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PerfectStorm

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Everything posted by PerfectStorm

  1. Anyone have word on the developing background signals from early-Dec?
  2. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Current temperature, very spring-like. When do these 'background signals' do something? 🙄🤐
  3. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I was almost accepting it all until I saw this 😞
  4. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Actually, for me, this has been the biggest letdown that I can remember. Buntingford, my former hometown got a decent cover in Hertfordshire today and got a modest cover on Tuesday Hull, my former university city got snow throughout the night and will see snow showers today York, I worked there for just over a year and will see snow throughout today. Birmingham...well...😂
  5. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Shower just passed through.
  6. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I was thinking then, surely it's all relative? -16C uppers were moderated somewhat by the strengthening sun...still bitterly cold mind. -8C uppers in December weren't moderated and broke local seasonal temperature records. I guess though a 'beast' in its strictest sense is an easterly with extremely cold uppers.
  7. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    December 2010!? 😂
  8. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Band to the south of Worcester is pushing north again. I do wonder though if eagerly waiting for the next 5 minute radar update is borderline obsession lol
  9. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Looks like cloud masquerading as snow?
  10. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I don't think there's such thing when you're passionate about something. I love football, but when people dissect every game or get worked up when their team loses, I often think...I'm exactly like that too...just with the weather.
  11. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Would this be the convergence I was talking about? Kudos to the models for picking it up IF that is the case though.
  12. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    "It's not going to snow today because it isn't snowing outside" 🤔
  13. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Good view of it here. You have the warmer, more moist air mass producing the heavier precipitation and the drier, denser air with no precipitation. In the middle is precipitation I would assume is formed from the interaction of the two which is lighter but persistent. It's this that would give people accumulations across the Midlands, IF it happens.
  14. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Convergence zone, it's where two air masses essentially meet each other. When the air clashes, it forces air upwards which CAN produce precipitation.
  15. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    The hirlam (I think it was?) had the line across the Birmingham area, the Euro4 at the time had it further north across south Cheshire.
  16. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I've noticed that the most northern extent of the band isn't reaching northern Ireland. That's where the boundary between the more moist layer and the colder, denser layer is. If you draw the line of the general path of the low, you get an idea of where the convergence would be. Anything along that line stands a good chance of CZ precipitation, anything below would see precipitation from the band, anything further north, likely to be dry. You know what, it ties in very nicely with the MetOffice warnings.
  17. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

  18. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Still heading northeast but looking at the radar animation at full speed, it's gradually easing on the NE extent. Pivot around Herefordshire is my best guess.
  19. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I mean this with sincere respect but I'm quite surprised you look at the MetOffice app, considering you are very well versed in meteorology. Unless there's something about that app which we all don't know 😮
  20. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Birmingham/West midlands conurbation are used interchangeably, the whole of the black country is in that area.
  21. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I should say the Birmingham conurbation.
  22. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Northern extent of the warnings now Birmingham. Amber warming for southern wales and southwest England.
  23. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Probably desperation, but I've noticed some models set up a convergence zone across the West Midlands and this has been consistently modelled for a few days. So, if this is correct, whilst the main lobe of the precip band may not cross much of the Midlands, there maybe some development across the CZ line. That would make sense based on previous experience where the warmer layer squeezes against the colder boundary. You can see in the second picture where the winds converge across Midlands, particularly areas, say, Birmingham to Stoke. Wherever (or more crucially 'if') the CZ line sets up, with any potency it could drop a few centimeters in places where it looks rather bleak for snow. The Euro4 (third image) sets it up across the Cheshire gap eastward, which tells me that the moisture layer has actually pushed further north, it's just that the main band of precipitation fragments across the southern Midlands, giving the illusion that it has pushed south, but I don't think this is true - the front is just being stretched to oblivion by the aforementioned squeeze. Hopefully this cheers some folk up!
  24. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    GFS 18z brings it further south 😂
  25. PerfectStorm

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Blimey, I'm not far from you at the moment, currently in Maypole.
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