Robbie Garrett

Nothing notable really, some convective rainfall. It's a high based Cb also with quite a low top, hence the lack of oomph.

Very dark to my South west, it's been going since the English Channel. Let's see what London does to it

And that cell to my SW is heading NE towards me, getting closer. Very dark below it.

That storm looks Brutal.

A few isolated CB's around. As you say though, nothing concrete. It might be some of the energy being shunted out of the main storms, so just leftovers.

The atmosphere is destabilising over London right now, getting darker to the south. Some Convective rainfall also, not much though. Anyone further south of London getting any Cbs?

MetOffice now showing a MCS engulfing London and the South East tonight. Click Here

Either that or it's a big one over Kent :S

Haze and skies clearing over London, right come on Diurnal. Get going.

Looking at the majority of the models and the CFSv2 for averaging out the models, it looks likely a ridging of high pressure till mid month across the UK from the Azores with a brief interlude from the north, so quite clear and likely a lot chilly than of later. But it depends on how far that riding can reach us and stay as a player for the outlook into July. I'd say high pressure will be flirting with us for the next few weeks. NCEP (NMC) plots an interesting few weeks upcoming with high pressure to our west, with further high pressure likely to build in from the South East across Europe. Maybe the first tell-tale signs of a complete block across Europe for Summer? Although it's 360hrs out so quite a way away from being certain or likely.

Level 3 for nothing happening, especially here.

Pretty humid looking this morning, with lots of instability. A lot of muck from that French > Belgium storm. The usual distinct direction heading away from SE England. Any imports are going to come from the Bay of Biscay in the clear air, so looking at that area later.

That Paris storm is bonkers :O

Was looking at that on the MetOffice website. Worth keeping an eye on, models CANNOT pin point where a storm starts let alone an MCS, hopefully this gets a westward correction and heads up towards London, Central and SE England etc - it's been ages since we got some decent imports. SSTs are about 12-14*C during the night in the Channel at the moment. Looking at this, it would be a good display in the channel. Problem again is the wind direction, if it was southerly, south easterly we'd get a direct hit. Most if not all imports would head North Easterly.

All the showers popping up are due to a surface based trough from Southern Island to the Bay of Biscay, at midnight. Showers developing more widely over land by Midday. You can see that feature quite clearly now.

Although saying that, a few of the (White looking) Cumulus clouds are now going very grey, let's see...

Quite a disappointment, had a few storms pass Gatwick/Heathrow way - causing a bit of disruption to some of today's schedules. I'd say a few isolated storms crossing the country tomorrow, but that's about it.

Nothing here yet, we seem to be very dark and stormy at high level but cannot tell! Is it me or has the front stalled somewhat overnight, very slow compared to its predicted pace.

And uses Cambridge in East England for the soundings, can't quite put my head around that one. Surely Manchester/Wales would have been a better Soundings choice. I'll eat my hat if all the Midlands/Northwest get the Severe storms again, because I am looking at the MetOffice rainfall prediction and it ties in against what the front/wind direction and where the energy is tonight. If this here is correct, then London and the Home Counties won't exist come tomorrow morning. Heathrow TAF is going for the following tomorrow AM. Probability 30% : Temporary from 07 at 01 UTC to 07 at 06 UTC Wind 03 kt from variable directions Visibility 5000 m Broken clouds at a height of 4800 ft , Cumulonimbus. thunderstorm rain Probability 40% : Temporary from 07 at 06 UTC to 07 at 14 UTC Wind 17 kt from variable directions with gusts up to 28 kt Visibility 2500 m Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft Broken clouds at a height of 3500 ft , Cumulonimbus. heavy thunderstorm hail

Two time-frames of interest - quite a huge amount of rainfall, maybe an MCS or two? That front is going at 25knots+ looking at the aviation forecast so that's (28-29mph). 04:00am 07:00am

Well I am not 100% on anything organised, but individual cells clustered closely together is more likely I'd say. I'd say two waves of storms tonight, initially from the trough then the cold front. See First Wave - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&zoom=7&lon=-1.61&lat=51.09&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1402056000 Second Wave - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london-greater-london#?tab=map&zoom=7&lon=-1.61&lat=51.09&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1402077600 This tonight would be great

I'd say nothing can beat a good old bit of now-casting, and that's what tonight will be. The fact that all the elements are in place, doesn't mean it will happen - those who remember a few years back when we all expected everything to work out nicely, and the front stalled. Tonight we have a trough feature right where there's likely to be good juice in place, if that ignites I'd suspect to see some Monsters head up into Southern England into the very early hours of the morning. Possibly an MCS, I doubt there's much organisation for a supercell. Quite a bit of CAPE tonight and a decent -LI, I suspect anything ahead of the Trough/Cold Front will likely be clustered and moving in the northerly direction.

It's been 16-17 years since I last heard booming thunder and lightning from an MCS, let's hope that end comes very soon. I am sure it's been that long here in London. Those all nighters we used to get were amazing.

I just had a brief look at the Model's, GFS High Resolution showing lots of Surface Based Scape/-LI in the later hours Friday Evening. Over France, wondering if there's any potential for storms to track north/northwest from that area. That looks to be the only hope I can see for some decent imports. That is rather looking juicy Friday evening, especially looking at the Occlusion and Trough rolling through.

Sounds like my mother