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duggyfresh

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    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by duggyfresh

    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    Welcome!

    The start of Glastonbury is still out of the reliable range at the moment - models having difficulty past day 6/7, so a fortnight away is out of the question! Current indications are just average summer weather, sunshine and showers - very much subject to change. I'd say there will be a good-ish idea on Glasto weather by the middle of next week.

    Thanks! Most of us on the Efestivals forum check on you about every 20 minutes or so.... You've got quite an audience at the moment. Fingers crossed for some good news next week then. Your expertise is very much appreciated and we're learning a lot about weather! 

    Glastonbury festival 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Zippy said:

    This. 

    It feels like every time I look at what it’s doing in Somerset over the last few weeks it’s been hammering down. Lots of rain across the South today again. 

    Im concerned for a mud trap tbh. The site does dry out quickly these days but there is a point of no return. A few years ago (can’t remember which, they all blend into one now) we had an almost completely dry weekend but all the rainfall in the two weeks prior meant foot deep, pull off your wellies, sticky mud in large areas of the site. Just makes getting about a massive pain. 

    I would want to see at least 4 warm days with no rain to harden up the surfaces before gates open, but I don’t think we’re going to get it. 

    Someone on the Efestivals forum lives in Pilton and has been reporting - most of the really bad heavy rain has missed them. Also the last 6 months have been very dry so the water table is very low, leaving a lot of room to sucl up the rain we're having now. Also general consensus is for things to improve after this week.

    Glastonbury festival 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On 03/06/2019 at 21:34, deadstillstanding said:

    Thanks J10.

    If you'll stand a noob question (and please excuse my total ignorance) but what are the key changes you're looking for from one NOAA chart to the next? My 'understanding' is limited to: closer isobars means windier, and; lower pressures on those isobars means less fine/settled weather. Or is this not an at a glance thing and you have to look at bags of other data?

    Was it yourself that did the Glastonbury 'tube' map? It's outstanding!!!!

    Glastonbury festival 2023

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by duggyfresh

    6 hours ago, Zippy said:

    Yeah. This is going to ruin ground conditions if it keeps up beyond next week imo.

    1AB71231-37AC-4C73-AD1E-55293D436E65.png

    Also Zippy, have s read of this article - gives hope that the pre-festival ground conditions could hold up. Unless things start going seriously unsettled.....

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.somersetlive.co.uk/whats-on/music-nightlife/glastonbury-festival-weather-met-office-2927481.amp

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