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Suburban Streamer

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  1. Suburban Streamer
    Here's my forecast for 15/16. Too long to post in here properly, here's the link https://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1516/
  2. Suburban Streamer
    i was born in an easterly and -10c upper air. A novelty that still hasn't worn off 36 years later!
  3. Suburban Streamer
    Decent ozone anoms, particularly over the North Pacific & North Altantic. Tropical strat temps still a little high, no way near the temps we saw last Autumn, though the wqbo is likely showing its hand here to at least some degree...?
  4. Suburban Streamer
    Snow tomorrow dependant on timing. midday fax is promising, if we can get it into east anglia/home counties towards sunset, then game on. Also later in the night another band likely. Timing key or it'll be sleety shame it gets milder on friday, but still some snow falling without needing the lamp post would be pretty marvellous to see
  5. Suburban Streamer
    Yeah i did that one very quickly. Just to highlight the potential further south more than anything. Of course nowcast all the way
  6. Suburban Streamer
    tomorrow night will come down to luck of the draw with shower tracks, but away from coasts and lowest ground, some snow falling looks a decent shout. Then late weekend into next week is all to play for, no need for any doom and gloom, as we enter a period that brings the biggest chances of snow so far this winter. Here's my map for tomorrow night, but of course it'll be a nowcast thing, fingers crossed and best of luck to all
  7. Suburban Streamer
    hi everyone, my winter forecast is available here (too long so i wont copy the whole thing into here) fingers crossed for some decent wintry spells http://londonwx.wordpress.com/winter-1415/
  8. Suburban Streamer
    thanks Ed, more a gentle hike than stroll
  9. Suburban Streamer
    Sylvain has just confirmed to me on twitter that the new gfs will be running in parallel from some point in the next two weeks
  10. Suburban Streamer
    despite the relative enso hype earlier in the year, caution was indeed correct. Going to be interesting to see how this one develops
  11. Suburban Streamer
    This game is genius
  12. Suburban Streamer
    East anglia and north up the east coast looks fairly promising tomorrow in terms of instability, and none of that convective inhibition we have seen today. my chances in north london dont look as good but fingers crossed as always
  13. Suburban Streamer
    far too cloudy to trigger any storms unfortunately. at least its stopped raining with just a few showers remaining Weekend looks horrid i put together a little forecast for the weekend http://tinyurl.com/forecast-weekend HP mid-end next week? yes please!
  14. Suburban Streamer
    theres a chance, but south coast is favoured. i think for you and i, best chance for storms looks like Thursday. Hope so PS i know exactly what u mean! i think its just teasing us
  15. Suburban Streamer
    LOL at two weeks, more like 3 days. Here's my bank hol forecast. (Perhaps a touch premature). Ignoring details, at least the general theme of dry with temps recovering looks decent enough tinyurl.com/ku322bu High pressure looks likely to topple pretty quick by monday, but after a relatively unsettled 1st week of May, i have recently been looking at some signals that suggest high pressure in our vicinity. These signals being a very strong spike in tendency relative angular momentum as a result of a strong global mountain torque. This idea is gaining credence somewhat with decent agreement on MJO phase 1 and NWP does seem to now be toying with this idea, albeit in FI. Fingers crossed hey Great pics back there Tams
  16. Suburban Streamer
    hi all totally agree about the cold - i'm quite a hardened snow lover but also a keen gardener so all im interested in now is when can i put the veg out! Some interest tomorrow with nmm modelling some decent CAPE / LI values for inland parts of East anglia/SE eng and e mids friday afternoon. Lets see if we can get lucky
  17. Suburban Streamer
    This is an interesting article. Read something about this last year. Teleconnections in noctilucent clouds: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/16apr_teleconnections/
  18. Suburban Streamer
    now cue the easterly bursts and the LA nina predictions Tongue in cheek of course, but i stay firmly on the fence with this enso hype!
  19. Suburban Streamer
    worth monitoring the PDO in this respect. No super el nino has occured within cold phase of the PDO. However we have gone weakly positive so far this year, if that continues, it could increase confidence somewhat i guess. Personally, i wont be convinced that we will see el nino at all until i see more downwelling kelvin waves (like the current monster). Until then i'm on the fence regarding ENSO. The writing does appear to be on the wall, but we have seen this in the past come to nothing
  20. Suburban Streamer
    this is an interesting read. Not a term i recall coming across before, but apologies if its already been posted Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation: http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=holton%20tan%20relationship&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEkQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.researchgate.net%2Fprofile%2FHua_Lu10%2Fpublication%2F260079132_Mechanisms_for_the_Holton-Tan_relationship_and_its_decadal_variation%2Ffile%2F3deec52f525b6cb7c5.pdf&ei=HMcZU4K4GYO2hQfqv4CYBw&usg=AFQjCNG-pS_vGvf9O3NShQyhaJsLzHkwDg&bvm=bv.62578216,d.ZG4 Long link but it does work!
  21. Suburban Streamer
    doesnt quite work like that but only 3 SSW's in 30 years worth of WQBO winters is telling! Not that this winter was entirely devoid of any strat warmings. There was wave activity and warming a plenty but not quite official SSW status and with the PV consolidating quickly soon after. Winter 2014/15 looks like being EQBO which will help avoid the development of such a strong PV and likely to be el nino which is known to create warmer polar strat conditions. SSW's more common in EQBO winters, as with both enso phases. So a more promising outlook for next winter, though how the uk will fair, is of course anyones guess at this stage. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/37CDPW/37cdpw-abutler.pdf
  22. Suburban Streamer
    i was under the impression temps would dip close to freezing inland (1 or 2c) and a little higher towards east/se coasts where cloud lingers (3 or 4c) Further west, where clouds clear, looks like it could dip below freezing
  23. Suburban Streamer
    thats why some of us were glued to the 10.7 solar flux. This winter was a Smax but it was still fairly low. And on top of that we had the strongest wqbo on record. Perhaps if the wqbo had not been as strong, the flux would have been sufficient, and it came pretty close to an official ssw, which considering the strength of the PV, was quite remarkable in itself http://solar.physics.montana.edu/SVECSE2008/pdf/labitzke_svecse.pdf
  24. Suburban Streamer
    he's basically saying that other forcings aside from the stratosphere influence our weather patterns in summer
  25. Suburban Streamer
    There are certianly inklings of a FW that could be quite strong and not as late as is possible with such a cold and dominant pv. Recent strong mountain torque has introduced a strong burst of westerlies into the equation. A slight spike in AAM sending GWO into low amp phases 5-6-7. Wave 1 on the rise and likely to see yet another tag team with wave 2 into march. I suspect another round of strong MT is required? Flux and temp forecasts suggestive of something similar to what we saw early Feb. This time round, of course, the PV/zonal winds are weaker so perhaps potential for a meatier FW that may finally cause some lasting damage to the beastly PV? Of course, i'm well aware that most of us monitor the strat because we pin our hopes of sustained cold weather on these events and a FW isnt exactly terribly exciting from that POV. But i'm fascinated (as well as being equally frustrated) with this seasons remarkably strong PV and now my interests move towards how long into Spring it will persist etc etc, hence this post. As well as the likelihood that a strong FW will have implications on our April weather patterns. We still have some way to go, but there are the subtlest of hints at this early stage? Now if the FW does pan out favourably then I've got one eye on end march/early april 1967. Lots of speculation, sorry! EDIT: doh, just seen Chiono's post above...
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