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John S2

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  1. Here in NW England we expect the month of August to be poor - decent Augusts have always been uncommon - but what is depressing is a recent tendency for very wet Junes. June 2020 is yet another that features in the top 20 wettest Junes for this region [Hadley regional data for last 148 years]. We now have 6 of the last 15 years that feature in the top 20 wettest: 2012 (1), 2007 (2), 2017 (12), 2020 (14), 2019 (16), 2016 (18) In a stable climate it would be expected that only a couple of the last fifteen years would be in the top twenty. The fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moist
  2. Considering years from 1950 to present, my best analogue years are 1974, 1980, 1988, 2007 No year is ever a perfect match of course. I have rejected years with dry winters or El Nino summers as it looks likely there will be a tendency towards La Nina during summer 2020. However, Matt Hugo on Twitter has posted today that a seasonal model update he has access to is now showing a +ve pressure anomaly for NW Europe this summer. This gives hope to anyone who might find memories of the years mentioned above a little depressing.
  3. July 2013 was a hot month for the UK although it has to be accepted that it followed a run of six poor summers. On the subject of summer 2015 one possible influence is shown in this chart: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201501-201507.gif An area of the North Atlantic was record cold for the Jan-July period and given that our weather generally comes from the West this is bound to have some effect on temperatures. The fact that this area has been record cold does not mean that global warming is not happening. One of the contributing factors is increasing Gree
  4. Yes. The inundation of New York due to Hurricane Sandy was made worse by a one foot rise in sea level in that area over the last century:http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/superstorm-sandy-and-sea-level-rise It should also be pointed out that sea level has recently been rising faster than IPCC estimates.
  5. Sea level is rising at a rate of 3.2mm/year, as this chart from University of Colorado shows:http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
  6. It will be interesting to see what reputable climate scientists have to say about the methodology.Is this latest paper another attempt at suggesting that most recent warming is natural? The methodology employed by these authors has been found to be flawed on previous occasions.
  7. La Nina appears to be a more stable pattern than El Nino. I suspect this is because La Nina is an enhancement of normal [ie ENSO neutral] conditions, El Nino is a reversal of normal.
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