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Chris K

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Everything posted by Chris K

  1. Chris K
    Indeed...This is when a forum such as this is very handy because I can read some of the good details people post to make a better judgement. If there is a good chance of thunderstorms during Friday then it would be too exposed and dangerous up there to take the risk. We would be like walking lightning rods....
  2. Chris K
    I am meant to be climbing Snowdon Friday afternoon....hmmmmm I will be keeping an eye on these outputs very closely....
  3. Chris K
    I wish my office was air conditioned...the smart designers put in glass ceilings through the central atrium, so it turns the whole complex into a giant greenhouse that slow cooks the 1500 odd people per building. The ventilation system is outdated, so rather than let a cool breeze go through the vents, it brings in more hot air instead.... Don't get me started on the lack of desk fans - people start foaming at the mouth if they see one in sight during heat-waves. I do enjoy summer weather...I would just rather be a slob outside with a cold beer in t-shirt and shorts instead of turning myself into a suited-up sweaty wreck after only climbing a few sets of stairs... At least for people with jobs working outside, it is more acceptable to have sweat patches compared to us office workers.
  4. Chris K
    I wish.... If those charts were showing the highest CAPE etc etc over Scotland and Ireland right now, then I'd be more optimistic. It would allow any shifts SE to cover most of the UK then rather than a France/Belgium storm fest with us convective fans here gritting teeth under the leftover filth from dead MCS'
  5. Chris K
    Yesssss that was when me and some friends took the opportunity to have a long weekend camping in the unusual heat. We were sat on top the sand dunes at Oxwich Bay on the Gower Peninsula in the early hours and we kept going "Guys...it's the 1st of October!!!" The fact we could lie under the stars with clear skies and warmth at that time of year was amazing.
  6. Chris K
    A bit of a wet night and unfortunately the parade at our town carnival got off to a wet start this morning. Starting to brighten up now though and hopefully an improving story for the rest of the day One positive is the rain does wonders at dampening the pollen. Finally a bit of a break..
  7. Chris K
    That is Bristol's version of an MCS
  8. Chris K
    The most potent showers now increasingly becoming more confined to Southern and South-Eastern counties with an emphasis towards the South Coast as we continue through the afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a few cells elsewhere but I think the few rumbles I had this morning is my lot for today!
  9. Chris K
    Well thunder has died down now, but haven't had it this early for a while. Bodes well for others later more S and E of me I feel
  10. Chris K
    Yep passing to my NW by a few miles. Loud claps of thunder with heavy rain here at the moment! Skies are pretty plain grey and boring though! Haha
  11. Chris K
    Yep! The speed I jumped out of bed to check for rolling bins was unprecedented. Looks like a cell over to my West over the river Severn.
  12. Chris K
    Good morning all. Just got instantly woken up by thunder!
  13. Chris K
    Apart from the atrocious hay fever at the moment, this weather is great. Although I do like the odd thunderstorm to break it up a bit Humidity isn't too high either, so it is warm, but not where I have to sit in work sweating and sticking to the seats. We have also had a bit more cloud today, but not enough to spoil things.
  14. Chris K
    So I have read a few posts recently stating that whatever pattern sets up late June, more than likely becomes the dominant pattern for the majority of the Summer. For example, if the Jet is in a certain position late June/early July it supposedly often locks into roughly the same position until beginning of Autumn. Is there any truth in this? Or is selective memory a factor here? I can understand the N hemisphere having a sort of 'Summer mode' but surely there are too many factors that come into play for things to 'set up' in this way?
  15. Chris K
    Sort of yes. Kent Clippers are usually associated with continental storms drifiting more NE than North. That is nothing new, but the lack of the bigger storms making it from Spain/France staying on a more Northerly track to the UK has been noticeable. I find we rely more on frontal incursions from our W these days, particularly weather fronts that seem to want to race through earlier than peak daytime heating all too often... If you get a stalling front or surface trough meeting a humid, unstable airmass however..that can get interesting if all the right factors are in place!
  16. Chris K
    Ok well to be honest I do not have the scientific knowledge to really say for certain, however my assumption has always been the pattern of the Jet Stream as one major factor. For example, in recent Summers it has been often flowing over or towards the South of the UK more often, with a tilt not favoured for the classic "spanish plume" storms to head on a favourable track to hit the UK. These storms would often form within a thundery low that developed from the heat of the day over Spain. The reason why those storms are often seen during the night, is because they form over the continent (typically the Bay of Biscay regions) during the afternoon, for them to then North and reach Southern UK by late evening. The problem we are seeing, is that we have been relying on Low Pressure formed along the Jet Stream for it then to sit to our SW/W and draw up humid airmasses from the continent. Weather fronts then destabalise this as it pushes in and triggers storms along these boundaries. Nothing wrong with that, as they can develop some great storms. However, if the jet was more North of the UK, I think it would allow these thundery systems over the continent to properly head North now and again, rather than get pushed on a more NE track all the time.
  17. Chris K
    Naturally it will quieten down to coincide with limited/no convective potential. The risk of any thundery showers or storms looks like being relatively low for the foreseeable. There may be a chance mid week the more NE you are such as N Ireland, Scotland, NE England, however this still looks weak at present. Ideally we want a cut off low to our SW and for the High to move East. However, the trend in the operational model runs at the moment is for the High to sit out West with a cooler flow eventually coming down from the NE. This could still provide something surface based if any showers get going, but it is too far out to class as reliable. It would also depend how close the High is to the UK. I think we will need to wait and see what it ends up doing later this coming week.
  18. Chris K
    Estofex forecast out for today - keeps the risk relatively low for parts of Wales, W/SW, Central and Southern England, with no mention of the UK in the text. http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2014061506_201406140014_1_stormforecast.xml
  19. Chris K
    Think I have had my lot for tonight..an unexpected bonus Met office shows some more showers tomorrow afternoon for some areas, although at the moment they do not look like being so potent....still something to keep an eye on anyway... Enjoy if you are in the firing line, it looks to be developing nicely in the South.
  20. Chris K
    I cannot believe I've seen this much lightning with a high pressure so close by. I understand why but for me this is a first!! Will try get some pictures if I can but I'm far away looking at the stuff going on over Stroud.
  21. Chris K
    So humid out there. I can see lightning again to my Northeast. That cell must be slow moving for sure...
  22. Chris K
    Just got home. Was having a meal up at slimbridge near Gloucester. Went very dark and had a cracking little thunderstorm. Very slow moving. Didn't expect that at all today!
  23. Chris K
    Aimed at the original thread title, I assume you are taking local geography and so on into account? And please say you haven't compared it to a temp reading from the car? The problem with temperatures is that it is such a specific detail to forecast and is affected by so many 'local' factors, as well as the overall weather features. With all this combined I would have thought they can only go by a modelled & predicted average for an area. Their forecasts for me have been pretty close to be honest. Although if the sun is out this time of year, I would also normally add 1-2 degrees and then it is usually close enough. Bit odd that you are deviating more than that, but there are so many tiny complexities, just like everything else to do with the weather & meteorology.
  24. Chris K
    Well Met office show heavy showers for my area later this afternoon...but I think we will likely be the breeding ground to make storm babies head NE into the area marked level 1 by Estofex. Who knows..I might be lucky if any develop to my SW!
  25. Chris K
    Wow...just wow...I cannot watch any more...I just want to jump in the screen to be there and witness it first hand.
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