Team Jo

Currently on a weekender with the kids on Mersea Island and I’m sitting (getting bitten to death) watching the lightning in the distance. Hoping it will amp up a smidge, but the ambient flashing is pretty cool.

Not enjoying the sniping pre 9am folks. Just sipping my coffee and some posts are going to be moved to moans/ramps. Please be courteous and mindful of each other.

Something on the bubble here to my west..

Expecting peak here this afternoon 2pm onwards. Give it a chance!

Just watched probably an hour of silent elevated lightning and a few anvil crawlers just to the north/northwest of us looking towards Chelmsford/Colchester direction, which just bumbled past as it moved east. I thought we might catch a bit overhead but the most e’lery flank seemed to decay as it moved up, not really any rain either but as I was expecting everything a lot further west, and I’m up with a very new baby anyway, I’ll take it as a bonus lightshow!

With Torro, Estofex and a number of credible outlets all with a similar prognosis, some updating really quite recently, I wouldn’t be throwing any towels in just yet, I’d be getting a couple of hours shut eye and seeing what the radar looks like at 1.30/2. I don’t think this will behave like a standard import given the energy it will gain once it gets to our side of the channel, I think we will see some fluctuations in intensity. I’m cool with that! Just a waiting game now. Uncomfortably hot here though (Tropical Brentwood) , my Wx station is still reading 21c. ?

There’s some great analysis in here this afternoon - thank you all for taking the time and effort...... it makes such a difference and I think really educates folks who maybe don’t pop in here much in summer - but also tempers some of the record breaking hysteria that we’ve had over the last couple of days.

If your post is more to do with a funny feeling in your tummy rather than from actual model output/data, then you’re probably best to drop into the model moans/general summer chat threads. ditto if you are searching every single frame for a hint of a downgrade... just let it unfold....! Don’t get sucked in to analysing every single run. Compare like with like... don’t get hung up on the lack of record breaking temps. be cool! Literally... be cool.

Strobing like a good’un to the south of me over the estuary at the moment, totally silent too, love LOVE lightning like this. Awesome colours. Could be a bit rattly in the next hour or so....

Not calling this a bust for another 12 hours min. It’s hazy here but already warming up steadily to just under 20c. Yes I prefer the setups that have 3000 j/kg CAPE and a dewpoint you could swim in behind them, but given we have had weeks of absolutely zilch in terms of interesting weather I will take what I can! - Anecdotally I’ve chased far more juicy setups which have panned out to tepid drizzle and a bit of cloud to cloud. Today is bound to be unpredicatable! Let’s see how things unfold rather than immediately writing it off and obsessively checking radar well before the main event eh.....

Checking in for tomorrow’s potential, have a rare child free night, so have a bit of scope to get out in the car with the camera. Considering taking a trip down to either Shoebury or maybe the east tilbury sea wall at coal house fort, depending on development and placement and timing..... plus how much effort I can muster at 37 weeks pregnant fingers crossed!

Last time I looked at a calendar, there were 22 days left in this month. I think anyone writing off the next three weeks on the basis that we have had a poor start to this month and then deducing the entire summer is a write off, probably needs to take a step back and consider their expectations. 2018 was extreme if you look at historical years with both the heat and the cold. We are not duplicating that this year so far for sure, but by the same token this also doesn't mean that we can confidently say that the next three months are going to be a copy of the last three days.

Thanks. I’m pretty well versed in sun angles. Fairly sure we have had significant heat in August, though so not sure what your point is aside from trying to pick an argument? ??

May I suggest that those who wish to conduct the winter post mortem two day into February perhaps wait until winter is actually over. And by that I mean something like April? I mean, unless you were under a rock last March it is exceptionally premature. Would you write off Summer in August?! No. Calling people out for having the balls to nail their colours to the mast and call a longer range pattern and publicly give a forecast a shot should be applauded not ridiculed. I don’t see many of you who are saying ‘I told you so’ with a great deal of public analysis under your belts. be nice.

Not sure - looks like the front has stalled like Steve said, we just dropped low enough temps for the drizzle to turn into snow, but I also am up a hill too which helps matters. fingers crossed for you!

I’ve not actually checked the radar! Where are you?

Snowing heavily in brentwood and sticking....

We have intermittent snow and then snizzle in camden at the moment. Leaving work in a sec so will see how we're faring at home. Nice bonus falls hopefully!

Yes same here the wind is really howling, It’s Baltic! We do have a bit of snow tho (sorry..)

Okay we’re away! Small flakes blowing about in the not insignificant wind, just outside Brentwood. Most of it’s in the air but it’s a start! ??

1.5c at the mo with a -2c dp. Wind picking up also - We have some decent elevation here so I just hope it doesn’t swizzle before it gets to me...

moderate snow falling here now in Brentwood

I don’t know what everyone else is looking at but on the face of it I think we have a reasonable chance for snow for most over the next few days. The tone/vibe in here is akin to the type of atmosphere I come to expect when we’re experiencing weeks of screaming zonal. I don’t know if some are fatigued, some just want to pick a fight or what. If someone makes a comment that you find not in line with the spirit of the thread, please report it rather than reply to it. And honestly please think about your post before hitting send - if you wouldn’t say it someone’s face in the pub it’s probably best kept off here. The majority come here for weather discussion, not a row, this isn’t the place for open hostility against each other, broadcasters or tv channels or the met office. So Please Keep it civil. I don’t enjoy ploughing through three pages of sniping that has to be trimmed down. I imagine neither does anyone else! Thanks

Hi We seem to have the same commentary every time a BBC forecast comes up and isn’t aligned with the current output- It really has been done to death! And there is a thread specifically for that kind of chat so if you need to express your feelings on broadcast forecasts, we have a place for you!

If you are unable to support your one liner or cannot keep your emotions in check I really suggest you head into banter to moan or even better just step back from the models for a couple of hours. Writing off the winter in January is totally ridiculous. Let’s just nip that in the bud.