Styx

November - Hobart, Tasmania A little bit warm and dry. A mean temperature anomaly of +0.4c above 1981-2010 or +0.7c above 1961-1990. Mean maximum: 20.2 ( +1.3 ) Mean minimum: 9.4 ( -0.5 ) Rainfall: 41mm ( average 53mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ) : 11/from 14 Hot and partly cloudy at first in a fresh northerly breeze. A trough crossed on the morning of the 2nd followed by a cold front and the day was overcast with rain increasing. The first half of the month was then dominated by active Southern Ocean fronts with rain at times and mountain snowfalls - but more moderate conditions around Hobart and the sheltered south-east. The 7th-8th brought a few showers between sunshine with snow settling at 700m asl. A few further showers between the 12th-14th with a dusting of snow to 1000m asl ( mostly at night ). In complete contrast serious heat was developing in Australia's west and moving east, the heat intensified by drought. This heat was dragged south-east ahead of an approaching front giving Hobart it's equal hottest November day. The maximum of 36.8c at midday was followed by a cool, dry wind change. Winds then turned dry westerly in the days ahead, then a few showers from the 26th with cold fronts in a west to south-westerly flow. A thunderstorm with hail on the 29th on an active cold front, and a cold night with a dusting of snow to 900m asl by the morning of the 30th. Extremes in daily temperature for November ( records since 1882 ) High max: 36.8.....21st ( equal record with 1937 ) Low max: 12.7.....7th and 8th ( record 8.4 in 1885 ) High min: 15.0.....1st ( record 19.9 in 1937 ) Low min: 4.1.....5th ( record 1.7 in 1941 ) Equal record

The Perth record for December is 44.2c in 2007 ( it doesn't mention that in the news video you put up ) Meantime in Tasmania it is icy. The mountain summit was -4.0c last night ( 1260m asl ) and the city minimum was 5.8c ( 6 below average ). The pinnacle road to the summit is closed due to ice and snow. The road is narrow and they don't want cars jackknifing or falling down ravines. The Tasmania record low for December ( and summer ) is -5.0c in 1969.

It's a pretty cold start to summer! The mountain is snowcapped this morning ( to about 800m asl ) but it won't be around for long. The minimum was -3.2c on the summit and 7.7c in the city. Tonight, the snowline could go lower and more mountain snow is forecast on Thursday if there's enough precipitation around with the next pulse of cold air. December snow on the city mountain happens once every second December on average ( but usually just a single day ). In 2006 the mountain was snowcapped on Christmas morning. In 1972, the snowline was half way down the mountain. Both those events were colder.

Australia crushed its spring rainfall record for dryness. Consequently the January-November period is likely to be a record too - but that's yet to be confirmed. 1902 is the only other year that was as dry as this from beginning to end across the continent. 1902 was the final stage of a multi-year drought across Australia known as the Federation Drought, the most severe the country has seen ( those summers produced some extreme heat events ). It was the fifth warmest spring on record. The mean maximum was the second warmest ( fractionally below the 2014 record ) and the mean minimum came in 20th. There are many other maps and graphs on the BoM website but I think these ones sum things up nicely.

Sydney to face its toughest water restrictions in 10 years WWW.ABC.NET.AU Sydneysiders will be able to water their gardens and wash their cars using only a bucket from next month, after the NSW Government announced tough new restrictions.

I forgot to talk about Melbourne. It was also the equal-hottest November day for that state capital on Thursday. Melbourne has records since 1855 and for over a century the station was at the same inner city site. In recent times too much UHI warming was causing problems. In 2014 a new station began operating at Olympic Park near the Melbourne Cricket Ground. When the two sites were operating in tandem during the 18 month switch over period it showed the inner city site was +0.8c warmer for maxima and +0.4c warmer for minima. It was never used for state or national averages. The other sites listed in the record table are all in Victoria's south. Wilson's Promontory Lighthouse ( records since 1910 ), Laverton and East Sale ( records since the early 1940s ) and Mangalore ( records since 1959 ). The Victoria state maximum was 44c in the north-west ( about 2c below the state record ).

What would be useful is an areal average temperature for Tasmania for today. BoM rarely releases those details and we don't have anything like a daily CET measurement that is publicly available. Campania is 20km to the north of Hobart and while it almost broke the state record, it only has 20 years worth of temperature records. There are no closed weather stations in that geographical area either that may offer an insight of previous weather. Hobart has by far the longest dataset on the list ( 138 years ), followed by Bushy Park and Flinders Island ( 58 years ) and Fingal ( 34 years ). The rest on the list: Tunnack, Ouse, Devonport have 22-28 years of data. It took about 5 hours for the cool wind change to clear the island from south to north ( a slow mover ) and right now it's a pleasant 16c at 11pm. Hobart highest November temperatures ( records since 1882 ) 36.8.....2019 21st 36.8.....1937 36.7.....1888 36.1.....1966 35.8.....1982

MIDDAY THURSDAY - An absolute scorcher in Tasmania. Hot, breezy, low humidity and diluted sunshine through cirrus. Hobart right now 36.8c ( 18 above average ) and tie with November record. The state maximum so far 37.7c - 0.8c below the state record for November. Not smelling any smoke out there so that's good. More later...

'Catastrophic' fire alert in two Australian states WWW.BBC.COM The warnings for South Australia and Victoria come as massive fires ravage other parts of the nation. South Australia was very hot today but there were no serious bushfires and a cool change has now gone through. There were ten November heat records in South Australia but Adelaide's 41.6 wasn't one of them ( it was 1.4c short of the November record but 16c above average) and the state maximum was 46.6c at Nullarbor ( 20 above average ) near the coast, in the western part of South Australia. This was just 1.5c short of the state record for November. Thursday will be hot and windy in Victoria and Tasmania. Temperature records far less likely. The catastrophic alert for Victoria is just for northern districts. Nullarbor's readings were pretty impressive today. I have never seen a 1% relative humidity reading before. Nullarbor also started the day at 13c minimum - a massive 33c diurnal temperature range.

This is a cool month in Tasmania and snow is still falling regularly in the mountains. The cool month in Tasmania and the southern fringe of south-east Australia ( from about Adelaide to Melbourne ) is linked to the rare stratospheric warming event and persistent Southern Ocean fronts. The current snowline ( made up of large patches of snow and drifts in shady areas that have been around for weeks ) is about 1200-1300m asl. Dove Lake ( in the picture ) is 940m asl and the mountain top is 1545m. The latest webcam image shows snow near the lake has gone, but the upper mountain sides has been snow covered for weeks - likewise Tasmania's southern ski-field of Mount Mawson ( 1250m ) in the picture below.

A November temperature record of 40.4c in Perth today ( 13 above average ). It spiked at 41-43c at other stations in the Perth metropolitan area just before the trough line came through, so the official maximum for the city could have certainly been higher, given a little more time. The Western Australian maximum was 45.8c in the north-west. The heat reaches the east Wednesday-Friday. BoM has a lot of New South Wales under a severe heatwave but the coastal strip ( where many of the fires are ) will be cooler. Perth highest November temperatures ( records since 1897 ) 40.4.....2019 16th 40.3.....2003 11th 40.3.....1913 24th 40.1.....1978 22nd 39.9.....1962 24th

A lot of lifestyle advantages of living in Australia but that photo is a sore reminder of what we miss out on at this time of year!

There's concern about hot weather at the end of next week extending across the country. Potentially much hotter in NSW than it was yesterday but it's not certain yet the intense heat will make it to the east. Whether the heat comes with strong wind is going to depend on the timing and intensity of fronts moving up from the south-east. GFS 850 futures looks potent and very summery. Many people are not happy with the word 'unprecedented' being tagged to describe these fires ( word had been taken out of context ) but unless rain comes soon its possible with a level-head to see an outcome heading toward that.

The introductory comment from the twitter user has no truth to it. It's an interesting story from the journalist but he has used exactly the same storyline a couple of times in the last few years. The quote from the BoM says it all really " Andrew Watkins from the bureau said a lack of rain across almost the entire country was "fairly unusual," but there have occasionally been days with virtually no rainfall". I feel sorry for journalists nowadays because a) they are forced to write more content than they used to without the time to properly investigate the facts and b) they need to dramatise the content for an audience that is disengaging from mainstream media. BoM's excellent online climate database shows no notable dry rainfall records recently but it is exceptionally dry in northern NSW especially on longer time scales and its very dry everywhere else. The January-October rainfall total for the continent is the second loweston record ( which granted - is a big deal ).

4pm - No bushfires causing any concern anywhere near Sydney. There are 10 emergency fires in northern New South Wales posing direct threat to towns and communities. The NSW Fire Service web site is frequently updating with new information and the changing status of all the fires. NSW RFS - NSW Rural Fire Service WWW.RFS.NSW.GOV.AU

BoM has released a short video on the "evolving and dangerous" weather situation for New South Wales and Sydney tomorrow which may be of interest. I should also add humidity levels will be exceptionally low due to the widespread drought. The cold front moving up from the south is intense again explaining the strength of the winds forecast for NSW. There is a very large temperature divergence between the two air masses - snowfall is forecast to 600m asl in Tasmania and 900m asl in Victoria, for example. Judging by media coverage this evening this upcoming weather event is getting the most amount of attention and tone of foreboding since coverage of Cyclone Yasi in Queensland, in 2011.

Hot and windy across the entire state of New South Wales this Tuesday. The NSW Fire Service has just issued a Catastrophic Fire Danger rating for Greater Sydney this Tuesday. This is the first time any major city in Australia has been issued the highest fire danger rating since the new rating system came into place in 2009. It is a threat based warning system based on a formula of weather conditions on the day, and soil moisture levels. Prior to 2009 the highest rating was Extreme - that was an occasional declaration. Catastrophic also means school closures and mass preventative actions including strong advice to leave, prior to any fire activity. How this plays out in Australia's largest city on Tuesday will be interesting. Sydney has a forecast maximum of 37c on Tuesday with winds of 50-75km/hr. Fire Danger Ratings - NSW Rural Fire Service WWW.RFS.NSW.GOV.AU Dangerous fire conditions forecast for Tuesday 12 November - NSW Rural Fire Service WWW.RFS.NSW.GOV.AU

The potential November heat record of 40c in Perth on Saturday ( 13 above average ) is being driven by a west coast trough dragging intense heat from the north-west all the way south. The north-west region has seen elevating heat for a number of days and it is about to enter an official extreme heatwave, as defined by the BoM. At 11am it is 34.8c in Perth. There doesn't appear to be any connection between the heat in the west and the hot and windy day yesterday which resulted in severe bushfires in the east. Many of these fires are flare-ups from existing hot spots which have been burning for several weeks in unprecedented drought conditions. There were no temperature records yesterday but it was windy and the humidity was very low. A few minutes ago the NSW Fire Service reported 150 homes destroyed, 2 deaths, 7 people missing. This appears to be the worst bushfire incident in terms of property destruction in Australia since the Blue Mountains bushfires in New South Wales in October 2013 ( which destroyed 250 homes ). The NSW Fire Commissioner said yesterday: "We are in uncharted territory. We've never seen this many fires concurrently at emergency level". This statement appears in all the media without explanation. It is based on the new bushfire alert system for communities enacted around 2011, following a review of the messaging system after the Black Saturday fires in Victoria in 2009. So a bad situation and outcome with resources stretched, but no where near unprecedented in the history of bushfires in that state.

I should mention how cold it is in south-east Australia behind the front that is now moving up the east coast bringing a ( dry ) southerly change to the fire ground. At 10:30pm it is -4.5c in Victoria ( at Mount Hotham 1800m asl ) and -3.7c in Tasmania ( at Mt.Wellington summit above Hobart, 1200m asl ). The November record for Tasmania and Victoria is -6.8c. Unlikely the Tasmania record will fall but Victoria looks good right now...

Very serious bushfires in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland this afternoon. Situation looks grim - NSW Fire Service has received 'multiple' reports of people trapped in their homes. ABC News is live blogging

October - Hobart, Tasmania This was the fourth driest October in 138 years of records. I have a graph for that. This year has been very dry in eastern Tasmania and for Australia overall. The mean temperature anomaly was +0.5c above 1981-2010 or +0.6c above 1961-1990. Mean maximum: 18.8 ( +1.5 ) Mean minimum: 7.7 ( -0.6 ) Rainfall: 18mm ( average 61mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ) : 5/from 9 A slow moving high pressure system over the Southern Ocean directed cool southerly winds between the 4th-11th. It is unusual to have a slow moving high so far south, especially in spring. The weather was very cloudy with light showers at times mainly over the hills. Showers increased on the 11th as a cold front moved up from the south and the snowline dropped to 1000m. The high moved to the south on the 12th bringing a cold easterly wind off the sea then a temporary warm up as the high to the east directed a northerly airflow. A cold front on the 15th brought rain ( 7mm ) making it the wettest and coldest day of the month and this was followed by settled weather with morning fog - ahead of a cold front on the 19th bringing a few showers and a dusting of snow to 800m. Progressively warmer between the 20th-25th then weak fronts bringing cooler weather on the 26th-27th with just a brief shower. Heating up impressively at the end of the month across southern Australia with high pressure consolidating to the east of the continent with north to north-west winds. A front on the 30th turned winds from the south with no rain, then it was back to warm northerlies as the high reasserted influence. Extremes in daily temperature for October ( records since 1882 ) : High max: 28.2.....3rd ( record 34.6 in 1987 ) Low max: 12.4.....15th ( record 6.0 in 1958 ) High min: 15.9.....25th ( record 20.2 in 1933 ) Low min: 2.9.....5th ( record 0.0 in 1889 ) Historically dry October

The Australia drought escalates. It is the driest Jan-Oct since 1902 ( which was the driest ). With the Indian Ocean Dipole at historical high values the lack of moisture moving inland from the west is forecast to persist for some time ( together with a delayed northern monsoon ). The eastern side has been unfortunate in recent years by failing to draw in systems from the Pacific. Neutral ENSO conditions in recent years haven't been kind. Climaxing multi-day heatwaves this summer have the potential to be incredibly hot with so much land area drought afflicted. The end of October drew in central heat to the south for a single day but even that was enough for daily maximums to reach top 99th percentile for that date across a very large area. Overall it was the second warmest October on record in Australia for mean maximum temperature.

October finishes with summer-like weather. I noticed a huge 29.4c dirunial temperature range today at Ouse, a small town in Tasmania's inland south. I don't know what the Tasmania record is but today was probably close. Hobart on the south-east coast had a temperature range of 8.7-26.9c ( 10 above average ) with a seabreeze.