Styx

The warm October in Britain has even been mentioned on Australian ABC TV news bulletins. A brief reference to the high anomolies superimposed on a map, straight after the NE USA snow story.

Whatever it is it is a disappointment, making the previous couple of years look like rouge years, fooling everyone from the real suckers like Madden and just ordinary people thinking that a cool down process could be a permanent fixture. The CET is obviously a globally significant data set. Alas, no. Probably not.

Slightly off topic, but I like waking up on a Monday morning to murk and drizzle or rain, knowing you'll be at work and it's worse outside than in, the wish to be outside isn't there so the mind isn't wandering away beyond the glass window.. rather than going to work on a lovely Monday, after a wet weekend. Or maybe I just need a new job, but just a random thought nevertheless

Got to agree with Aaron about windless days and heat. In fact i don't like windless days at all, there's something too still about the world, nothing rustling or moving, nothing felt on the skin apart from your film of building sweat , a mild form of sensory deprivation. Warm nights, anything over 18C - especially after a hot sunny day and having forgotten to close the curtains during the day to keep out the heat. These extreme warm nights are becoming more frequent here and it was only last year that I thought it would be a good idea to buy a fan! And endless days of sameness...partly cloudy and mild. Kinda boring.

Ha - You are kidding right? Who is suggesting such a thing! Similar confusing responses can be heard in Queensland, which doesn't have daylight saving. It's a movement principally coming from folk in Brisbane. The last referendum on the issue was narrowly defeated. Best (or worst excuse) by those against that I have heard was that an extra hour of sunlight would fade the curtains. I think a politician who represented an outback electorate said that, and said it quite seriously

Learnt a lot in the last month or two about British weather, weather systems and influences on the climate from this site. The CET certainly does bounce around a lot, the extremes are quite surprising. My estimate for Nov ( from a real novice ) is 7.7. Then very cold and snowy afterwards !

Cold weather option for me aswell. Continuous heat is often hard to avoid even in air conditioned homes. And down here it comes with flies, mozzies, usually bushfire smoke in the air, and sunburn in under 10 minutes. Cold all the way.

That is very dry indeed ! That rainfall statistic is actually comparable to the most arid parts of Australia. The 50 largest urban places in Australia ranks from Sydney at number 1, to the mining town of Kalgoorlie at 50 ( population 23,000, 700 miles east of Perth ). Every one of those 50 places has a 2011 rainfall figure in excess of 300mm. The bottom two are: Kalgoorlie with 308mm so far for the year, and Alice Springs with 321mm. So 270mm is very dramatic ! No doubt a big flood is around the corner, usually seems to tend from one extreme to the next

Lowest cumulative rainfall totals so far for the year?

Please explain.

I have the power to smell snow in the air before it actually begins to fall. It has obviously got to be cold to begin with with moisture in the air. But there is a discernable snow smell. I often also think about what the temperature might be when I am outside, and when I check it out by looking at the official temperature, I find in most instances I am within 1.5C of accuracy !

I didn't fill out the poll because I am not ( yet ) a UK resident. But I am happy to answer some of the points based on a local perspective. Firstly, I am astounded that these sorts of stories are making front page news in your press. I cannot see that happening here, especially based on possible future events which would actually be improbable, with little factual evidence to back up the dramatic headlines. Interesting to observe so many cowboy weather organisations getting a foothold in regards to public attention via media outlets: Exacta weather, Positive Solutions and possibly others. It is disappointing that the Met Service has not become the fallback authority figure to respond to some of these outlandish claims in those same articles. They appear to have been subjecated by private companies whose mode operandi is to speculate the loudest in order to get attention. Perhaps the Met Service created the problem in the first place with their confident seasonal forecast projections, many of which were fails. I think they have now been abandoned ( ? ). Personally, I don't buy newspapers but on the rare incidences I do, I would probably be more inclined to buy a copy with a sensational weather headline ( purely for entertainment value ). But it is difficult to compare here and there as I've never seen anything quite like it. I think its important to remember though that most people are weather illiterate in a technical sense. They don't need guts or complete accuracy in a story to take on board what is said. The same goes for the average tabloid journalist, inaccuracies are not even recognised, because they are starting from a base with no real knowledge.

You know what, I think most people would be so freeked out with what was going on to enjoy that !

Best thing about living in a temperate climate is defiently its unpredictability within a season, more so than between them. These are the long term averages for my home town, and a few minor changes to make things more interesting: Summer Dec 11/20 Jan 12/22 Feb 12/22 The temperature average is good, but I'd add no more than 2 degrees to them. By weakening the afternoon seabreeze which is sometimes quite cold, that would do the trick. I would also like to see more regular thunderstorms, which averages about 5 for the entire year here. I would also have snow at Christmas, because nothing compares to the festive feel of snow and cold. A BBQ at the beach is not the same thing. Autumn Mar 11/20 April 9/17 May 7/15 A nice time of the year with long spells of settled blue sky days. Sometimes a bit monotonous, so I'd make May colder with the arrival of snow in the mountains. It would also be nice if most trees were decidious, so leaf fall like the northern hemisphere. Winter June 5/12 July 5/12 Aug 5/13 Big changes required! Reduce the average temperature by 5 degrees (more in line with CET values ). Snow events frequent, permanent snow cover on the ranges behind Hobart. Frosts to be common. Also those still, low-cloud overcast freezing days...I love those. Spring Sep 7/15 Oct 8/17 Nov 10/19 The temperatures are fine, it is also a usually variable month with big temperature swings. But more gale or storm force wind events, like there used to be down here. Bigger rain events, with days with non stop rain and flooded streets. I'd also add: the occasional waterspout The possibility of a tornado ( no injuries )

Having a look at the pictures again I just have a random question ( 2am local time here..random hour ) What do these snow remnants feel like by the touch? The Coasters Cave relic actually looks glassy and as hard as nails, are the others quite loose to the touch and fragile ( like the ice you find on the roof of your fridge ? ). Having not come across several month old snow before, I can only guess..

Oh to witness something like that ! That woman didn't hold back did she ! I walked the Lands End to St Ives walking trail several years ago. It is such a spectacular, beautiful area. A bit surprised how rugged it got, some of those trails were a bit dicey ( steep narrow sections on very narrow track ). Anyone in the know whether this cliff collapse was on this route?

The above post just beat me to what I was about to say re truly unusual behaivour and odd migration patterns which could be precursors to severe weather events. On a completley different subject, it is interesting that animals have been known to agitate and flee prior to earthquakes, and there was an article I read sometime ago about wildlife fleeing coastal areas well prior to the tsunami arriving on shore in parts of Indonesia in 2004.

I have to admit, that is clever ! I notice that his obsession about the gulf stream has subsided. That is one good thing, because based on what I read from other sources he was getting close to telling porkies. I just hope he doesn't run away from his blog like he did at the start of the year, when the warm spring weather took him by surprise. I wish him well, but now that he has become, dare I say 'notorious', he owes the public a proper explanation if his winter forecast goes pear shaped. People are actually spending a bit of money preparing for the worst, individuals, councils and businesses.

I like the idea that unexplainable sightings of alien craft and beings are human visitors from our distant future, perhaps millions of years ahead of present time, visiting us in time machines for observation, or the collection of genetic material. There are too many recorded sightings and encounters going back hundreds of years, from so many people, especially those in official positions of authority ( police, military, politicians ) and children too, for doubt about the authenticity of something unwordly to be discounted. I am intrigued by the Ariel accounter in Zimbabwe, in 1994 for example

Ha, never mind, it was obviously a memorable event, but probably quite localised. It is interesting to see such wide variations in measured wind speeds sometimes at different locations at any one point in time. I was living at Littlehampton in the autumn of 1998 and witnessed an unforgettable evening of a ferocious gale, the like i have never seen before. Walking to work literally scared me - the sound of the whistling power lines and loose objects and branches flying thru the air. I barely could stand upright let alone walk. Amazingly, absolutley amazingly, I cant find any record of it being a newsworthy event. Wanted to see what kind of windspeed I may have encountered, it would have had to have been 80mph+.. I am guessing it was probably something incredibly localised, or maybe I imagined the whole event.. .

I am really fascinated by this ice age obsession, based on assumptions that what happened over 2 consecutive winters is somehow indicative of set long term trend. The media will beat up these stories for all they are worth. They get people talking and they boost circulation figures. It is also good publicity for the likes of Exacta weather and James Madden. If it does'nt come true, there is no follow up explanation, the story fades away, such is the populations short attention span and fix for sensationalism. And front page too...cor blimey! That is weird. We get the same BS in our media too, usually sourced from dodgy private sector organisations looking to plug their services.

Based purely on the inexactt science of the law of averages, if October is a record breaker, then months that follow will be unusually cool. ( April record CET, May mild but not as extreme, then summer months below average ) ( October record CET?, November slightly mild but not as extreme, then winter months below average ?)

The most interesting part of that news story for me was a comment from one of the readers, advising that Bristol city council is offering free home insulation for for its residents who are over 60. Not bad! I am also having a punt that Bristol City Councils stockpiling of grit has got nothing to do with James Madden's predictions ( although it did tie in cleverly with the report ). It may just be for political reasons, they do not want to get caught out unawares and have the ratepayers annoyed, as what happened last winter. And as far as James Madden is concerned: He has gone out on such a limb this time around with a prediction of such extreme severity this winter, that if in any way he is proved to be wrong, then his days as a weather forecaster would appear to be over. His blog is extraordinary for its dramatic self assuredness http://globalcooling...k.blogspot.com/ If anyone has the time, reread all the entries since the start of the year, including a fairly recent one forecasting snow in October. He has a tendency to focus on what he got right, without any follow up posts on predictions that didn't quite eventuate as planned. He has also manipulated the science IMO when it comes to gulf stream analysis and its changing behaivour, and solar activity. Also, don't bother to post anything on his blog which runs contrary to his opinions, or to challenge him on his methodology, for it wont be published or responded to ( fair enough, it is his blog, but still, that is just a heads up....)

Snow is not uncommon here right thru the year, even during the summer months, where snow on occasion has settled to as low as the 6 or 700 metre mark. It usually melts away within a day or two, and it is usually followed by quite a warm long, settled period. Hobart ( sealevel ) lies on the edge of Mount Wellington ( see webcam link )..and we have had Christmases in the past where the mountain has been snowcapped. Over the last 10 years, that has probably happened 3 times. Latest in the season I have seen snow falling where I live, but not settling ( sealevel ) was October 28 2006 ( one month out from the unofficial start of summer ). It was described as the most severe weather event ever recorded so late in the year. On parts of Tasmania's east coast, snow settled on the beaches - some places had their first settled snow since the early 1970s ( for any time of the year ). Earliest I have seen it snow in Hobart was last week of May 1989. Again, it didn't settle. So spring to summer snow events appear to happen more frequently than summer thru to autumn at this latitude, as far as the last 2 or 3 decades are concerned.

I'm very impressed you have access to your local synoptic charts from over 100 years ago. I am quite jealous, what a blast! I sometimes head down to the city library and go thru the local newspaper archives, and check out the old Australian weather charts from way back if theres a date Im curious about, or just to kill some time. This is the only method availble in which to do it. I'm often amazed, as I'm sure you guys are, at the regularity of perfect system allignments that have produced significant weather in the past. For example, the southern Australian winter in modern times has been characterised by more dominant high pressure ridging, with lows no longer trajecting as far north from Antarctic waters. It wasn't uncommon to see cold fronts punching up as far north as Queensland. This has prevented in most cases, very cold snowy air, or wintry storms, pushing up over the continent. The winter patterns look as if they have changed the most. Spring has also lost the traditional windy westerly flow ( the "Roaring 40's" as they are known, the usual westerly belt of wind between intense lows just to the south and intense highs to the north.