cornishbrooksy

Following this one closely..James Reynolds a.k.a. Typhoon Hunter has travelled with a couple of other Mets to the expected eye location. A note on the intensities given by the USA...they are 1-min sustained, JMA uses 10-min sustained, which is where the disparity comes from. JMA is the official agency of this basin so there figures should be used (however I, and a lot of other people prefer the JTWC). This is an incredible storm, and how they cannot justify Recon in this basin is beyond me. This is much likely stronger than the analysis techniques, and wouldnt be completely unreasonable if 160+ knots was seen out of this. I pray for the Phillipines.

Landfall was around 180km east of here, but according to HKO it still maintains Severe Typhoon intensity. Im going out for a scout around as its nearing its close approach to HK around 110km to the NE. Pressures been dropping nicely through the day and seeing current pressures around 985mPa.

Taken from the first HKO bulletin....note "severe threat to HK" and mentioning its a "mature typhoon, still at Super Typhoon strength" (actually JTWC downgraded it in the last bulletin to Typhoon. Usagi is a mature typhoon, and has been moving steadilywest-northwest this morning at the intensity of a SuperTyphoon. It will come rather close to the vicinity of thePearl River Estuary on Sunday and Monday and pose severethreat to Hong Kong. According to the present forecasttrack, local winds are expected to strengthen tonight andtomorrow morning, and the Observatory will issue the StrongWind Signal No. 3 accordingly. Local weather willdeteriorate significantly with rough seas and squally heavyshowers tomorrow. Under the effect of the astronomical hightide, storm surge induced by Usagi may also lead to floodingin low-lying areas. The public should remain vigilant, andtake precautions against strong winds and flooding as earlyas possible.

And I'm back! So this is an interesting one....JTWC consistently (for 3 days now) put this on direct collision with HK. People starting to take a bit of notice now, but unfortunately a series of wear T8's and a T10 with not much impact last year have meant a lot of people not really concerned for this. From what i can gather it will landfall close or on top of HK...the crucial thing is if it passes to north or south. If north then we will escape a lot of the damage and it will help. A pass to the south would mean the right front quadrant bringing a strong risk of storm surge (see Typhoon Wanda, 1962)....and stronger winds. Certainly getting interesting...the clockwise wind movement already seen in local weather indicates we are in the wind field already. Cloud expected to build later on today with things getting bad tomorrow. T1 warning issued at 10:40am HKT today as soon as it crossed the 800km boundary showing how alert HKO are being with this. I hope people take this as seriously as they need to.

Back to where I start getting excited again. unfortunately I have decided to be on holiday this week, so will not be in Hong Kong. Earlier when the models were sending it straight for HK I was wishing it away, and it should stay south but still bring gale force winds to hong kong next week. I hope the Phillipines are prepared for this one...it has just been upgraded to super Typhoon by JTWC and will make landfall in the next few hours. My thoughts are with everybody there right now.

Im back on holiday from HK, and based in the Ilchester Area, approx 5 miles north of Yeovil. Seems to be distant lightning (around 6 strokes CG in last 10 minutes), approx 20-30 miles away, no thunder heard...so taunton was looking at you. Pleasant surprise as was a clear evening, and this band popped out of nowhere.

Another storm to keep an eye on.....HKO predicting this to slam into Taiwan as a 205kmh Super Typhoon. Real bad news, but the mountains of Taiwan expected to pull it apart and re-emerge as a Cat1 Typhoon. Still would not like to be in Taiwan this coming week. JTWC currently have this passing very close to Hong Kong as a borderline Typhoon/Tropical Storm....this season is crazy active for us this year. The models seem in tight agreement, although the ECMWF 00z forecast has it running along the south china south, reaching Hainan Island then doiung a U-turn back towards us.....unlikely scenario i feel. It is picking up speed now, although lots of uncertainty, i suspect if its slower than predicted, the ridging from the north could force it south of Taiwan and into the SCS.....becoming a major threat to the whole south china coast. Def one to keep an eye on..

Real sad new about the deaths from Kai-Tak, quite substantial. Here in HK it had little effect...we had the signal 8 raised for the 3rd time this year (average is just over once a year), so has been quite active. This storm was quite similar to TS Doksuri for us earlier in the year, nothing particualr to note, few gales here and there, but no adverse effects here. Stayed around 200km to the south of us.

Keeping my eye on this one too! Latest JTWC update has it making landfall as a Cat1 Typhoon 20nm East of Hong Kong.....time to batten down the hatches yet again!

Certainly did. Had this one down for a signal number 3 and passing pretty harmlessly to the south as a TS. Even the observatory said no more than TS...then STS...then TY....then STY. Crazy intensification. Worst has def passed us now, T8 signal still up, but will be lowered around 10am HKT, then can get back to work. News reports are saying around 50 injured here, and about 400 downed trees. Not to shabby, but i expect there will be further reports later when people can get out and assess properly. Was suprised that even through the whole night electricity supply and internet and mobile phone signals never falterred. Seriously impressive. Also of note, it went against everything even though all the models were in tight agreement. 10amHKT yesterday and the entire system stalled and made a jolt for the north, could tell something was up then. Not bad for a boy from somerset to experience a "direct hit" from a category 4 hurricane. Beautiful.

I'm here!! Just been out for a little recon. Hong Kong is getting absolutely hammered here now, gusts in places up to 180km/h. Cant believe how this storm evolved, when i woke up this morning it was a mid tropical storm, and went crazy just south of hong Kong. Looks like landfall will be in the next hour about 100km away. HKO issued the signal number 10, first time since 1999, and that is currently active, as well as 4 other warnings (Landslip, SPecial Announcement of Flooding in the Northern New Territories, Thunderstorm, and Amber Rainstorm). Struggling to sleeep tonight as everything is ratling and shaking. Not too much damage that ive seen, a few trees downed, signs knocked over, but doesnt look like a huge amount of structural damage, but the full extent wont be known until sunrise.

Just wondering, will the remnants of Daniel and Amelia develop into invests in the WPAC? Obviously they will weaken, but some convection will surely remain, and then they maybe picked up again by the WPAC tropical cyclone paths?

Believe me im watching this one! Looks like intensity will not be that big though...saying it will be a low tropical storm.

Just some observations from HK. T3 strong wind signal was raised on Monday evening, although apart from in a couple of really exposed places, windspeeds never got above a light breeze. The T3 signal was lowered Tuesday morning at 10am, and a few hours later the T1 signal was dropped completely. Looked like it had a good chance, but from the appearence there was not much of the storm to the north of the circulation, and left us with a mildly breezy and sunny day. Only good thing is that today has left us with very hot weather....beautiful!

At 11am HKT, HKO upgraded this to a tropical depression. "The Tropical Depression over the seas to the east of Hainan Island is expected to be slow-moving at first. It will maintain a distance from Hong Kong and may not pose direct threat to Hong Kong in short term. In case the Tropical Depression shows signs of further intensification or moving closer to Hong Kong, the Observatory will consider issuing the Standby Signal No.1. Members of the public should pay close attention to the latest weather information from the Observatory. Issued at 11:07 HKT 17/Jun/2012" As said before, models have this upto TS strength, and moving across the south of HK, so i expect a T1 signal to be issued within the next 24 hours.

Invest 92W has formed east of Hainan Island. WTPQ21 RJTD 161800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 19.3N 111.9E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 998HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 19.7N 112.5E 120NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT = Some already say it is a TD, but JTWC still say medium chance. GFS models have is passing very close to Hong Kong on in 96 hours, reaching Tropical Storm strength.

Yeh...an hour after i posted they upgraded it to Typhoon, then 2 hours later a severe typhoon. Overnight last night they upgraded it again to a super typhoon.

It's odd that HKO are still calling this a severe tropical storm....i noticed the slow down before it curved to the north.

Did not expect to see something spin up so late in the year...and looks like neither did the Phillipines. Great shame to see such massive loss of life...shows that even these tropical storms shouldnt be messed with regardless of their strength.

So i have been made a very happy person today by Nesat. My first proper experience of a typhoon. HKO issued the Number 8 typhoon signal at around 5am this morning, essentially meaning all work shuts down, financial markets...and so on. But it is still 350km away so nothing more than a typical blowy day in the UK. It turned slightly more north overnight as HKO did not originally think the Signal 8 was going to be needed and winds picked up sufficiently. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15103005

Tropical Cyclone Standby Signal Number 1 just raised here in Hong Kong Doesnt mean a lot yet...but always raises the heartrate a bit when you see it! "Standby Signal, No. 1 Tropical Cyclone BulletinHere is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by theHong Kong Observatory.The Standby Signal, No. 1 was issued at 10:40 p.m.This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.At 11 p.m., Typhoon Nesat was estimated to be about 760kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 17.0 degrees north118.7 degrees east) and is forecast to move west orwest-northwest at about 22 kilometres per hour across thenorthern part of the South China Sea.Typhoon Nesat moved across Luzon today and entered the SouthChina Sea this afternoon. It continued to track west towest-northwest steadily. According to the present forecasttrack, Nesat will edge closer to the coast of Guangdong. Itsassociated rainband will start to affect Hong Kong latertomorrow.As Nesat is still a distance from Hong Kong, the chance ofStrong Wind Signal, No.3 overnight and tomorrow morning isnot high, but there will be swells, the public should be onthe alert."

Ive been away this weekend in Singapore for the F1, go away for a few days and the South China Sea gets some action. Didn't see its early forecast track nearer to Hong Kong, certainly looks to be going well south of us now. Looks like the phillipines will take the brunt of this one though and weaken the storm thouroghly. HKO have it hitting thursday this week, and the forecast for frequent squally showers certainly suggest it will have some interaction with here. They usually are the ones to usually underestimate everything. Definately keeping an eye ob it though, and hoping for a bit of a northern recurve to put it nearer us, could do with a day off work!

Sorry, i meant diameter or radius from eye. Should have been clearer than that. Maybe its diameter of destructive winds...something to gauge how small this is in comparison to say an average size typhoon?

what is the size estimate on Sonca? certainly a very small but very nice looking storm!

Hey me again! What are the chances of this one heading towards Hong Kong? Maybe too early to say, but a favourable curve to the southwest is being predicted by both JTWC and HKO. Obviously only 5 days are up at the moment with a large cone of uncertainty, but after the quiet year this year im willing to hedge my bets on any chances!!