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Summer Sun

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  1. Thursday 23 Sep - Saturday 2 Oct Thursday and Friday look to be widely unsettled, with much of the UK receiving showers or longer spells of rain, as well as windy conditions. Northwestern areas will likely see the heaviest rain and coastal gales. From the weekend onwards, a very general northwest to southeast split to our weather is likely to develop. The northwest is expected to see the most of any unsettled conditions: outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier and sunnier weather looks more likely across the southeast, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly below average, but may slightly rise towards the end of this period. Sunday 3 Oct - Sunday 17 Oct Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  2. 17.3c to the 17th 3.2c above the 61 to 90 average 2.7c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st
  3. BBC monthly outlook Summary Unsettled, wet, and changeable for October ____________________ Saturday 18 September to – Sunday 26 September Unsettled and gradually turning cooler The start of the week should see some drier and sunnier skies for a time. High pressure will be shifting south across northern Europe and weakening, and by midweek a cold front will begin to push in from the northwest. This first front is likely to bring some rain to the northern half of the country, but by the end of the week and weekend, wet weather is expected widely. Temperatures at the start of the week will be slightly above average and gradually moderate, becoming slightly below average by the weekend. Monday 27 September to – Sunday 3 October Low pressure in charge keeping things unsettled The large-scale weather pattern that develops over Europe next week is likely to stick around for some time, persisting into the middle of October at least. This should see high pressure systems in West Russia and the North Atlantic or Greenland, with low pressure between them near the UK and North Europe. With low pressure nearby or overhead, unsettled weather is likely to be the norm with frequent rain and often breezy days. Temperatures are a little more tricky to pin down at the moment, and will be sensitive to the exact position of the low pressure system. If the low is east of the UK, northerly winds will make things feel cooler than normal, bringing some crisp autumn days. However, if the low is west or north of the UK, warmer air will feed in from the southwest. Temperatures are likely to shift around day-to-day as the low pressure system nearby moves around. We may see high pressure build stronger to the west of Europe, extending north toward Iceland, forming a large block for incoming weather systems. If this happens, low pressure will tend to be pushed into Scandinavia, with a consistent northerly wind for the UK. This becomes a colder outlook with temperatures consistently below average with rain less frequent. This scenario, has perhaps a 30% chance of occurring. Monday 4 October to – Sunday 17 October Staying unsettled and changeable Throughout the first half of October, we are seeing some encouraging signals that the large-scale pattern from late-September will continue without significant change. High pressure is likely to be a consistent feature in West Russia, which will be the main driving force for our weather. This high will tend to keep low pressure nearby or overhead and maintain the unsettled weather for the UK and North Europe. Temperatures will be around average but changeable. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to loiter to the southwest, occasionally building stronger and sending a brief ridge overhead between fronts. This high will control how many weather fronts we see streaming across the North Atlantic, and the weaker the high is the more weather fronts we will see. Later in mid-October, we may see this high pressure system consistently amplified to the north, increasing the chance of temperatures falling below average and reducing the number of weather fronts passing by. Our risk scenario for the first half of October is that a strong high pressure builds overhead, pushing low pressure toward Iceland or Norway. This is a drier, warmer, and sunnier outlook which will become more likely if we see a strong Atlantic hurricane push too far north. This becomes less likely as we head further into autumn, but it will remain a risk worth keeping an eye on. There is roughly a 35% chance of this pattern developing. Further ahead With low pressure set to be in charge for much of October, we will take a closer look at the chance of some colder weather setting in. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook
  4. Derby could get a 21 point points deduction 12 for going into administration then an additional 9 from the EFL from all the charges they were already under investigation for
  5. Continuing dry with patchy cloud and calm Temp 12.6c
  6. Wednesday 22 Sep - Friday 1 Oct A band of cloud and rain, heavy at times, looks likely to cross the UK on Wednesday, with sunny spells and showers either side of this. Thursday and Friday look to be unsettled and much of the country will see showers or longer spells of rain. Coastal gales likely in the northwest. From the weekend onwards, a northwest to southeast split to our weather is likely to develop. The northwest is expected to see the most unsettled conditions: outbreaks of rain, which could be heavy at times, and strong winds, possibly coastal gales. Drier and sunnier weather looks more likely across the southeast, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or slightly above average, with some chilly and misty nights possible. Saturday 2 Oct - Saturday 16 Oct Current signals, although quite weak, suggest that higher pressure is expected over the southeast during this period, giving generally settled conditions here and to eastern parts. Conversely, low pressure will tend to lie to the northwest of the UK, bringing more in the way of rain and stronger winds to northern and western areas. This more unsettled weather could occasionally spread further towards the southeast. Temperatures are more likely to be above average through this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  7. Ayr 1.55 Juan Elcano 2.30 Blackrod, Royal Scimitar & Bickerstaffe 3.05 Head Mistress 3.40 Popmaster & Ostilio 4.15 Hong Kong Harry Newbury 2.15 Hurricane Ivor 2.50 Solid Stone 3.25 Aramaic 4.00 Gubbass ___ Blackrod Popmaster Hong Kong Harry
  8. 17.4c to the 16th 3.2c above the 61 to 90 average 2.7c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st
  9. A dry morning with hazy sunshine Temp 14.4c with a low of 10.6c
  10. A dry night with mostly clear skies and calm Temp 11.4c
  11. Tuesday 21 Sep - Thursday 30 Sep Tuesday will remain quite cloudy with some patchy outbreaks of light rain or drizzle and with the best of any sunny spells in central locations. By mid-week a northwest to southeast split is likely to develop, and set the trend for the rest of September: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales. The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures generally near or above average, and likely to remain so for this period, still with some chilly and misty nights possibly, especially rural northern and western areas. Friday 1 Oct - Friday 15 Oct Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely. However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  12. 17.4c to the 15th 3.2c above the 61 to 90 average 2.7c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st
  13. A dry morning with mostly clear skies and calm Temp 15.6c
  14. A dry and calm night with mostly cloudy skies Temp 14.3c
  15. Monday 20 Sep - Wednesday 29 Sep Starting warm for many next week. A fair amount of cloud on Monday, with some outbreaks of rain mixed with brighter interludes. Driest across the far northwest and Northern Ireland, with the south rather cloudy and damp. High pressure builds from the south Tuesday onwards, giving largely fine conditions, although with a risk of an isolated shower. Into the remainder of September, a northwest to southeast split develops: the northwest will see the most of any unsettled conditions and outbreaks of rain, possibly heavy at times, with strong winds and coastal gales. The southeast seeing drier and sunnier weather, though unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread here at times. Temperatures above average to start the period, but near normal later with some chilly, and misty, nights possible. Thursday 30 Sep - Thursday 14 Oct Current signals, although quite weak, suggest low pressure will lie to the northwest of the UK during this period. This may bring unsettled conditions to northwestern areas, with a low risk of stormy conditions at times and in the southeast more settled weather is likely. However, unsettled weather in the northwest could still spread into the southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be above average throughout this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  16. BBC monthly outlook Summary Often unsettled, slightly warm start to October ____________________ Wednesday 15 September to – Sunday 19 September Briefly dry with greater rain chances later For the rest of the working week, the weather pattern will continue to shift away from high pressure towards more influential low pressure. A weak low will move away and allow for a mostly dry middle of the week before a cold front arrives and bring some rain to western areas. Over the weekend, this cold front is expected to slow down and weaken, eventually bringing some rain into the southeast. Meanwhile, another weak weather front will push in from the west and bring some rain to northern areas. Temperatures will likely stay just on the positive side of average. Monday 20 September to – Sunday 26 September Weather fronts with nearby high pressure For the final full week of September, we expect high pressure to build in East or Northeast Europe with another high pressure system lingering in the sub-tropical Atlantic to our southwest. This will open the door for low pressure near Iceland, the aptly named "Icelandic Low", to displace nearer to the UK. An unsettled and rather changeable pattern is set to continue throughout the week, with weather fronts bringing spells of rain and cooler days while occasional ridges of high pressure mix things up with some dry, sunny breaks. Temperatures will tend to fluctuate day-to-day but hover just above average. This is because low pressure systems will slow down as they approach Europe, thanks to high pressure to the east. As they slow, warmer southwest winds will feed some sub-tropical Atlantic air into the UK. Cooler spells will happen behind cold fronts as the North Atlantic air moves in from the northwest. Southern and eastern areas will tend to be a little drier overall, while western and northern areas see more frequent rainy days. The risk scenario is for a strong high pressure system to build overhead, either extending into the UK from the east, which is less likely, or building in from the southwest, which is a bit more likely. This would be a dry, largely sunny, and warm pattern as southerly winds bring air in from Spain and France. Monday 27 September to – Sunday 10 October Most likely staying unsettled with frequent rain As we head into the first part of October, the forecast gets a little tricky. The main uncertainty is on the location of high pressure in northern Europe, and we are getting a lot of conflicting signals from our forecasting tools. We think the unsettled weather will continue through the middle of October and potentially even longer, with more frequent weather fronts and a wetter, windier outlook. For early October, currently the most likely outlook seems to be that this low pressure dominated pattern persists for a few more weeks, as high pressure is favoured in eastern parts of Europe or Scandinavia. At the same time, high pressure will tend to linger and maintain strength in the Central Atlantic. This pattern helps strengthen the jet stream, which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems. A stronger jet stream means Atlantic fronts will continue to move in and give us plenty of wet weather with some day-to-day changeability. Central Atlantic high pressure may occasionally build in overhead, bringing some drier, warmer spells to break things up. These could become more frequent later in October, and it's difficult to say which signals may win out at the moment. Our alternate scenario, which has a roughly 35% chance of occurring, is for a larger scale high pressure system to develop over northern Europe, including the UK. This is a consistently drier and likely warmer pattern, with those southerly winds again bringing in Spanish and French air. Our computer models are favouring this currently, but they are likely over-estimating high pressure building into the North Atlantic. While the rainfall pattern is starkly different, temperatures are more likely to be mostly above average, with no strong signals for prolonged cold in either scenario. Further ahead Unsettled weather is still looking likely for early October, but we will look a little deeper into October to see how long it may stick around. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook
  17. 17.6c to the 14th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.8c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st
  18. Dry and sunny this morning after 8.6mm of rain overnight Temp 13.8c
  19. A cloudy night with persistent light rain and a light breeze Temp 13.5c
  20. 17.7c to the 13th 3.4c above the 61 to 90 average 2.8c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 18.1c on the 10th & 11th Current low this month 14.4c on the 1st
  21. Continuing dry with mostly cloudy skies and a light breeze Temp 12.3c
  22. It is much quicker today on the threads which exceed 200/300 pages
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