Robbie Garrett

Interesting set-up probably going to develop late-mid month. 240hrs out the ECMWF and GFS are similar but not carbon copies. FI looks to move a cold pool of Scandinavia post 240hrs, first signs of a change to the norm? That Jet Stream is really strong throughout January, no surprise for a rinse repeat of Oct-Dec 2015 throughout the majority of January. Where's that Pesky Azores High?

Going all out... -0.7 C

16.9c

It would be pretty amazing if we get one of those this Summer I remember them well!!!

Maybe late 1990s, early 2000's - this still doesn't compare to those MCS imports we used to get. They lasted all night long, constant lightning and booming thunder. These are all single cells, and not that severe in nature.

Well the cell that was over Mitcham/Wimbledon exploded 5-10 minutes ago, I could hear people in the area watching just saying oh wow. It really kicked off before heading into North London.

Posted by someone from BBC south. This is the aftermath of Bournemouth...

Taken with the GoPro as everything kicked off.. Strike in South London Some Inter-cloud stuff as the cell passed overhead. and a tower block (presumably Brixton/Streatham) gets a direct hit

Someone just took this that I follow on Instagram.

Told you east of Heathrow. I've been filming in night mode with the GoPro 4K Black Edition, can't wait to see what the results show. #storm#thunder and "The Lightning" All now trending across the UK.

There's 3 disctint cells as the moment. One over West London, one over Bromley/Dartford way, and one north east of Romford. One just forming over Mitcham now as I type.

I came in 15 minutes ago, had a massive IC lightning and heavy rain. Now lots of flashes to the south and south east of SE17 (Elephant & Castle) - all of this is home grown, so the cap is well and truly broken. I've always said there's something magical when this setup is perfect, the south downs and London produce something special.

Just had a look at what the MetOffice has put on its rainfall radar forecast map. Appears to be somethimg big moving north east between 2300 and 0100am through London. What's everyones thoughts??

I seem to remember that after a late evening and long hot day - London provides a heat island affect that nowhere else can match in the UK, 7 times out of 10 it's exploded storms normally drifting over from the South, the south downs also gets things going. You just have to fly along the South Downs in an airplane or depart London Gatwick and you'll realise how turbulent that area is. I guess it's not exact science but theoretically it's plausible that some sort of acts are at work there that help break the CAP on a regular basis. Looking at the TAF's I'd hazard a guess anything east of Heathrow is where the CAP will be broken tonight. The storms being more severe the further east you go. The AIRMET also says quite a sea-breeze going on in the SE. 0000085600 628 FAUK34 EGRR 030430 AIRMET AREA FORECAST, SOUTHEAST ENGLAND, VALID JUL 03/0600Z TO 03/1500Z. MET-SITUATION: AT 06Z, A LIGHT TO MOD STABLE ENE FLOW AFFECTS THE REGION. STRONG WIND WRNG: ISOL SEA COT, MAINLY FM 12Z, 20-25KT GUSTS. Heathrow 30% chance - EGLL 030453Z 0306/0412 VRB04KT CAVOK BECMG 0311/0314 09010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0321/0401 09015G25KT 5000 +SHRA TSRA BECMG 0403/0406 24010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0404/0406 9000 BKN012 Temporary from 03 at 21 UTC to 04 at 01 UTC Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 25 kt Visibility: 5000 m heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain Gatwick 40% chance - EGKK 030503Z 0306/0412 VRB04KT 9999 FEW030 BECMG 0312/0315 09010KT PROB40 TEMPO 0320/0324 08015G25KT 3000 +SHRA TSRA BECMG 0403/0406 23010KT PROB30 TEMPO 0405/0408 8000 BKN010 Temporary from 03 at 20 UTC to 03 at 24 UTC Wind 15 kt from the East with gusts up to 25 kt Visibility: 3000 m heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain

Well the Heathrow TAF forecast says Thunderstorms for 8am to 12pm tomorrow, at 4000ft. I'd say it's probably going to be a Kent/London Clipper with the majority staying out over the Channel. Very tired but what's the wind direction doing, I was flying earlier and it was heading from the east. PROB30 TEMPO 0207/0211 6000 TSRA SCT010 BKN040CB

So is this an exact science and could 38.5*C have been toppled today if it wasn't for the cloud? Looking at the METAR's for Heathrow it toppled by 4*C before rising again. If that 4*C drop didn't happen would 36.7*C have become 40.7*C? EGLL 011020Z 15016KT CAVOK 34/13 Q1011 NOSIG EGLL 011050Z 17015KT CAVOK 32/12 Q1011 NOSIG EGLL 011120Z 16010KT CAVOK 30/14 Q1011

30°c at 0950 Local 32°c at 1050 Local 34°c at 1150 Local 35°c at 1250 Local 36°c at 1350 Local 37°c at 1450 Local EGLL 100750Z 07003KT 5000 HZ FEW070 27/16 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 100850Z 16003KT 9000 FEW070 30/16 Q1017 NOSIG EGLL 100950Z 04002KT CAVOK 32/15 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 101020Z 16004KT 120V210 CAVOK 32/14 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 101050Z 14005KT 100V310 CAVOK 34/14 Q1016 NOSIG EGLL 101150Z 13010KT 100V160 CAVOK 35/14 Q1015 NOSIG EGLL 101250Z 14009KT 050V190 CAVOK 36/10 Q1015 NOSIG EGLL 101350Z 20012KT CAVOK 37/06 Q1015 NOSIG

That one sentence was amazing. Quite technical, I seem to remember the wind completely changing direction during the day. It was very hot that's for sure, and I had a play-school trip to Kew Gardens that day ahha!

Thursday 2nd July/Friday 3rd July - High between 23-37°C. Saturday, Sunday and Monday could hit 39°c (I doubt it but the models have it somewhere in between at the moment, the sun is a lot stronger than 10th August that's for sure) I wonder if the record could be broken?

July 1st - 34*C - Heathrow/Kew Gardens and St James Park

20.1*C

I am your work neighbour it seems.

Same. Right, slow start this year. Lets hope for a big one.

Almost 4 years to the day the models picked up on the dramatic changes, they again pick up on all the signals for another possible early and cold start. Could this be a rinse/repeat or better? 2014 15th 12z run 2010 15th 12z Run Oh and guess what else it did? The same as todays. Defaulted to Atlantic... But Santa Clause had other ideas that year.