Ruzzi

Ross B The worst of the second batch missing me to the south just by the hair of a baw

Next band getting its act together for round 2

Proper squall, well highlighted on the radar too 20240212_203811.mp4 Managed to catch the thunder snow in this second video albeit the tail end of the longest thunder rumble known to man VID-20240212-WA0017.mp4 End result until the next batch moves in

-10c after a few inches of snow will do me fine

Not got a lot of time to look but I reckon an Amber will be dished out for tomorrow for the higher ground around the centre of the central belt and possibly extending north and south to cover the uncertainty of the track but the timing of it and the potential probably merits an amber

Wait til you see this John, you'll pish your frillies ..... the ice days are coming back Coatbridge ... -5C's in there for minima aswell plus 2 ice days over the next 4 days for you. MetO generally slightly over estimates temps too, especially the night time minima temps.

A lot more pink than I expected to see tbh

Warning area to the south of Scotland extended northwards Interesting Could give a good a fee cm before turning back to rain 20231230_104552.mp4

That chart you're showing is the warming taking place higher up in the strat .... and when you look at the mean windspeed up top for today/tomorrow, they are at the peak. The reduction in the zonal winds doesn't bottom out until the 6th of January, again bearing in mind this is up top. There's no way that the great reduction of zonal winds can imprint its effects on the trop on Sunday when it's still 1 week prior to the reduction in windspeed taking place. Following on from that, even when the windspeed reduction takes place up top, there is going to be a respective response time, with even a QTR taking some time to filter down to the trop. You can't have an instantaneous response, it just isn't possible. There needs to be a degree of time for the effects to filter down to the trop. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4987631

Nice to have healthy debate and conversation for once with no sniping and all views being considering and discussed. How it should be! @Mike Poole @Met4Cast @Harsh Climate

I think that was part of the debate on the strat thread to be honest, with having a -NAO already in place at the time of a SSW, whether this led to a compounding of the -NAO signature with a quicker downwelling with less atmospheric resistance. But a downwelling into the trop can never be guaranteed either with some SSW's in the past failing to downwell and imprint on the trop at all. In terms of what factors can speed up or hinder a trop response, the strat guys will be able to enlighten far better than I will but my understanding is that a QTR would be considered to be inside the 2 week mark and a more generic response being beyond the 2 week mark. There is no A+B=C when it comes to the strat though, it's a developing science in its absolute infancy which is where the interesting differing perspectives come from. There can't be any guarantees at this stage in terms of downwelling or what response we will achieve if any, whether or not we've had a previous Canadian warming. That's where the interest and intrigue comes from, more especially as we head into weeks 2/3/4 of January to see how the trop is effected by the reduction of zonal winds. As others have said though, regardless of not achieving a technical SSW, it doesn't look like we'll be far off in terms of zonal wind speed so there will still be a profound effect if it downwells successfully.

That chart you're showing is the warming taking place higher up in the strat .... and when you look at the mean windspeed up top for today/tomorrow, they are at the peak. The reduction in the zonal winds doesn't bottom out until the 6th of January, again bearing in mind this is up top. There's no way that the great reduction of zonal winds can imprint its effects on the trop on Sunday when it's still 1 week prior to the reduction in windspeed taking place. Following on from that, even when the windspeed reduction takes place up top, there is going to be a respective response time, with even a QTR taking some time to filter down to the trop. You can't have an instantaneous response, it just isn't possible. There needs to be a degree of time for the effects to filter down to the trop.

I love it when you talk dirty to me Im ready for a Feb 2021 re-run

Come on! You really can't be serious with this? Pessimism must be high to conjur up statements like this but unfortunately they just aren't true. For balance of presenting fact as opposed to dramatic headline grabbers .... here is yesterday's verified chart: Now compare that with a genuine pessimistic chart for this time of year, aka 2004: You can see the cause for pessimism diminishes somewhat.... and further to that, we have a more amplified MJO, phase 8/1, a pending significant weakening of the strat, and a host of other favourable teleconections which I won't go in to analyse given the great job that others do so well to explain to everyone and have been giving a running commentary on. Point being, there is plenty reason for optimism beyond the 7-10 range, its not your 2004 picture painted above. To keep the balance of realism for maybe newer members (as I suspect the seasoned will know that you threw a few statements out with no rationale, or indeed, maybe for the controversy) .... Here are 5 of the last 8 years for this same time of year: And here is the 3 remaining years of the last 8 years which have a slightly better viewing albeit, still don't show up the "abundant end of December northern blocking" Model fatigue can be a funny thing, but when you go back to looking for the basics, eg a roaring PV over Greenland, strong azores high or iberian high with a strongly positive NAO, or indeed strongly positive AO, a cold strat with zero warmings, an MJO in the COD and so on.... if you can tick all those boxes with no change in the forecast, only then will your statements hold credence. I envy the newer members this winter more than probably any before because the sheer amount of false factless based information being branded about this winter makes for a difficult read and gives a very poor foundation for learning. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4985691

Come on! You really can't be serious with this? Pessimism must be high to conjur up statements like this but unfortunately they just aren't true. For balance of presenting fact as opposed to dramatic headline grabbers .... here is yesterday's verified chart: Now compare that with a genuine pessimistic chart for this time of year, aka 2004: You can see the cause for pessimism diminishes somewhat.... and further to that, we have a more amplified MJO, phase 8/1, a pending significant weakening of the strat, and a host of other favourable teleconections which I won't go in to analyse given the great job that others do so well to explain to everyone and have been giving a running commentary on. Point being, there is plenty reason for optimism beyond the 7-10 range, its not your 2004 picture painted above. To keep the balance of realism for maybe newer members (as I suspect the seasoned will know that you threw a few statements out with no rationale, or indeed, maybe for the controversy) .... Here are 5 of the last 8 years for this same time of year: And here is the 3 remaining years of the last 8 years which have a slightly better viewing albeit, still don't show up the "abundant end of December northern blocking" Model fatigue can be a funny thing, but when you go back to looking for the basics, eg a roaring PV over Greenland, strong azores high or iberian high with a strongly positive NAO, or indeed strongly positive AO, a cold strat with zero warmings, an MJO in the COD and so on.... if you can tick all those boxes with no change in the forecast, only then will your statements hold credence. I envy the newer members this winter more than probably any before because the sheer amount of false factless based information being branded about this winter makes for a difficult read and gives a very poor foundation for learning.