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Everything posted by Styx

  1. A November temperature record of 40.4c in Perth today ( 13 above average ). It spiked at 41-43c at other stations in the Perth metropolitan area just before the trough line came through, so the official maximum for the city could have certainly been higher, given a little more time. The Western Australian maximum was 45.8c in the north-west. The heat reaches the east Wednesday-Friday. BoM has a lot of New South Wales under a severe heatwave but the coastal strip ( where many of the fires are ) will be cooler. Perth highest November temperatures ( records since 1897 ) 40.4.....2019 16th 40.3.....2003 11th 40.3.....1913 24th 40.1.....1978 22nd 39.9.....1962 24th
  2. A lot of lifestyle advantages of living in Australia but that photo is a sore reminder of what we miss out on at this time of year!
  3. Styx


    I lived in Swansea 15 years ago. By the looks of things, a lot of changes!
  4. Styx


    Awesome photo! Where is this?
  5. There's concern about hot weather at the end of next week extending across the country. Potentially much hotter in NSW than it was yesterday but it's not certain yet the intense heat will make it to the east. Whether the heat comes with strong wind is going to depend on the timing and intensity of fronts moving up from the south-east. GFS 850 futures looks potent and very summery. Many people are not happy with the word 'unprecedented' being tagged to describe these fires ( word had been taken out of context ) but unless rain comes soon its possible with a level-head to see an outcome heading toward that.
  6. The introductory comment from the twitter user has no truth to it. It's an interesting story from the journalist but he has used exactly the same storyline a couple of times in the last few years. The quote from the BoM says it all really " Andrew Watkins from the bureau said a lack of rain across almost the entire country was "fairly unusual," but there have occasionally been days with virtually no rainfall". I feel sorry for journalists nowadays because a) they are forced to write more content than they used to without the time to properly investigate the facts and b) they need to dramatise the content for an audience that is disengaging from mainstream media. BoM's excellent online climate database shows no notable dry rainfall records recently but it is exceptionally dry in northern NSW especially on longer time scales and its very dry everywhere else. The January-October rainfall total for the continent is the second loweston record ( which granted - is a big deal ).
  7. 4pm - No bushfires causing any concern anywhere near Sydney. There are 10 emergency fires in northern New South Wales posing direct threat to towns and communities. The NSW Fire Service web site is frequently updating with new information and the changing status of all the fires. NSW RFS - NSW Rural Fire Service WWW.RFS.NSW.GOV.AU
  8. BoM has released a short video on the "evolving and dangerous" weather situation for New South Wales and Sydney tomorrow which may be of interest. I should also add humidity levels will be exceptionally low due to the widespread drought. The cold front moving up from the south is intense again explaining the strength of the winds forecast for NSW. There is a very large temperature divergence between the two air masses - snowfall is forecast to 600m asl in Tasmania and 900m asl in Victoria, for example. Judging by media coverage this evening this upcoming weather event is getting the most amount of attention and tone of foreboding since coverage of Cyclone Yasi in Queensland, in 2011.
  9. Hot and windy across the entire state of New South Wales this Tuesday. The NSW Fire Service has just issued a Catastrophic Fire Danger rating for Greater Sydney this Tuesday. This is the first time any major city in Australia has been issued the highest fire danger rating since the new rating system came into place in 2009. It is a threat based warning system based on a formula of weather conditions on the day, and soil moisture levels. Prior to 2009 the highest rating was Extreme - that was an occasional declaration. Catastrophic also means school closures and mass preventative actions including strong advice to leave, prior to any fire activity. How this plays out in Australia's largest city on Tuesday will be interesting. Sydney has a forecast maximum of 37c on Tuesday with winds of 50-75km/hr. Fire Danger Ratings - NSW Rural Fire Service WWW.RFS.NSW.GOV.AU Dangerous fire conditions forecast for Tuesday 12 November - NSW Rural Fire Service WWW.RFS.NSW.GOV.AU
  10. The potential November heat record of 40c in Perth on Saturday ( 13 above average ) is being driven by a west coast trough dragging intense heat from the north-west all the way south. The north-west region has seen elevating heat for a number of days and it is about to enter an official extreme heatwave, as defined by the BoM. At 11am it is 34.8c in Perth. There doesn't appear to be any connection between the heat in the west and the hot and windy day yesterday which resulted in severe bushfires in the east. Many of these fires are flare-ups from existing hot spots which have been burning for several weeks in unprecedented drought conditions. There were no temperature records yesterday but it was windy and the humidity was very low. A few minutes ago the NSW Fire Service reported 150 homes destroyed, 2 deaths, 7 people missing. This appears to be the worst bushfire incident in terms of property destruction in Australia since the Blue Mountains bushfires in New South Wales in October 2013 ( which destroyed 250 homes ). The NSW Fire Commissioner said yesterday: "We are in uncharted territory. We've never seen this many fires concurrently at emergency level". This statement appears in all the media without explanation. It is based on the new bushfire alert system for communities enacted around 2011, following a review of the messaging system after the Black Saturday fires in Victoria in 2009. So a bad situation and outcome with resources stretched, but no where near unprecedented in the history of bushfires in that state.
  11. I should mention how cold it is in south-east Australia behind the front that is now moving up the east coast bringing a ( dry ) southerly change to the fire ground. At 10:30pm it is -4.5c in Victoria ( at Mount Hotham 1800m asl ) and -3.7c in Tasmania ( at Mt.Wellington summit above Hobart, 1200m asl ). The November record for Tasmania and Victoria is -6.8c. Unlikely the Tasmania record will fall but Victoria looks good right now...
  12. Very serious bushfires in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland this afternoon. Situation looks grim - NSW Fire Service has received 'multiple' reports of people trapped in their homes. ABC News is live blogging
  13. October - Hobart, Tasmania This was the fourth driest October in 138 years of records. I have a graph for that. This year has been very dry in eastern Tasmania and for Australia overall. The mean temperature anomaly was +0.5c above 1981-2010 or +0.6c above 1961-1990. Mean maximum: 18.8 ( +1.5 ) Mean minimum: 7.7 ( -0.6 ) Rainfall: 18mm ( average 61mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ) : 5/from 9 A slow moving high pressure system over the Southern Ocean directed cool southerly winds between the 4th-11th. It is unusual to have a slow moving high so far south, especially in spring. The weather was very cloudy with light showers at times mainly over the hills. Showers increased on the 11th as a cold front moved up from the south and the snowline dropped to 1000m. The high moved to the south on the 12th bringing a cold easterly wind off the sea then a temporary warm up as the high to the east directed a northerly airflow. A cold front on the 15th brought rain ( 7mm ) making it the wettest and coldest day of the month and this was followed by settled weather with morning fog - ahead of a cold front on the 19th bringing a few showers and a dusting of snow to 800m. Progressively warmer between the 20th-25th then weak fronts bringing cooler weather on the 26th-27th with just a brief shower. Heating up impressively at the end of the month across southern Australia with high pressure consolidating to the east of the continent with north to north-west winds. A front on the 30th turned winds from the south with no rain, then it was back to warm northerlies as the high reasserted influence. Extremes in daily temperature for October ( records since 1882 ) : High max: 28.2.....3rd ( record 34.6 in 1987 ) Low max: 12.4.....15th ( record 6.0 in 1958 ) High min: 15.9.....25th ( record 20.2 in 1933 ) Low min: 2.9.....5th ( record 0.0 in 1889 ) Historically dry October
  14. The Australia drought escalates. It is the driest Jan-Oct since 1902 ( which was the driest ). With the Indian Ocean Dipole at historical high values the lack of moisture moving inland from the west is forecast to persist for some time ( together with a delayed northern monsoon ). The eastern side has been unfortunate in recent years by failing to draw in systems from the Pacific. Neutral ENSO conditions in recent years haven't been kind. Climaxing multi-day heatwaves this summer have the potential to be incredibly hot with so much land area drought afflicted. The end of October drew in central heat to the south for a single day but even that was enough for daily maximums to reach top 99th percentile for that date across a very large area. Overall it was the second warmest October on record in Australia for mean maximum temperature.
  15. October finishes with summer-like weather. I noticed a huge 29.4c dirunial temperature range today at Ouse, a small town in Tasmania's inland south. I don't know what the Tasmania record is but today was probably close. Hobart on the south-east coast had a temperature range of 8.7-26.9c ( 10 above average ) with a seabreeze.
  16. Bushfire fatalities confirmed
  17. Another 20 homes destroyed by bushfire in northern New South Wales yesterday bringing the tally to 60 so far in that part of Australia. Fortunately no one has lost their life but there will be short-term financial hardship and presumably many have lost sentimental assets. Pressure builds too on wildlife communities already impacted by habitat loss due to increasing urbanisation. First map is year to date rainfall showing how critically dry it is in northern NSW and southern Queensland. The second map is the two year rainfall deficiencies showing how extended the dry weather has been in that part of Australia extending into the south-east.
  18. September - Hobart, Tasmania Dry and locally very mild. A mean temperature anomaly of +0.8c above 1981-2010 or +1.2c above 1961-1990. With the exception of August every month this year has been drier than the long-term average and on the warm side. Year to date rainfall is a lowly 307mm. Mean maximum: 16.7 ( +1.3 ) Mean minimum: 7.2 ( +0.3 ) Rainfall: 35mm ( average 53mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ) : 7/from 9 Spring starts more settled than normal with long dry periods and minimal amounts of snow in the mountains. The biggest rain event of the month was 20mm between the 6th-8th as a low pressure system crossed from the north-west to amplify off the east coast with light snow cover overnight to 800m. A front moving up from the south-west brought a few showers on the 9th with further light snow settling to 800m whilst a cold front crossing from the west on the 16th with an associated intense low off the south coast brought morning gales and a few showers. The coldest outbreak of the month was extremely brief - a few showers on the morning of the 16th with snow descending to 500m, then clearing to a cold dry night. A warming trend then began with sunny days climaxing on the 20th with a 27.2c max - the seventh highest temperature ever recorded in September. A dry cloudy westerly air stream followed replacing the heat surge from the continent, before a cold front from the west finally brought a few showers on the 29th with an overnight dusting of snow to 700m asl, ending a 12-day dry spell. Extremes in daily temperature for September ( records since 1882 ) High max: 27.2.....20th ( record 31.0 in 1987 ) Low max: 9.9.....7th ( record 6.1 in 1885 ) High min: 12.8.....15th ( record 18.0 in 1973 ) Low min: 1.4.....17th ( record -0.8 in 1897 )
  19. This is a real sight to behold so early into October - a fairly broad area of forecast temperatures at or above 45c+.... and so far south! For the record, Australia's earliest 45c+ day into spring was on October 9th ( 2014 ) in far north-west Western Australia. The earliest 45c+ day into the season in South Australia state was October 20th ( 1988 ) but in the northern part of that state. I placed the settlement of Oak Valley on the map as BoM shows this as having the highest forecast temperature on Friday, of 44c. Regretfully, after doing my quick copy and paste job with the maps, I discover it has no weather station there, its simply a settlement that gets a weather forecast from the BoM. The next closest weather station is the town of Tarcoola just 400km to the south-east, presently its not forecast to get as hot, even though it is at the same elevation. The heat dissipates pretty quickly on Saturday.
  20. 21 homes destroyed by bushfire in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales with one fire fighter critically injured. The situation is still unfolding on Saturday afternoon with emergency alerts for a number of towns. A very early start to the bushfire season even though spring bushfires are more common than summer ones in the sub-tropics. Wind has been hot and windy from the arid north west for a number of days with temperatures in the low to mid 30s at low elevation ( about +10c above average ). If this were last week, many places would be breaking August heat records on both sides of the border. https://www.unorthodox.com.au/fire/#?p=-52.8331,70.7188,4.0771,-162.7188&z=4&s=ct&t=1567832743&v=1
  21. BREAKING...Extremely low temperatures across the entire stretch of Western Australia's inland south this morning. A short time ago, at 4:30am Western Australia time, it was -5.4c at Salmon Gums ( 11 below average ), a record low September temperature for Western Australia, and possibly still on the way down. Salmon Gums has records since 1932. Quite a few negative readings at other places so possibly other individual records. There does seem to be an increasing tendency in recent decades for periods of very low minimums in Australia's south in the colder months, with the southward shift of the subtropical high pressure ridge.
  22. August - Hobart, Tasmania A wet month with heaps of snow on the mountain at times but not particularly cold. A mean temperature anomaly of -0.3c below 1981-2010 or +0.1c above 1961-1990. It was the first colder than average month since February 2018 relative to the 1981-2010 values. This was the first wetter than average month of the year ( long-term averages ), clawing back 2019's big rainfall deficit. Mean maximum: 13.7 ( -- ) Mean minimum: 5.0 ( -0.7 ) Rainfall: 99mm ( average 53mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ) : 9/from 17 A cold front on the 3rd brought a few showers with snow settling near 900m and a front on the 7th brought a local shower or two with light snow settling near 800m. At this point, the biggest cold outbreak of the winter for south-east Australia began with multiple fronts moving up from the south into the continent but this was all to west of Tasmania, while a new low was approaching Tasmania from the south-east. Between this activity on either side the weather was cold, cloudy and calm. The south-east low moved up Tasmania's east coast on the 10th-11th bringing continuous showers ( 27mm ) which fell and settled as snow, but only to 800m. Cold fronts between the 19th-24th with intense low pressure to the south brought big bouts of rain at times combined with snow to moderately low levels, between drier periods. The 19th was windy with a morning snowline of 500m, the 20th became extremely windy ahead of a late front ( 120kmhr/75mph gust in the city ), very wet late on the 21st into the 22nd with a lot of snow on the mountain down to 450m and very wet late on the 24th into the 25th with a lot of snow again down to about 400m asl. This level is just above the highest suburbs. The weather settled down after this with calmer days that were predominantly dry. Extremes in daily temperature for August ( records since 1882 ) : High max: 18.5.....15th ( record 24.5 in 1977 ) Low max: 8.8.....10th ( record 5.5 in 1974 ) High min: 9.4.....27th ( record 15.0 in 2005 ) Low min: 1.2.....9th ( record -1.8 in 1962 )
  23. BoM have uploaded the provisional winter averages for 2019 - ahead of the written summary and media release which should be out on Monday. It was the 15th warmest winter in Australia and ninth driest. June was +0.26c July +1.6c and August +0.26c nationally ( anomalies compared to 1961-90 ). Must admit I am surprised by the positive value for August. The fractionally colder than normal month in Tasmania, Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory was not enough to compensate for areas of warmth in Queensland and Western Australia. Shame about that. Australia has not had a colder than average month ( relative to 1961-90 ) since October 2017.
  24. Perth recorded its highest August temperature of 30.0c on Wednesday ( 11 above average ) blowing away the 1940 record by +2.2c. Other stations in and around Perth, including Rottnest Island, also set a new record for August ( and winter ). Perth has records since 1897 from two official sites - the present one has been operating since 1993. Appears to be an average month in Perth for mean temperature. Perth highest August temperatures ( records since 1897 ) 30.0.....2019 August 28th 27.8.....1940 27.2.....1949 27.2.....1948 27.2.....1914 27.0.....2015
  25. These skiers had a big surprise. You have to be very lucky to see a platypus on land. Mt Field National Park about 50 miles to the west of Hobart, elevation 1200-1300m asl.
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