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About syed2878

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  1. Just wached The ecmwf seasonal update on gavs weathervids and that isn’t too encouraging for something cold ither it’s not really showing the blocking signals it was showing in the last 2 updates.
  2. where were you in 2012 Apple UK when ECM had led us up thethe garden path and brought us back down with a bang the next day? now that was a model upset if ever there was one
  3. syed2878

    Winter 2018/19

    Ok Mods this maybe a bit of an off topic post and I know we have a met extended outlook thread but as this is the hunt for cold thread I just want to post this here to put some folks minds at rest. excellent set of outputs again today and ecmf looking better than the 00h output I for 1 not expecting deep cold yet and we are still in November. Saying that this encouraging from met extended outlook. Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Nov 2018 to Thursday 29 Nov 2018: For much of next week it looks mostly cloudy with the best of the brighter spells in the west. Showers are possible, mainly in the east, and these could turn wintry over hills. It will be cold, especially in the south, with this accentuated by the brisk wind. Night frosts are likely and could become widespread at times. Towards the end of the week there is a chance of outbreaks of rain and hill snow affecting many areas at times, particularly in the south. Similar conditions will probably continue into the following weekend and the last week of November. There is also an increasing chance of snow falling to lower levels towards the end of November, mainly in the north and east. UK Outlook for Friday 30 Nov 2018 to Friday 14 Dec 2018: This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions. The best of any sunshine is likely in the west with generally cloudier skies in the east. There is a continued chance of showers for all areas with snow over the hills, mainly in the east and north. More organised areas of rain and hill snow could affect many areas at times, and there is a low risk of snow to low levels. Confidence is currently low towards the middle of December. However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. Updated: 15:02 on Thu 15 Nov 2018 GMT.
  4. Ok guys lets keep our feet on the ground yes models are putting out excellent charts and it's fantastic to see such outputs this time of the year with the atlantic held back. in sted of watching every run of every out put why don't we all compare like for like as JH would say. 00z from the previous days to todays and same with 6z, 12z and 18z from gfs 00z and 12z from ukmo and ecmf. also guys lets us not forget the 96-72hrs ecmf run from dec 2012 and how it all went tits up so lets keep it all friendly guys and good hunting. excellent gfs run this afternoon and not a bad ecmf ither.
  5. changing my prediction to 8.2c and 120 mm rain thank you
  6. syed2878

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    nothing but rain here. stil raining.
  7. for November my guess is 9.5c and rain 120mm. thanks.
  8. Let us not get too disappointed with the current output folks because there is a hurricane according to the Met Office live stream on Tuesday gone that in it self could throw a spanner into the works let us see next week what model shows next week and then discuss the bonfire weekend it is after all the 25th of October
  9. Hello folks. Excelent NWP outputs regarding cold even the met have it on their 6-15 15-30day forecast first I hope these charts comes off as for snow I don't think any low level snow from midlands south is going to happen yet. Intresting met outlook from UK met today for the first half of November now I know there is a met thread but if I can put today's forecast in. UK Outlook for Saturday 3 Nov 2018 to Saturday 17 Nov 2018: A north to northwesterly scenario is looking likely during this period, with changeable conditions dominating across northern parts at first. However, conditions may turn more widely unsettled at times, with heaviest rain and stronger winds more likely to be across the north. By mid-November there are signals for high pressure to develop to the north of the UK, with 'blocked' conditions becoming established. This may result in fog and frost becoming more likely, especially in the north. Meanwhile, more changeable conditions may become established across the south and west, with some rain at times. Temperatures are likely to be mostly below normal, with a greater likelihood of frost as well as some snow for higher ground in the north. Any milder spells are likely to be short-lived. Updated: 15:15 on Fri 19 Oct 2018 BST. So Met are going for part of Nov to be blocked possibly wich is what the ECMWF 30day is also showing.
  10. syed2878

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    A very well thought out forecast let’s hope it very five looking forward to it all ready excellent read thank you roger.s
  11. syed2878

    Winter 2018/19

    not necessarily mild easterly December because it doesn’t take long for the continent to cool down in winter month Europe can call down rather quickly given the right conditions
  12. Hi Folks Lets Start This Roller Coaster Ride For Winter 2018 2019. Take A Look At Gavs Weather Vids For Some Of The Excelent Winter 18-19 Updates His been doing From September. Here's To A Snowy winter18-19 To All. https://www.gavsweathervids.com/
  13. Ok I'm going with 12.5c. Rain 85mm. Thanks.
  14. for September my guess is 16.5 C and 40 mm thank you
  15. syed2878

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    thundery showers here about half an hour ago during the shower it went quite chilly according to BBC weather app more heavy showers to come