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Robbie Garrett

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Everything posted by Robbie Garrett

  1. Very interesting over at the WPC Extended Forecast Discussion. Models are struggling somewhat post Day 4, as I said last night - taking anything post 96 hours with the finest pinch of salt. Anything after this period I think should be looked at, but not through rose tinted glasses. Appears to be some variability regarding the Alaskan ridge and the cutoff low which assists the building of a ridge to our west. Either way, it's an interesting period for sure. The next 96 hours look relatively straightforward, but with the prime concern the evolution of the shortwave into the Central US. It's pretty obvious that Bank this chart of a Northern Hemispheric disruption at it's finest and see what the outcome is next Friday.
  2. I have been watching this Model Output Discussion the last few weeks, and have seen a lot of back and fourth's with the outputs. I am a firm believer that November-December 2010 was not a one off as we go forward in time. The cold periods we had after this 100 year event really did support that one day we might see something similar, and without a doubt I think most people expect that this is the case, of which I am one of them. Interestingly I just had a read through this, and pre that big cold spell was a lot of flooding. Which is not too dissimilar to the pattern we have had recently. Here's a chart for tomorrow night across the Nern Hemisphere. I note there are some minor differences between the two charts, but it's eerily similar (Although I'll stand corrected) but from the untrained eye - a weaker vortex, similar high pressure cell over Russia with zonality over the UK. The key difference for me is those Alaskan heights, buckling the jet and sending energy into Greenland. Something we don't really see until the 96th hour. The pattern this November is a bit flatter, but I think there will be a way synoptically that we will get a Greenland High. ECM is onto something that the GFS isn't. I can't understand why the struggle after 4-5 days. Anyway I look for the next couple of days, the building of heights into Greenland and the retrogression of the high across that area with WAA into Greenland, currently showing across the GFS, ECMWF and CFS models.
  3. Interesting jet profile too, need to get that into the more reliable timeframe.
  4. I suspect Dec 2019 will follow Dec 2009, Jan 2020 (Ala 2010 will be interestingly.) There's something in the background that the models are picking up.
  5. There's one thing that strikes me on the latest MO updates, and they've put one interesting caveat on it. "Through the second half of November and into December, confidence remains low." Either way, interesting pattern building next week. The jet seems to be pivoting under the high over Europe, and surely that's what you want? Be interested to see if the models can get to grips with that Afghan/Euro High.
  6. I believe this is the discussion from NOAA/NHC. "It is likely that cold upper-level temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and lead to the formation of a warm core, while Pablo continued strengthening over cool water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. Still, the current SSTs underneath Pablo are so far below those usually needed for tropical development, that Pablo must be incredibly efficient at extracting heat from the ocean surface below (as well as low-level surrounding air, probably)."
  7. Massive thunderous cell over London, with aircraft still flying through it. Literally.
  8. I'm curious does a stalling hurricane weaken due to lack of energy or if conditions are perfect. It will sit over that source all day long?
  9. A fair bit of activity now, huge system moved south of Cape Verde. 80% in next 5 days.
  10. Its travelling too fast for any mounts. I see they have one on the top of the flight deck panel. Impressive equipment that's for sure. Unreal footage. Best to watch it all.
  11. That's some pretty big balls! Unreal flying. https://www.dvidshub.net/video/706072/us-air-force-reserve-hurricane-hunters-fly-through-hurricane-dorian
  12. Yeah that is mental in itself. It's all possible, another GSM coming up.
  13. As a qualified pilot, that's some roller coaster. Imagine having to do it multiple times per day - presumably they get used to it. Wouldn't want to sit in the back of that aircraft!
  14. I've been doing some nights (finishing at 4am) and the daylight is really drawing to a close. But I seem to remember how quick winter went, and it was soon June 21st. This winter will probably not be any different, although I suspect we might be in for something more seasonable Nov-Jan, and I don't mean snow. But we are well overdue a wet and wild period.
  15. Just had lightning looking West of London light up the sky. Caught my eye.
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