Summer Sun

There is still ample time for some where to get 20c yet where only in mid September remember next weekend gets very close in the south

Sunny in south Windier north Issued: 0530hrs Sunday 16th September 2012 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Fine through the Mediterranean and southern Europe, but more unsettled and windy to north Sunday A fine morning through Spain and Portugal with good spells of sunshine. More fair weather over France, although some morning mist and fog patches are likely here too. The dry and fine weather extends through the Low Countries and Germany as well as into Poland. Austria and Switzerland will have plenty of sunshine too, this extending to northern Italy. Central and southern Italy will have more cloud and some rain. The rain could be heavy over northern and western Greece. Turkey should be dry with sunny spells throughout. Cloud and some rain in Bulgaria but fine across Romania. Breezy with sunny spells in Denmark. There could be some sunshine in the Baltic States and Finland should be dry too. More sunshine across Sweden and southern Norway, although cloud and rain affecting western Norway where it will be windy too. Monday Plenty of sunshine through Spain and Portugal today, and it should be dry too. More sunshine to come across most of France, although there will be some cloud and patchy rain in the far north. Cloudy with some showers across the Low Countries and the northern half of Germany and Poland. Brighter to the south with good spells of sunshine in Switzerland and Austria. The Balearics and Italy should have a fine day with lots of sunshine to come here. Some cloud and showers across northern Greece, but fine to the south and sunny too. More sunshine for much of Turkey, although showers are likely inland. A fair day in the Baltic States, but cloud and wind as well as rain in Finland. More cloud and rain across Sweden, but brighter weather with some heavy showers follows to Norway. Denmark should be bright with sunny spells. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

An Unsettled Week Ahead Rain and Showers http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120916

The ensemble for tonight shows a dip in temps from the 17th to 19th then a slow rise again Further north it looks cooler

Hints of autumn Rain central Mediterranean Issued: 0530hrs Saturday 15th September 2012 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Rain for Italy & Greece, fine western Mediterranean Saturday A fair day through Spain and Portugal with more spells of sunshine here. Further sunshine over France and dry here as well. More sunshine in the Low Countries and Germany, as well as Poland. Bright and dry across Austria, Hungary and Switzerland. Low pressure over southern Italy brings some showers and outbreaks of rain across central and southern Italy, but plenty of sunshine to the north. Some showers affecting western Greece, but drier in the east. Turkey is going to be fine and dry with more sunshine to come here throughout. Further north a strong westerly flow through Scandinavia will bring periods of rain and showers here. Most of the rain over Norway, but for Sweden and Denmark the day should be dry and breezy with sunny spells. More rain and strong winds over the Baltic States and Finland. Sunday A fine morning through Spain and Portugal with good spells of sunshine. More fair weather over France, although some morning mist and fog patches are likely here too. The dry and fine weather extends through the Low Countries and Germany as well as into Poland. Austria and Switzerland will have plenty of sunshine too, this extending to northern Italy. Central and southern Italy will have more cloud and some rain. The rain could be heavy over northern and western Greece. Turkey should be dry with sunny spells throughout. Cloud and some rain in Bulgaria but fine across Romania. Breezy with sunny spells in Denmark. There could be some sunshine in the Baltic States and Finland should be dry too. More sunshine across Sweden and southern Norway, although cloud and rain affecting western Norway where it will be windy too http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20120915

Rain to north Fairer south http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120915

With regards to the Joe B tweet posted a few post's above Matt Hugo has tweeted the following Ian Fergusson †Hmmm.. “@BigJoe: UK beware. a heck of a winter is lurking. Water temps resemble what's going on around Alaska Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 @fergieweather - Hmmm exactly. He's been wrong more than right in my opinion.

Not a bad 12z tonight with high pressure close by to the south it will be chilly at times for most but all in all a fairly dry run from GFS tonight certainly for those in the east UKMO also has high pressure edging in by the end of the week It will be chilly though with a northwesterly wind for a time this coming week

This is what Joe said a few years back most of it is for the US but I'm certain he said something similar for Europe

A lovely day here in NE England not a cloud in the sky no wind and a max of 18c is forecast Currently - 13.7°C Wind - 0.0mph Pressure - 1012.8hPa steady

Quite an unsettled end to ECM tonight

Well living that far south you have to be prepared for mild winters at times, its the same for those in Scotland who have to be prepared for heavy snow fall at some point during winter

The swear filter keeps turning bastar-di to laminate floori

A few more longer range models Rainfall looks fairly close to average Temperature Looks mostly average except Scotland and Northern Ireland which is below normal at this stage Norwegian Met Office Predicted temperature deviations from the period of October 2012 to December 2012 Temperature outlook for the period October to December 2012 are about 1°C above normal for the northern part of Nordland, Troms and Finnmark. For the rest of Nordland, Trøndelag and the northern most part of both Western and Eastern, suggests forecasted an average of 0.5-1°C above normal. For the southern part of the country are notified at approximately 0.5°C over. Normal as we compare with the average temperature for the period 1961-1990. This period was somewhat cooler than the past few decades have been. The Beijing Climate Center is going for a warmer than normal winter But its also showing it to be wetter than normal in some areas

Has GP (Stewart Rampling) actually said this? Snow on the way… but not till Christmas A SNOWY sub-zero Christmas has been predicted for Ireland, as sun worshippers look 
forward to more sunshine this weekend. Temperatures are set to reach 20C today, but Netweather forecaster Stewart Rampling has said snow, ice and sub-zero 
temperatures are all on the way this December. He forecasted chilly spells in October due to high pressure drawing cold polar air and cutting off warm westerly winds – the pattern which can cause winter freezes. Netweather also predicts October’s rainfall will be down by close to 30 per cent. However, November will be up to 20 per cent wetter for most of the country. “November’s rainfall is forecast to be above average for the south,†said Rampling. Meanwhile, suggestions that parts of the country would be hit by 100kph winds today were rejected by weather experts Met Eireann. Met Eireann meteorologist John Eagleton said yesterday: “There is no indication at the moment of gale force winds tomorrow.†The top Irish forecaster also said people can look forward sunshine and dry weather this Saturday, with temperatures in the high teens. http://thestar.ie/star/snow-on-the-way-but-not-till-christmas/

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Sep 2012 to Saturday 13 Oct 2012: Indications are that the end of September and the beginning of October are likely to be characterised by mainly unsettled conditions across much of the UK, with outbreaks of rain affecting many parts. This rain is likely to be heaviest and most persistent across western areas of the UK, with the east and southeast most favoured to see some drier, brighter interludes. Winds may also be strong at times, particularly across the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be below or well below average, especially by day. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Sep 2012 to Friday 28 Sep 2012: Largely unsettled throughout. At first, generally showery, then the latter part of next week will see some longer outbreaks of occasionally heavy rain, particularly for northern and central parts of the UK. Strong winds at times, especially in the northwest. The south should see the best of the drier conditions. Feeling cool in wind and rain, but temperatures close to normal in sunny spells. Next weekend turning generally unsettled and rather cold, with showers of longer spells of rain for most parts, and only brief drier interludes. Generally breezy, and temperatures widely below average, though closer to normal in the southeast. Thereafter, a generally cool and unsettled spell with showers or longer spells of rain. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

No CFS V1 is going for an average winter overall Rainfall is below average for parts of Scotland and average else where CFS V2 is going for a warm winter for much of Europe including the parts of the UK CFS V2 is also going for a wetter than average winter So in summary CFS V1 is going for an average winter overall both temperature and rainfall wise the exception been Scotland which is below average for rainfall CFS V2 is going for a mild and slightly wetter than average winter from the midlands south and average temperatures, the north has average temperatures and slightly wetter than average in places

Rain in north Breezy & cool http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120914

These are the maxes GFS is showing for Tuesday night / Early Wednesday

Latest Met Office long range charts suggest a 60% chance of below average temps this winter and a 20% chance of above normal Rainfall looks fairly average nation wide, only Northwest Scotland and Northern Ireland are shown to be below normal (40% chance) Chances of near normal sea level pressure is 40% below normal is 20%

Rain across Italy Strong French Mistral Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 12th September 2012 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Unsettled western Europe Today Rain spreads down across England. Lots of heavy showers are forecast across France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark into western and southern parts of Germany. Eastern Germany may remain fair and dry for most of the day. Windy but dry across southern France. Cold across Norway today with sunny spells. Sunny too across Sweden. An area of heavy rain and heavy showers are expected from Finland into the Baltic States through Poland, Austria into northern Italy and the Alps. Dry across most of Russia, Belarus into the Ukraine, the Czech Republic, the former Yugoslavia, Hungary, Greece, Romania and Turkey. Lots of warm sunshine to com across Italy westward into Corsica, Sardinia, Spain and Portugal. A strong mistral will be blowing across southern France Thursday Mainly dry with sunny spells across England today. Rain and showers are forecast across France. Mainly dry across Belgium and The Netherlands with showers across Denmark and across western and southern Germany. Eastern Germany looks fair and dry. Cloudy with rain across France but dry in the far south with that strong mistral continuing. An area of rain will stretch from the Baltic States into Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria, the former Yugoslavia intoItaly. Rain to come across Corsica and Sardinia with showers around the Balearics. Cloudy but dry across Finland with sunny skies across Norway and Sweden but quite chilly. Lots of dry, sunny weather to come across Russia, the Ukraine, Romania into Bulgaria and Turkey with a risk of a few sharp showers across Greece. Lots of fine, sunny weather is expected across Spain and Portugal. http://www.weatheron...EuropeanSummary

The live webcam for Ben Nevis is now working, you can't see much at the moment due to low cloud

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Sep 2012 to Thursday 11 Oct 2012: Indications are that the end of September and the beginning of October are likely to be characterised by mainly unsettled conditions across much of the UK, with outbreaks of rain affecting many parts. This rain is likely to be heaviest and most persistent across western areas of the UK, with the east most favoured to see some drier, brighter interludes. Winds may also be strong at times, particularly across the north and west. Temperatures, on the whole are likely to be close to or slightly above average. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Sep 2012 to Wednesday 26 Sep 2012: A good deal of dry weather is likely in the southeast of the UK on Monday with some sunshine and daytime temperatures a little above average. However chilly nights give the risk of some overnight fog. Northwestern parts will start windy, with large amounts of cloud giving outbreaks of sometimes heavy rain and temperatures a little below average. Bands of rain or showers are likely to spread erratically southeast from Tuesday, bringing unsettled conditions across all parts by the middle of next week. Unsettled and breezy conditions look likely to predominate in all areas thereafter, with temperatures expected to be close to or just below the seasonal average. The south and southeast is likely to see the best of any drier, brighter spells. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast