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Everything posted by PerfectStorm

  1. High pressure further west by 30-40 miles on the latest GFS. Lets see how this pans out. EDIT: Well at least it was at +66h
  2. I don't think a decent easterly was ever modelled. It always looked fairly weak but had the opportunity to be something more. Although slim, there is still some scope for that to happen. And anyway, if some people end up with 6" of snow from a battleground scenario, I doubt they will care about a 'decent cold easterly'
  3. This is why nothing can be trusted beyond 4 days at the moment. Chalk and cheese. 12z Yesterday 12z Today
  4. WOW what a difference! Much smaller warm sector! Yesterdays 12z Todays
  5. It's around 70% effective, which in a meteorological context is a strong statistic. You would probably need a SSW to shut out the Atlantic for a lengthy period anyway.
  6. Considering we have had upgrades, significant upgrades in fact within the 120h timeframe, how can you take anything post 120h seriously?
  7. I advise all members to not be despondent, there's still plenty of interest around the 8-12 day period. In the immediate, cold zonality under light winds can bring bitterly cold nights with hoar frost. It can also bring (with the right ingredients of course) snow to many. The Jet Stream is forecast to track south of the UK so anything can and will happen. In short, reading the models today, we may not see significant snowfall but I don't think we will see just one flake on Ben Nevis either Looking more seasonal going forward after this horrible wet and mild period. That's still better, isn't it?
  8. Not that I can see. Marginal difference but 06z is further west.
  9. Lack of posts sums it up, the GFS 06z is even worse than the 0z. Atlantic comes in quicker.
  10. I was going to say, I have noticed through the years that the GFS always blows up lows when faced with a block.
  11. Could be a few surprises next week as a weak low pushes across southern UK
  12. ECM an upgrade! Low is much flatter. Yesterdays 12z Todays
  13. That's remarkable consistency! GFS 12Z T+336 GFS 18Z T+324
  14. Not bitterly cold, snowy and certainly not record breaking...but at least it will be seasonal.
  15. Block much stronger, pressure building towards Greenland.
  16. No it would be called faux frost
  17. I think 'Faux cold' is a rather apt expression. The models suggest uppers at 4-8C but the surface could be sub-zero. Therefore, weather at the surface doesn't reflect what's going on with the overall atmospheric synoptics. This is contrast to a raging easterly where the uppers AND surface temperatures are both cold. I do understand Weather-history's annoyance at it being called faux as it's not necessarily 'fake', but it's a good way of expressing the major differences between what's going on up in the air and on the ground.
  18. I still for the life of me, even after nearly 10 years of model-watching, can't understand why watching sequential images of weather patterns trickling through over an hour to an hour and a half is fascinating...but it is
  19. That's completely untrue. Of course the majority of the time anything modelled beyond 10 days is unlikely to happen statistically, however I have seen on numerous occasions evolutions at t+384h pan out.