neal. replied to Seasonal Trim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Heating on again! It does half get cool/cold quick as the sun dissappears at the moment. Especially when the high is 15c. -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ICON-Very Good GFS 00Z- Less Good UKMO 00Z- Very Good GFS P 00Z- Very Good. GEM 00Z- Very Good. Encouraging 00z Runs imo.... obviously the GFS Op is a concern and we will see where it sits in the ensembles coming up. There is a trend to make more of the LP moving up from SE, making it more more marginally further SE, but as the GFSP shows it won't be for long and then the cold air returns even for the far south.. widespread snow potential is still there! -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Mark Neal. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Horray for the GFSP! Widespread snowfall as the weekend goes on.... far cry from the 18z GFS, 00Z GFS. lets hope that is the one, UKMO. ICON Vvery good too.. 357 members online at 4:30am -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Mark Neal. replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep makes more of the low pressure in the NW, moving through Wales and into SW before clearing Central Southern parts. You also have a secondary feature which moves down from the NE, from the North Sea. Weakening as it heads south. -
Model Output Discussion - Into the new year
Mark Neal. replied to SMU's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Mark Neal. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
18Z Harmonie keeps things more western and southern as it comes down from NW, although there is streams of showers/from the E/NE as behind the front. Here is the frames from 3am Monday morning through to 6pm Monday evening. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Mark Neal. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes your correct! The totals especially centrally and southern weren't much its when the wrap around or pivot comes back through Monday that gives many areas an extra few cm's. The lucky ones from this could see snow for much of the day and get more when the pivots come back around, its an interesting watch! -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Mark Neal. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The aforementioned Euro4. 18z. Shows the low pressure in Ireland and then NW, coming through Wales and does come through parts of central england and southern, not as organised band as ICON but there is still some snow showing and system does pivot through course of Monday. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year
Mark Neal. replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
18Z Arpege. Certainly not showing a snowy picture compared to the ICON/UKV. It does have a secondary low that moves in off the North Sea later on monday and into tuesday that sweeps down into E.Anglia and then SE.