Eskimo

must have gone north

At the moment anyone on low-lying areas aren't seeing too much settling snow due to solar insulation. Although its only early March, it's enough for snow to struggle to settle when temperatures aren't particularly low. Higher elevations, away from maybe roads, ARE seeing accumulations due to the lower temperatures offsetting the insulation (probably fairly obvious). At around 4-5pm the UV levels are about 10% of what they are at 12pm so that's when I expect people to see accumulations to start building, providing we actually see precipitation.

Settling readily on vegetation at 250m, possibly an inch or so on the Lickeys. Here at 150m, just slushy deposits. The difference in a 30 second journey down the hill was quite dramatic so the division line is quite sharp. Freezing level should be at around 300m going by that. Freezing level will drop tonight to around 100m, so 5-10cm looking likely for anyone above that line and up to 15cm above 200m would be my educated guess. Below 100m, particularly in the far south of the region, probably not looking at too much due to the higher dew points.

Situation on the lickeys. Slushy deposits.

Settling on vegetation in heavier interludes, but it being March, too much solar insulation for it to be widespread.

Warnings released after people's morning commutes, which impacts people's evening commutes? I don't get that decision.

If the MetOffice update their warnings for today, particularly if it covers the evening rush hour, surely they should be updated before the commute to work/school in the morning? May make people who can work from home reconsider their journey and put less impact on emergency services.

Further south again. Monday 12z Tuesday 12z

I know it's the GEM, but the warm sector now only reaches the Midlands too. Snow north Wales northward.

Northward extent on 00z Northward extent on 06z - we're talking, what ~100 miles further south?

Busy checking its bin lids for a dusting this morning?

You can bring your eyes back up now The GFS has given up.

Eyes down for the GFS 06z. Will it continue the general theme of southerly corrections or will it deepen the low and take it to Tromso? Anything can happen!

06z GFS brings back the slider for Thursday.

Herts/Essex tornado - 16th June 2009. Barely any information on the web. A line of strong thunderstorms developed across Hertfordshire along a convergence zone and dropped a weak tornado near the Essex border. I lived in Buntingford at the time and there was strong rotation above me amongst the blackest sky I've ever seen. A tornado dropped near Hare Street producing some structural damage. The most noteworthy thing was that the storm also dropped over an inch of hail that was reportedly marble-sized at one point and caused flooding to some dwellings. Would have been newsworthy had it impacted a high-population centre.

Can hear the sound of a slowly deflating balloon in this forum. From ecstasy to excrement (mostly) for much of the southern half the UK over the last couple of days. Still, there are a couple of days of wiggle room yet.

The southerly shunting has begun. I feel like if the GFS modelled the low to cross Greenland at day 5, it would still end up running through the channel on the day!!

Not time of the year, sun is still comparatively weak. The airmass isn't as cold for a start but I think the main issue is cloud cover, acts like a blanket to moderate temperatures. Bit counter-intuitive if you think about it, you'd think a sunny day would warm the air up more than a cloudy day (in the winter).

That low on Monday (bar GFS) is pretty much forecast to dance around the British Isles as if it's purposely avoiding the place. Shame, it probably would have dumped significant snowfall in a relatively short period of time somewhere. Well aware of why, but we do have some rotten luck here don't we.

I just know that when the techy strat charts start coming out we are clinging onto dear life. Merry christmas all. Hopefully some seasonal cheer in the new year.

D E F A U L T

My only crumb of comfort for everyone in here is that less than 1% of people across the European continent will see falling snow on Xmas day with the vast majority of countries seeing milder than average conditions - laying snow exclusive to mountains. That remains the case for at least 10 days after if we take the models as gospel. Isn't restricted to our green and pleasant pastures.

Precipitation spikes and members dipping to around -5C is not exciting?

Deeper low on the 12z means it swings further north and west. Variation on a theme.