weather12

This is a debate about netweather's shades of 1976 summer forecast, I will continue to give my input into the subject. Agreed... the radiators were on last night, it was really cold! Didnt think the radiators would be on near mid June!

Well you are very misguided then arent you... member john holmes has seen proof of my business and credentials.

And why would that apply to me as well? U know nothing about my credentials. I've posted a quick 8 day forecast and yet you still complain. You cant please everyone! There is a reason why I stick with shorter time frames and that's because they're more reliable than guess work lrf's! Thanks. I use several different models, inclusive of GFS. As for my thoughts on the next few months, who knows (nobody does!). Saying that, I would think we'll get some periods of settled, very warm or locally hot weather at times in July/August, but that's based on the fact it's Summer and you would kind of expect that to happen at some point :-p

I wont be posting a long range forecast as it's not possible to do so.

Again, try reading my previous posts and you'll work it all out (i live in hope!).

Agreed.

But again, that's nothing to do with me is it... I've had private message after private message asking me what I do, which department I work in etc etc. There have been constant messages on this topic asking me to write forecasts and explain myself. I cannot control what others write. As i said before, this isnt about me and I never wanted it to be about me... yet I seem to get the blame because you're all writing questions with an intention for me to respond. Fair play to Netweather if they want to issue a lrf and all credit to them, but that doesnt change the fact I dont agree with it. And again, I dont know where this 'pro forecaster' term has come from as I never wrote it!

Sorry, i wrote it in MS Word and copied/pasted it into the text box here. Dont think changing the text size helped either :-s And again I would like to point out... this thread is not about me, what I do for a living, what I eat for breakfast etc... it is about long range forecasting.

Hampshire.

For all my adoring fans! Friday 10th June 2011 Area of low atmospheric pressure centered between the UKand Iceland. A showery day for most parts, more akin to April than early Summer! Most prolific and widespread showers forcentral and northern areas of the country, although a batch of widespread,heavy showers are likely to affect south wales and the south west of England too,perhaps merging into a longer spell of rain for some. Temperatures ranging from 11-15C in thenorth, 15-18C in the south. Saturday 11th June 2011 High pressure tries to ridge in from the south, failingto do so and transferring into France / Germany instead. Showers will again feature in the forecast,working from west to east across the country. Again the most prolific and widespread cells probably across Wales,Midlands, East Anglia northwards. That's not to say a few showers wont feature in southern areas too. Temperatures ranging from 11-15C in the north, 15-18C in the south. Sunday 12th June 2011 New area of low atmospheric pressure steaming in fromthe Atlantic. Increasingly breezy orwindy for most, with moderate / heavy rain tracking its way into western areasinitially, transferring to the east as the day progresses. Rain perhaps turning a little less heavy andmore fragmented as it reaches the east. Variabletemperatures, from 10-13C in the rain. 14-17C in any brightness. Monday 13th June 2011 Low pressure moves away to affect Scotland and the farnorth. Higher pressure begins to buildin from the south. Still a few showersdotted about, although a real improvement for many, with some spells ofsunshine and drier conditions. Cloudyskies and more persistent rain /showers could still affect Scotland and the far north,along with stronger winds. 11-15C in thenorth, 16-19C in the south. Tuesday 14th June 2011 High pressure hangs on for another day, althoughgradually being squeezed out by another Atlantic weather system. Predominantly dry for most, with some brightor sunny intervals. Again, just a fewshowers dotted around, most likely to affect northern areas of the country. 12-16C in the north, 16-20C in the south. Wed-Fri 15th / 17th June 2011 Low pressure continues to work in from theAtlantic. No sign of Summer, with a mixtureof rain/showers at times. Some drier andbrighter interludes between falls of rain, especially in the south. Temperatures not too far from the average forthe time of year, anywhere from 14-18C in the north, 15-20C in the south. Let the criticism begin! :-p

Sorry, but the mods are telling me not to do so, looks like I wont be issuing any!

Fat chance and if I was, i'd just create another username... So here's my dilema... I'm being told to shut up by people on here... Yet, im getting private messages to tell me to write forecasts and post them in other threads... I'm either going to shouted at, or i'm going to be shouted at! I never wanted this thread to be about myself, I think it's the others who are to blame, not me. I want to discuss lrf and this isnt about my forecasting skills. That doesnt mean to say I wont honor a weather forecast later or tomorrow.

And your point is?

Good post... Where are these prolonged hot spells in the models? I cant see anything yet. give it a rest! and people say im forceful on here!

But this a forum... i thought the idea of a forum is for the purpose of discussion?

Thanks for the compliment Winter Monsoon! Your posting is littered with flaws... First up, I never mentioned I am a pro forecaster.. those are your words not mine. I have said I will issue a forecast, possibly later today or whenever I have some free time to look at all the relevant models. I cant make it any clearer than it already is. If you change a long range forecast every few weeks, it cannot be labelled as such and is nothing more than a short/medium term forecast. I think you've nailed it on the head there... a long range forecast is exactly that... guess work! I completely agree with you there... but unfortunately the public will always gather everyone under the same roof. That is a bad thing.

Of course it does... Though I was answering in reference to his example. Putting such forecasts out in the public eye is a dangerous thing and their credibility suffered as a result.

Not atm, I will probably write something later this evening if that's ok.

I completely disagree with you... The METO forecast a BBQ summer that went spectacularly wrong... of course it reflected badly on meteorologists and meteorology in general! So you're telling me it gave meterorologists good credibility in the public eye? Lets hope he does!

Again, please dont make an assumption im against lrfs... i've always said, there's nothing wrong with experimentation / investigation into the area... just dont release it to the masses otherwise it gives the rest of us meteorologists a bad name! Of course... though there is a difference between being paid to do a forecast and writing a forecast for a message board.

Excellent, we'll go head to head :-p

As i have said before in previous posts... there is nothing wrong with experimentation and investigation into lrf, but keep it in the background out of general public view. If we dont fully understand it, then why present it to the masses? It gives meteorologists a bad name when such headlines as 'shades of 1976' goes completely tits up. Read my previous posts please before making assumptions. Thanks for that, I will no doubt be posting there soon!

I wouldnt need to keep repeating myself if other people stopped posting the same rubbish that they dont understand... i'm only answering those that have already posted.

I think we're talking about seasonal forecasts of 30/60/90 days ahead, rather than a week or so.

But you cant label a forecast as 'long range', if you're changing it every 2/3 weeks because it's completely wrong. Surely i cant make it any clearer than that?