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Frozen Britain

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  1. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.png first decent warming of the season where we want to see it at 30hpa will it be there consistently over the coming days and move into the more reliable timeframe?
  2. Cheers catch how about this coming week? Wednesday look good?
  3. Is snow forecast for this evening? I'm just north of Glasgow near Killearn clouding over just now radar showing the front to the west approaching
  4. Raining here at 3C what’s the forecast for this evening?
  5. Where are you in the Highlands Northern Strat? No snow here but first hard frost of the season
  6. Will this verify? Something to watch in the coming days and weeks to see if the trend continues....................
  7. First frost here this morning ...........the air is noticeably now much colder and has been the past couple of mornings Hopefully a much better winter than last year which was disappointing....very snowless compared to 2017/18
  8. I know we are only at the end of September and October just round the corner less than 2 days away but I wonder if chionomaniac would like to give us some early indications as to whether or not he thinks September this year is similar to back in 2009 or 2010? Would anyone perhaps less knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere and autumn patterns like to have a go at answering my question?
  9. As for the weather this week it is looking drier than last week - rain towards the end of the week, which is uncertain at the moment but Thursday and Friday look the wettest days
  10. Just to add to my return to the thread post - I remember chionomaniac mentioned back in 2009 why that winter was so good (and why we saw such eye watering synoptics so early on in the season which of course materialised) is because during the autumn that year the stratosphere underwent repeated minor warmings and never really dramatically cooled then in December everything changed from what everyone on here remembers the very mild windy and wet November to the change to the Big Freeze that was in the papers and such like I know we are only at the end of September and October just round the corner less than 2 days away but I wonder if chionomaniac would like to give us some early indications as to whether or not he thinks September this year is similar to back in 2009 or 2010? Would anyone perhaps less knowledgeable when it comes to the stratosphere and autumn patterns like to have a go at answering my question?
  11. Good to be back on the thread again after what seems like a long hiatus. I don't have high expectations for the coming winter - 2017/18 was good here and 2009/10 and December 2010 were the most memorable and 1995 too; last winter only had a couple of times where we had any decent snow. I think though there will be at least 1 spell of snow this winter however it pans out. Nothing really to get excited about just yet - certainly not until after the clocks change should we get excited about wintry synoptics IMO
  12. They must have been westQBO winters Mr data? Were they, or were they not? We are currently heading towards eQBO and that was filtered into the analogues as this is where we are headed for this coming winter. Perhaps I should have mentioned the QBO.
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