AutumnMists

I wouldn't be too sure ... but surely a tad more than that? Temperatures perhaps colder more inland compared to Durham but I think with precipitation confidence fairly high ... I'd go for 70%. I'm always wrong though

It's been a neat little Autumn with the weather suiting all preferences ... I almost forgot about that nice warm sunny start to September though as Millhouse pointed out The Wintry flavour at the end of October/start of November seems all but forgotten now, although it was of course interesting at the time with some notable frost and wintry precipitation for some. November itself will be remembered by some users as perhaps a bit of a let down, in the fact that the start of November brought many excitement given the seasonably cool models and high hopes of an early start to Winter ... this however never truly materialized as some were expecting. Instead of a possible Wintry-like November, we instead got some rather non-meaningful temperatures covered with notable extremes of rainfall, very sadly causing damaging floods and this was coupled with typical Autumn Gales which perhaps overshadowed the overall look back of Autumn 2012 as being a bit of a poor one, no doubt that in 20 years time it certainly won't be one to remember like 2011 was. Anyway, this thread is becoming ever so quiet now ... most posts seem to be happening.. mhmm ... elsewhere.

In terms of the shorter range ... possibility of a frost tonight although for most temperatures will settle just above the freezing level for most, perhaps. ... blue skies for me tomorrow and Thursday (with the odd clouds tomorrow) ... coupled with ever lasting morning frosts and crisp cold afternoons with the ever so ineffective sunshine ... Bliss! A definite frost on Wednesday night for most, clear spells looking very likely with temperatures for most dead around 0. Any snow/sleet/rain arriving Friday night (But most probably Saturday early doors) for most ... Although with the overcast forecast for Thursday night for some ... perhaps the odd chance of some flurries on Thursday Night.

3.7, cheers.

Well, the BBC/met Office do seem to also dive in on the cold, snow for me Saturday, a week today and a week on Thursday ... Doubt it will be right considering the milder 'blip' in prospect for early next week. Very exciting times ahead for us in the North, though ... especially this weekend ... I'm fairly confident that, on average, most places won't get above 2'C in the day if that.

You're not the only one that is a bit miffed about next week! The general scenario I think the models (despite their ever increasing conflicting signals) is for a cold snap this weekend with some possible notable falls the further North and East you go (away from these areas, the higher up you go) ... Some decent agreement for a breakdown of the cold from the 3/4th onwards. Looking even further ahead and just picking out the best bits, a ever so slight touch of a cold resurgence - perhaps - later on next week ... although this is extremely far away and could turn out to be a non event. Speaking of non events, as some users have pointed out, I feel for the Irish.

3rd and 4th I should say. I'm not with it today

I honestly remember 08/09 being almost an outstanding winter if I'm being honest ... it was brilliant and had it all. Also, unlike 10/11, all the cold snaps were spread out and all three Winter months had at least one decent snowfall which lasted more than two days. I truly exceptional winter, was better than 2010/2011 in many ways.

Well I am very surprised because here January 2009 was also a decent month with about 3 separate occasions, and about 10 days of lying snow in total. Just goes to show how much of a regionalized winter 2008/09 was

To be precise, I think the snow quickly arrived on December 1st overnight (quickly gave 10-15 cm in my location near the Pennines) followed by a morning of light snow showers. Caused light disruption on the morning in question including many school closures (mainly in towns close to the Pennines around my area; Oldham, Tameside, Rochdale, Huddersfield, Leeds, Bolton etc.) An extremely disruptive amount of snow was forecast widespread for us in the North of England a few days later on Thurs 4th December, instead most of this fell as sleet or rain unfortunately but it still stayed cold until say the end of the week. The reason why I'm describing all this is because the models, on average, seem pitch perfect for a repeat of 2008 but I know I shouldn't pattern match and I'm just tossing around ideas

I remember 2008 very well, I think it was about the 1st-7th of December which effected Northern England. Our snow cover lasted about a week if I can recall (about 10-15 cm). I am one for historics .. and 2008 actually seems to stick in my mind quite well. I also remember all the Pennine passes being closed in my area

It's been a beautiful day here today, so beautiful I went for a stroll on the Pennines. Masses of walkers, blue skies, crisp, cold, certainly was a great day!

If I'm being really honest, this situation just reminds me of 2008

I think we had about 5 days of lying snow here last winter, 4 of which was in February purely because we had 4 days of fog which meant the temperatures didn't really get above 1'C. I sometimes forget that I am lucky living where I actually am in that it's extremely unlikely not to get more than 2 days of lying snow here (in the South Pennines)

I think I may have explained that a bit too vague I shouldn't have used the word pattern, I was just throwing some ideas across really. Thank you for your input though

Seems out of character for you to say that To be realistic though, perhaps a pattern similar to November/December 2008? (25th November 2008 to 6th December 2008, a seasonable start to Winter especially in the North, Pennines seeing locally around 15cm of snow which lasted on the hills until the 10th December). I recall this one very well as it was pretty much the largest snowfall since 2005. (Despite this, as I said, it was sort of a more 'seasonable' start to the Winter than an 'extreme' one like 2010).

Had a bet with a mate that the Latics will suffer from three or more postponments at Bounday Park this Winter/Spring. Hoping it's a good call!

Extremely cold day here on the edge of the Pennines in Oldham for November but very pleasant with sunny spells and no rain. Frost for most tonight

I haven't read it and I'm not planning too (as I'm sure many people on here aren't either). It's better to stick to professionals instead of amateurs that waste their time and don't really know anything.

Thanks for the forecast. Seems extremely realistic compared to some other's you see lingering around the web nowadays

I was just throwing back and forth some ideas. I myself just have a slight feeling December will end up average or above with above average rainfall although I cannot say anything for truth at the moment, thus I will have probably changed my mind in two weeks!

December looks bleak though, wet and mild like last year. 2003/2004 anyone?

That is why I have been referring to 08/09. Some people seem to be ruling out this Winter much much to easily

It is a good job November is starting to look more above average then This means the blocking does have time to come back. Think 2008/2009

I suppose it also depends on location as well, for example here in the Pennines the largest accumulation was January 2010, then February 2009 then December 2010