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Robbie Garrett

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I saw this posted on Twitter earlier; a tripole anomaly in the Atlantic clearly shows a band of cooler waters sandwiched by warmer waters to the north and south. The cold winters of 2009/10 and late 2010 were characterised by a similar tripole pattern in the North Atlantic which produced a negative NAO.

    image.thumb.png.c47245d0a9e7a933b5a3209b75be810d.png

    • Like 22

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Robbie Garrett

    Interesting 06z run - goes for height rises to our SW/W from the Azores.  Jetstream starts to buckle

    image.thumb.png.688b1176fcd741fa1becb0251efe0574.png

    image.thumb.png.6b4454f436e57266f093c59bf938af59.png


    Semi reliable time-frame - wonder if further runs will start indicating this?  Somewhat similar to the UKMO line of thinking.

    Quote

    From mid-month, the most unsettled conditions are likely to transfer further north, with areas further south perhaps having some drier spells of weather at times. Within these drier spells, some overnight frost and fog is possible. Temperatures mostly close to normal for the time of year, perhaps becoming mild at times later in the south.

    A cut off low below the high in the Med

    image.thumb.png.957df8f37cad24e65622d06e423fefc1.png

    Wonder what's causing the height rises and the evolution of a Scandi high over the UK towards Mid-End of November.

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    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    I do remember reading years ago that statistically, cool and wet November's gave the best chance of a cold proceeding winter. It was quite specific. Dry November's did not bode well. Wet and warm November's also didn't bode well. Specifically cool and wet were the best harbingers for a cold and blocked winter. 

    Considering this is how November 2nd was in 2010

    image.thumb.png.1d24179c8cc815582678a226a91f8f97.png

    It's not bad 2023

    image.thumb.png.883559be6d223839b29c51447ace08d7.png

    Things can change very dramatically.

    End of November 2010

    image.thumb.png.fe7d839176a9ff2b9268e8d38193ddd7.png

     

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