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Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Gusting 40-50mph here. Looking like we will escape the worst. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agreed. Although the guy hyperventilating like an F5 tornado had ripped through is funny as hell. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just a strong breeze here in Brum at the moment. We are normally largely shielded by the strongest winds due to being on a plateau so not expecting 70mph gusts. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Where can I find the pressure charts please? -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Aren't SUSTAINED winds from hurricanes 74mph+? Even Cat 1 gusts regularly reach far beyond 100mph. This storm is nowhere near the destructive impacts of a hurricane, let alone a Cat. 2. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This band of precipitation was forecast to cross Scotland, but looks as though it could be a relatively dry day there now. Yesterday's 12z Today's 06z -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Quickly glancing at the 0z GFS ensembles - a greater number now don't have a closed low (underdeveloped) and/or have it crossing southern parts compared to yesterday's 0z. About a quarter just have it as a wave. Don't want to tempt fate, but I feel we are heading, thankfully, to a more watered-down version. -
Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Eskimo replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes the ensembles are still all over the place, many go north, many go south, many don't develop the low at all. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February
Eskimo replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would be great if thst chart wasn't nearly 24 hours old -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Eskimo replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Now that I'm a homeowner, I'm hoping and praying that the strongest winds occur through the channel. -
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
Eskimo replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sort of. A Bartlett would traditionally give us some of our mildest Winters as it draws up warm southerly air. We've had persistent heights either just to the West or over the top which largely gives us cool but moderate temperatures for the time of year (aka...absolutely boring). Would rather take the Bartlett so at least the daffodils can pop up to give us a little hope. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The solar flare and sun spot posts are always a good indication thaf it's looking bleak -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the trend is to correct the front southward against cold, dense air, then that's typically the trend you'd concentrate on. The fact that a few runs have progressively brought the front further south tends to mean that that's what will likely happen. It's rare to see northward corrections after successive southward corrections. Probably miss us entirely at this rate. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yeah I can't remember the last time we saw just massive differences at just 4 days out. One thing's for certain, the cold is coming, it's just the energy coming off the Atlantic that's proving difficult model-to-model. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Probably showing a christmas day blizzard for much of the central belt of the UK and the metoffice are covering it up. Don't want to panic people -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just a collision of airmasses completely cancelling out each others momentum. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes the 12z brings the 0C isotherm 50 miles further south. Small margins like that mean the difference between cold rain and narnia. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So hang on. We've got this from the GEM (albeit 12 hours ago) And this from the UKMO and I'm supposed to worry about one run from the GFS? -
Model output discussion - Christmas approaches
Eskimo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Had it undercut, would it make it less bizarre? Could undercut, but thats both GFS and ECM singing from the same sheet...for now.