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Eskimo

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Everything posted by Eskimo

  1. Gusting 40-50mph here. Looking like we will escape the worst.
  2. Agreed. Although the guy hyperventilating like an F5 tornado had ripped through is funny as hell.
  3. Just a strong breeze here in Brum at the moment. We are normally largely shielded by the strongest winds due to being on a plateau so not expecting 70mph gusts.
  4. Aren't SUSTAINED winds from hurricanes 74mph+? Even Cat 1 gusts regularly reach far beyond 100mph. This storm is nowhere near the destructive impacts of a hurricane, let alone a Cat. 2.
  5. This band of precipitation was forecast to cross Scotland, but looks as though it could be a relatively dry day there now. Yesterday's 12z Today's 06z
  6. Quickly glancing at the 0z GFS ensembles - a greater number now don't have a closed low (underdeveloped) and/or have it crossing southern parts compared to yesterday's 0z. About a quarter just have it as a wave. Don't want to tempt fate, but I feel we are heading, thankfully, to a more watered-down version.
  7. Yes the ensembles are still all over the place, many go north, many go south, many don't develop the low at all.
  8. Control has the low less developed giving more snow across the southern half of the UK.
  9. Now that I'm a homeowner, I'm hoping and praying that the strongest winds occur through the channel.
  10. Sort of. A Bartlett would traditionally give us some of our mildest Winters as it draws up warm southerly air. We've had persistent heights either just to the West or over the top which largely gives us cool but moderate temperatures for the time of year (aka...absolutely boring). Would rather take the Bartlett so at least the daffodils can pop up to give us a little hope.
  11. Looking forward to the warmer weather now so I can get out in the garden, don't think Winter will deliver this year.
  12. Altitude definitely made the difference. No snow on the ground in Hopwood, Worcestershire but as you climb another 50-80m towards longbridge, snow everywhere excluding major highways.
  13. If its just rain here, I don't think ive ever seen rain fall on frosty ground before.
  14. The solar flare and sun spot posts are always a good indication thaf it's looking bleak
  15. Absolutely dire short term weather, absolutely dire long term forecast. At least it's Christmas, have a good one all!
  16. If the trend is to correct the front southward against cold, dense air, then that's typically the trend you'd concentrate on. The fact that a few runs have progressively brought the front further south tends to mean that that's what will likely happen. It's rare to see northward corrections after successive southward corrections. Probably miss us entirely at this rate.
  17. Yeah I can't remember the last time we saw just massive differences at just 4 days out. One thing's for certain, the cold is coming, it's just the energy coming off the Atlantic that's proving difficult model-to-model.
  18. Probably showing a christmas day blizzard for much of the central belt of the UK and the metoffice are covering it up. Don't want to panic people
  19. Just a collision of airmasses completely cancelling out each others momentum.
  20. Right...BANK! No more corrections please GFS, you're good right there. thx.
  21. Yes the 12z brings the 0C isotherm 50 miles further south. Small margins like that mean the difference between cold rain and narnia.
  22. So hang on. We've got this from the GEM (albeit 12 hours ago) And this from the UKMO and I'm supposed to worry about one run from the GFS?
  23. Had it undercut, would it make it less bizarre? Could undercut, but thats both GFS and ECM singing from the same sheet...for now.
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