Gordon Webb

Metcheck forecasting a largely cloudy day , well that's not going to do much for temps away from E/SE where 23-25c possible in best of sunshine with 19-21c elsewhere considering temps are the main trigger today

I'm not overly worried after reading PJB's outlook it seems west and east of me in the middle will probably be worse but i'll wait and see

Yep East And West Looks good for tomorrow , as for you on the S coast to say your have been shafted this week is a bit of an understatement now for tomorrow it's SW/W and SE/E and not so bad in the middle

edit - had trouble with that thanks

Convective Outlook / Forecast - Sunday 16th August 2020 Valid 06:00 BST to 23:00 BST Sunday Risk Zone 1 - Southern Counties of England & Channel Islands Risk Zone 2 - Central and Southern Parts of England (Away from the South Coast, Eastern England, London, Lincs, Midlands, Central, Southern & Eastern Wales. Headline Upper level low with surface inflexion will drift NE towards to the UK to lie over the English Channel by Late Sunday. Associated Trough will move North during tomorrow morning with risk of Elevated convection and some Heavy Showers. As trough moves inland it will decay and insolation will take over. Surface based storms will develop during the afternoon in response to heating with a low risk of organisation and severe storms developing over Eastern England. Detail Large upper level low is very well placed on Airmass imagery , with a PVA max located in the Central Bay of Biscay. This PVA Max has engaged some higher 850mb air over parts of Biscay and has allowed for Elevated Thunderstorms to to erupt as the airmass was lifted north from Iberia. This trough development will move NE towards the English Channel tonight and then move close to the South coast during Sunday Morning. Rain / Showers/ Thunderstorms are likely to push towards the Channel Islands early on Sunday and then slowly move north, but likely to decay as they move north across the Channel during the diurnal minima. However saying that I have allowed for a risk of Showers / Thunderstorms from this trough to move into Southern Counties of England during Sunday. The trough is finally however likely to push north the rather complex airmass that has sat over Southern England for the past few days with only limited insolation but high PWAT Content. This higher theta-W air and high Moisture is likely to be pushed North during tomorrow to replaced by somewhat more buoyant air arriving from the South. During the afternoon, Sunshine will develop more widely over England and parts of Wales, and there will be an increase in low level thermal advection from 850mb to the surface as a tongue of warmer air from the continent moves into the SE and East Anglia. At the same time as this the upper level low will move north and this will lower 300-500mb temperatures across much of England & Wales,. The Net effect is to steepen Lapse rates significantly during the afternoon and forecast ascents are much more unstable compared with those of today with several hundred j/kg of CAPE perhaps up to 1,500 k/kg of CAPE over parts of England especially Eastern England. In addition to this improved thermodynamic environment we will also see an increase in Deep Layer Shear aloft as the upper trough approaches with an increase in winds especially at 300-500mbs over Eastern England and East Anglia. Therefore Any Thunderstorms which develop here have the potential for some modest organisation and have the potential to produce moderate gusts and perhaps hail. Given the PV aloft and the increased dry air at the 400-700mb level I see a much improved prospect of Lightning vs Sunday across these parts. High PWAT content likely to remain esp across parts of Eastern England and here again totals from rain / thunderstorms will be quite large. (though cells not expected to be as slow moving as recently) During the afternoon several convergence zones and trough axis are likely to develop. One close to the coasts of Eastern England, One over SW England, One over SE Wales and parts of Western England. These will be the focus for the development of Heavy Showers and Thunderstorms given the expected increase in Temperatures and Sunshine. Storms once developed will move NW on the SE steering flow. Storms have the potential for Organisation and perhaps to become marginally intense over Eastern England during the late afternoon & evening. Fig 1 - COnvective Outlook Sunday 16th August Fig 2 - Airmass Imagery 15th Evening Interpretation Issued Paul Blight 20:38 15th August.

sb based storms were also looking not too bad for last 2 days for certain places which really didn't pan out , this is far from clear and I see you didn't mention the ICON but I understand why the only water you get from that is the tears of those in the SE looking at it

the 06z shows even less rain

with me been a hater of them that's a compliment I could do without LOL but yeah it's true happened in June and again week just gone

hmm with been a front could a lot of cloud be a possibility too

not exactly the usual places much more focus on East Anglia / East Midlands for heaviest rainfall taking that run at face value also ties in with where met office expect the heaviest rainfall to be again taking their warning at face value but I've see these before then on the day the reality doesn't match up , for those wanting storms best to approach tomorrow with expect nothing and hope for something , as for me I hope for nothing and expect something

well they aren't going very far very fast

met office have updated there warnings removing parts of the midlands for today and having storms and showers moving north tomorrow with higher chance of severe storms more especially Eastern England and later East Midlands into afternoon and evening for tomorrow and this contradictory warning for Monday which reads thus Thunderstorms are expected to develop in many areas of England and Wales during Monday. Some slow moving thunderstorms may form during the afternoon before these largely die out through the evening. Many locations within the warning area will miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they do occur 30-40 mm may fall in an hour with 50-70 mm possible in 3 hours. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by large hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds this is tomorrows Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to move north across England and Wales during Sunday. Some locations within the warning area may miss the thunderstorms altogether, but where they do occur 30-40 mm of rain may fall in an hour with the potential for 60-90 mm in a few hours. The most likely areas to see the larger totals are in the East of England and then the East Midlands during the afternoon and evening. The thunderstorms may be accompanied by large hail, frequent lightning and gusty winds. the only possibility for higher rainfall totals maybe slightly warmer temps are expected further East tomorrow but I suggest they really don't know but given uncertainty even at short range can these warnings really be taken at face value considering their warnings from yesterday and today not really panning out and most probably tomorrow and Monday been the same as well

HA HA

rain may have gone but grey skies remain and temps at 19C but that was that 8am and the storms/showers in s/se don't seem to be going very far very fast

now down to 18c think the 27c that was forecast now out of reach , sky have brightened but not sunny but I'm not bothered as last few days were unbearable

ah ok

ah didn't know the figures , yeah well justified in that case then

that rain just got here about 10mins ago been loitering around south for about 3 hours

what's it taken 4 days of sunny weather in the SE

19c here has risen 1c since this morning

this was a day I was hoping to relax a little but no this elevated stuff is coming to ruin my day , thought focus was meant to be further south

same here , yesterday was the last of the scorching days and today the last of the just about 30c days after this it's more mid 20's at best , also hoping that stuff near Luton doesn't make it here

in the detail it specifies Southern England and along with what Paul Sherman say looks more focused further south today and the main threat I think today may be flooding

almighty cheers ring out across the south of the M4 for tomorrow and the met office is forecasting thundery rain for the south tomorrow too

suspected cause was a landslip but there not confirming a link with the weather and 1 death believe to be driver and fears of another