Gordon Webb

I don't like storms at all and 1 rumble is too many for me but I'm confident nobody here sets out to see homes or property destroyed it's probably the power of the storms that excites them and as for damage by strikes or hail or flooding it's something not really in their control

OK I won't mention that particular topic again

thanks to both with answers

may have been taken over by the french and will only issue warnings to Britain if they get access to fishing grounds if it's not that then i don't know

I don't think I made my question clear , sorry about that IR ? apologies if this is a simple answer

excuse me what is this representing ?

well thankfully this is the last day of this intensity

agree 100%

think somebody there must be on something , i can understand the first half of this week this heat was well trailed and the consequences was well trailed to but after today things cool down and become uncertain to have this put out not only seems over the top but unusually bold for the met who generally dont issue warnings until the first bolt is seen

quite agree lets hope not many serious injuries from this

probably searching for the person who posted warnings for up to 5 days out

don't tell me a Dinghy got lost on it's way to Dover

quote from convective weather in case it was missed for our friends in the south During the evening hours, a band or cluster of thunderstorms over northern France will begin to drift north across the English Channel, potentially affecting the Channel Islands for a time - it is unclear where these storms will survive the crossing, but the vast majority of model guidance is in agreement that they will decay fairly rapidly after leaving the coast, with lightning activity tending to hug the French coastline to the east. Nonetheless, a few elevated thunderstorms may be possible across S / SE England overnight, and perhaps at the end of the night close to the East Anglia coast.

Personally I'd pay no attention to these warnings all the way out to Monday from the Met Office , basically saying some might get showers but most won't , well judging by model output I could say that and I'd probably be right at least once , this seems to be an exercise in covering their backsides in case things go pear shaped , also doesn't ring with their forecasts edit - seems their forecasts do mention this a little but I still think they're overdoing it

looks like your just on the edge as with all other forecasts today

yep met just hammered the last of the nails in SE coffin

surprised Estofex Not showing anything , really must not think much of Wales

well Dan from convective weather forecasts something like that will happen moving west across Wales , so no real surprise at that

bear in mind these are accumulated amounts up until those days not the days themselves

yep seems about right , only got them yesterday because they tracked NE but today back to tracking NW then WNW

well not sure everyone will agree but THANK GOD for that

well maybe Birmingham West as the steering winds change during the evening

sorry normally add that Convective Weather CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 12 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 13 Aug 2020 ISSUED 07:05 UTC Wed 12 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan ... SUMMARY ... Elevated thunderstorms ongoing across NE Scotland and the Northern Isles during Wednesday morning Aside from isolated elevated thunderstorms, scattered surface-based thunderstorms will develop in parts of England, Wales and Scotland from mid-afternoon, primarily near high ground and convergence boundaries Thunderstorms will become increasingly numerous through the evening hours, merging into a complex from the Midlands into Wales Large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding are all possible where storms occur Other thunderstorms over France may push into S / SE England overnight, but confidence is low There could be a relative minima in activity across some southern coastal counties, but have retained the SLGT for the overnight risk ... DISCUSSION ... A marked shortwave will be driving a cluster of elevated thunderstorms across NE Scotland first thing on Wednesday morning, this will continue to lift northwards across Orkney and perhaps Shetland with time. Elsewhere, a few isolated elevated showers/weak thunderstorms may be possible across parts of England and Wales, especially the Midlands / SW England, driven by weak forcing aloft and rooted above a marked elevated mixed layer (EML). This EML will act as a cap, as strong surface heating through the day builds significant CAPE in the order of 1,000-2,500 J/kg - values rarely seen in the UK. In fact a climatology of UK CAPE 2002-2012 suggests the highest observed in this period was locally >3,000 J/kg during the heatwave of August 2003, once again noting how remarkable this current heatwave is. Forecast soundings suggest temperatures in the low 30s Celsius will be necessary to break through the cap, and so true surface-based convection seems unlikely until early/mid afternoon at the earliest; however, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning, which may subsequently become rooted within the boundary layer during the afternoon. Convergence zones and topography will be key for initial initiation of surface-based convection, and so high ground of SW Scotland, Cumbria, Pennines, North York Moors, Cambrian mountains and low-level convergence zones along the M4/M40 corridors for example will be the key areas. Once convection manages to break through the cap, explosive development is expected with cloud tops to 40,000ft (ELTs -55C). Shear is a little meagre, 10-15kts, and so likely to lead to downbursts and cold pools, which in turn will lead to daughter cells developing nearby. Damaging gusts of up to 50-60mph will be possible associated with downbursts, and the magnitude of CAPE and mid-level lapse rates suggests large hail 3-4cm, locally 5cm, in diameter is possible. During the evening, a shortwave will approach from France into southern England, and this may also aid in eroding the cap and allowing numerous thunderstorms to develop near convergence boundaries / topographic forcing / outflow boundaries. 700mb steering flow would suggest storm motion will be 10-15mph to the NW initially, turning increasingly to the WNW and 20-25mph as the evening progresses and the flow aloft backs and strengthens. Thunderstorms may grow upscale into a larger complex as they track westwards across Wales during the evening, and out across the southern Irish Sea / Celtic Sea while lightning activity will probably weaken as it moves into E / SE Ireland. During the evening hours, a band or cluster of thunderstorms over northern France will begin to drift north across the English Channel, potentially affecting the Channel Islands for a time - it is unclear where these storms will survive the crossing, but the vast majority of model guidance is in agreement that they will decay fairly rapidly after leaving the coast, with lightning activity tending to hug the French coastline to the east. Nonetheless, a few elevated thunderstorms may be possible across S / SE England overnight, and perhaps at the end of the night close to the East Anglia coast. edit - just outside moderate and direction of storms does not favor me either but for those Birmingham westwards again look like getting clobbered especially as motion turns more W during evening

isn't there enough discord on these forums already