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Robbie Garrett

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Posts posted by Robbie Garrett

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Effectively, yes, strong upper winds are important in sustaining and organising storms, not just deep layer shear, strong DLS is required for bowing-line segments and supercell structures that produce large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes though.

    At least I have a stronger pulse heading towards me in Croydon, flashing away to my southwest though can't hear the thunder quite yet.

     

    2340.JPG

    The late running BA455 from Malaga found a gap between those cells somehow.  This isn't the usual routing from that direction.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ba455#111eaa46

    Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    MetOffice just done some covering.  Severe weather warning out in force for rain between Sat 20:30 and Sun 6:00

     

    Further details

    Scattered thunderstorms will move northeast across much of southern, central and eastern England overnight. Whilst some places will miss these storms and remain dry, where they do occur some heavy rain and frequent lightning is likely. 15-20 mm of rain may fall in a short space of time . Hail and gusty winds are also possible very locally. The storms will clear from the west overnight.

    Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, c00ps said:

    Stuck on m2 near blue bell hill. Not moved in 30mins. Anyone know anything? 

    M2 queue-32.png Moderate Location : The M2 eastbound between junctions J1 and J3 . Reason : Congestion. Status : Currently Active. Return To Normal : Normal traffic conditions are expected between 14:15 and 14:30 on 27 February 2018. Delay : There are currently delays of 40 minutes against expected traffic.  
    M2 queue-32.png Moderate Location : The M2 westbound between junctions J3 and J2 . Reason : Congestion. Status : Currently Active. Return To Normal : Normal traffic conditions are expected between 13:30 and 13:45 on 27 February 2018. Delay : There are currently delays of 20 minutes 

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Interestingly didn't the 2010 Nov/Dec event get completely wrong post 4 days?  

    IIRC, it was all muddled till the events unfolded and lasted a month. 

    I've seen hints of a Greenland high. Which in my eyes is much better than a Scandi high.  Look at the angle of the jet if you completely block it to our NW vs NE.  On a Scandi high we are far too west to stop a breakdown. But a longer spell with retrogression to Greenland. 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, smhouston said:

    For a different thread, but extremely surprised how this has not been publically escalated by the METO. Absolutely dangerous conditions coming up...it's not the snow that kills. Extremely worrying just how cold it'll get and there are a lot of vulnerable people out there.

    Quite good points, they've already issued a yellow warning for the SE corner  late Monday afternoon, at a risk of high impact but very unlikely. At this stage the development of these shower bands and the exact locations and timing of these is very uncertain. It's not had a cold spell warning trigger yet.

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