Eskimo

+60h GFS ever so slightly further south and tilting the right way.

Daniel* That's based on its own algorithm though so the ECM could still be entirely wrong. The GFS isn't on its own.

So it's pretty much ECM & UKMO v GFS, GEM, ARPEGE & ICON ...in terms of that initial front sliding through.

GFS sticking with its guns - snow to rain for northern areas. Perhaps temporary accumulations over hills.

Extending daylight also means stronger sunshine (I know, shock!). I can now feel the sun, the first time I've felt 'warm' in the sun since early november time.

The benefit (some might say the only) of living in Birmingham is that the hills to the west decrease westerly winds speeds for the city and wider region. We are forecast to see 60mph but areas across gloucestershire through the estuary may see 70+ widely.

-5.2C here. Coldest night in a quite a few years.

Noticing twilight at 5pm now which is nice. Another couple of weeks or so and we'll all be driving home in the light.

Yup agreement between the GFS, ECM and UKMO of a storm on Sunday > Monday. Track is very similar in each. Roll on Spring. ECM GFS UKMO

**return of the SLEDi As others have mentioned - probably dry throughout for southern areas if the low is modelled further and further south which imo is the likely option. Copious snowfall for north and west facing coasts. Maybe disturbances in the flow which could bring more widespread snowfall for more inland areas. General theme is cold and dry.

UK ends up under a slack flow meaning temperatures will struggle to get above freezing for most next week.

Jet stream on its way to Iberia for some Winter sun.

Standard Winter fare on the 18z - ends up not being much more than you'd perhaps expect during the Winter season. One run though...

I had assumed next week's 'cold' (really just more seasonal) was always going to be a dry and cold affair anyway? If it's just cold you're after then you don't need cold uppers under high pressure this time of year.

Not sure how much longer I can stand the perpetually grey and rainy days. It was a thoroughly miserable year with a fantastic couple of weeks in september.

It's down for maintenance because they've caught wind of the 12z and are expecting a stonking run. Need the extra capacity.

Rule for first-timers in this forum during the Winter - when the teleconnections and extended-range models start being wheeled out then you know the near-term is looking naff. Despair comes in three stages here: Low stage - GFS +10 day charts are posted. There's still a glimmer of hope but this is the point where the phrase 'clutching at straws' has already overstayed its welcome. Mid stage - Upstream and arctic atmospheric profiles are posted including stuff that's happening on the other side of the planet and stratospheric warming events that are nearly always like chasing a metaphoric rainbow. This is where the phrase 'toys out of the pram' becomes a common occurence. High stage - The extended T+1000 CFS is posted. This is peak desparation and is normally posted by masochists. This is the point where the forum goes very quiet and only the strangest bunch frequent the site. TLDR: If there's more than 100 people on the site at any given moment then there's still an air of positivity. Anything less then just tell your family and friends you love them and quietly make your way out of the building via the nearest exit.

Currently in NYC where its 14C! Despite me being on holiday I'm still missing the cold conditions!

Don't think it was expected to be operational for a few years yet?

GFS puts the main risk for tomorrow in the Midlands. Up to 100mm.

Is there a reason why they don't issue the warnings all at once?

It's the time of year now where I wake up and see the darkness through the curtains and think "oh goodie I've got another few hours in bed" and then moments later the alarm goes off.

Potentially. I reckon a large chunk of the reason we reached 40C last year so quickly (typically without the need for prolonged spell) in that short heat snap was because much of western Europe was the driest it had been in over 300 years before it arrived. The air wasn't picking up the moisture it would normally do which limits extreme temperatures. This year has been different.

What would the temps be if it were mid-July. Historically I would've said at least 38C?

Tasty! Ingredients are there for more vigorous storms today.