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cornishbrooksy

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  1. Following this one closely..James Reynolds a.k.a. Typhoon Hunter has travelled with a couple of other Mets to the expected eye location. A note on the intensities given by the USA...they are 1-min sustained, JMA uses 10-min sustained, which is where the disparity comes from. JMA is the official agency of this basin so there figures should be used (however I, and a lot of other people prefer the JTWC). This is an incredible storm, and how they cannot justify Recon in this basin is beyond me. This is much likely stronger than the analysis techniques, and wouldnt be completely unreasonable i
  2. Landfall was around 180km east of here, but according to HKO it still maintains Severe Typhoon intensity. Im going out for a scout around as its nearing its close approach to HK around 110km to the NE. Pressures been dropping nicely through the day and seeing current pressures around 985mPa.
  3. Taken from the first HKO bulletin....note "severe threat to HK" and mentioning its a "mature typhoon, still at Super Typhoon strength" (actually JTWC downgraded it in the last bulletin to Typhoon. Usagi is a mature typhoon, and has been moving steadilywest-northwest this morning at the intensity of a SuperTyphoon. It will come rather close to the vicinity of thePearl River Estuary on Sunday and Monday and pose severethreat to Hong Kong. According to the present forecasttrack, local winds are expected to strengthen tonight andtomorrow morning, and the Observatory will issue the StrongWind Sign
  4. And I'm back! So this is an interesting one....JTWC consistently (for 3 days now) put this on direct collision with HK. People starting to take a bit of notice now, but unfortunately a series of wear T8's and a T10 with not much impact last year have meant a lot of people not really concerned for this. From what i can gather it will landfall close or on top of HK...the crucial thing is if it passes to north or south. If north then we will escape a lot of the damage and it will help. A pass to the south would mean the right front quadrant bringing a strong risk of storm surge (see Typhoon
  5. Back to where I start getting excited again. unfortunately I have decided to be on holiday this week, so will not be in Hong Kong. Earlier when the models were sending it straight for HK I was wishing it away, and it should stay south but still bring gale force winds to hong kong next week. I hope the Phillipines are prepared for this one...it has just been upgraded to super Typhoon by JTWC and will make landfall in the next few hours. My thoughts are with everybody there right now.
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