Alexis

At least we're now at the time of year where it's difficult for it to feel cold as long as the sun's out and it's not too breezy. Felt warmer in 12C sun today than in 16C cloud yesterday to me. Now it's evening my face actually feels warm - I should have put sun cream on!

"Just a weak front affecting the Lake District, which is mostly cloud" they said on the BBC...

I think this rain has caught all the models by surprise.

Presumably the wall of water in the Irish Sea is going to move over us? The latest BBC website forecast (11 hours old) shows a different reality for 9am

We've done well this weekend. 2 weeks of dross to come unfortunately, but you never know. This weekend's synoptics don't scream sun when you look at them.

Now there's your rain shadow. Even more pronounced in Preston Blackburn.

Fog suddenly appeared 20 minutes ago. Getting thicker

Was 75% snow 25% rain for a bit, but gone back to sleety drizzle.

Just turned a bit sleety

As I said on Monday, we'd see 8 or 9 big snow events each winter if these sort of setups delivered. Really need deep entrenched cold, with a long fetch south easterly and a slow moving front. I can't remember the last time a front from the south west sped in and dumped a load of snow outside Pennine areas. The low just isn't slidey enough. But, not to say one out of every 20 attempts might just do it.

Well it is currently too mild for snow to fall and settle. Colder air seeps south this evening and overnight.

Apple weather app is the worst. "Moderate snow warning!(rain symbol)"

Why nothing much below 200m Kasim going by the freezing level in the Deep Dive? They show a freezing level of sea level to the west of the region, even out to sea.

The snowshield appears on pretty much every high res run, especially the accumulation ones. I've seen them be accurate and I've seen no shield at all. Like all predictive tools they can be right and wrong.

Thursday would be nice but I always think that if we can suddenly switch from mild southwesterlies to a snowmaker just like that, we'd see about 10 snow events every winter!