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Summer Sun

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  1. Wednesday 19 Aug - Friday 28 Aug The beginning of this period is likely to be generally unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain at times, potentially becoming heavy in places. There is also a chance that there could be some further thundery weather, although this would most likely be confined towards the east and southeast of the UK. It is likely to be windier than of late, especially in the south and west where there is also a risk of gales. Temperatures should start rather warm for many, despite the spells of unsettled weather. However, temperatures may cool slightly by the end of this period with freshening winds from the northwest likely to create a more widespread risk of gales. Saturday 29 Aug - Saturday 12 Sep Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that conditions will become more changeable with drier and brighter days interspersed with periods of rain and strengthening winds. Temperatures should be around the average for this time of year. Towards the end of this period, there are some tentative signs that high pressure could begin to dominate, especially across the south of the UK, with a return to more settled conditions. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  2. 19.5c to the 13th 3.4c above the 61 to 90 average 2.6c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.5c to the 13th Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th
  3. Continuing cloudy and dry with a light to moderate north easterly breeze Temp 15.1c
  4. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Aug 2020 ISSUED 06:45 UTC Fri 14 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan Similar to Thursday, a shortwave sliding WSW-wards across East Anglia into the Midlands will provide the focus for an uptick in elevated shower/thunderstorm activity over these areas during Friday morning. Most model guidance suggests this activity will decay towards midday, probably leaving quite a bit of cloud in its wake. In either case, there will likely be extensive low cloud, mist and sea fog across much of central and southern Britain, and how quickly this clears will determine how much surface heating can occur. Current thinking is cloud is most likely to break up across East Anglia and perhaps SE England, and diurnal heating will lead to the development of sea breeze convergence. Assuming this occurs, scattered slow-moving heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours. CAPE is notably lower than previous days and combined with weak shear will preclude most severe hazards - hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible, but the main threat is the risk of flash flooding, given PWAT still in the 35-40mm range. An isolated tornado is possible where low-level vorticity along convergence zones gets ingested. A few isolated heavy showers or weak thunderstorms may also develop in parts of S / SW Ireland and W / NW Wales. If more substantial cloud breaks develop across southern England then the risk may also increase here too, but confidence is too low to justify a SLGT at this stage. Overnight, minor shortwaves drifting eastwards from the near Continent continue to bring the risk of elevated showers and a few sporadic lightning strikes almost anywhere across central and southern Britain across to southern Ireland, although overall CAPE is a lot lower than previous nights so lightning will probably not be as prolific or widespread. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-14
  5. Cloudy and calm with some dampness in the air Temp 14.4c
  6. Tuesday 18 Aug - Thursday 27 Aug The beginning of this period is likely to be generally unsettled, with showers and longer spells of rain at times. There is also a low chance that there could be some further thundery weather, although this would most likely be confined towards the southeast of the UK. It is likely to be windier than of late, especially in the west where there is also a risk of gales. Temperatures should start rather warm for many, despite the spells of unsettled weather. However, temperatures may cool slightly by the end of this period as the low pressure system, which was situated over the west of the UK, pushes towards the east and allows for a freshening breeze to develop from the northwest. Friday 28 Aug - Friday 11 Sep Although confidence is low for this period, it is likely that conditions will become more changeable with settled days interspersed with periods of rain and strengthening winds, especially in the northwest. However, the east and southeast will perhaps remain slightly more settled throughout with temperatures around or above average. There is also a possibility for southern regions to turn very warm at times, with a potential for thunderstorms to develop. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  7. FA Cup replays have been scrapped for the 2020-21 season
  8. This coming season's EFL cup will be played over 5 weeks in September round 5 will then take place 2 or 3 days before Christmas Round 1 - 5th September Round 2 - 15th/16th September Round 3 - 22nd/23rd September Round - 4 29th/30th September Round - 5 22nd/23rd December Semi-Finals - 5th/6th January (tie to be played at the venue of Club drawn out first no 2nd leg) Final - 28th February 2021
  9. 19.3c to the 12th 3.3c above the 61 to 90 average 2.4c above the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 19.3c to the 12th Current low this month 15.6c to the 4th
  10. PSG beat Atalanta 2-1 with 2 injury time goals to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in 25 years
  11. Dry and cloudy with a much fresher feel thanks to a north easterly breeze Temp 15.1c
  12. Current watch level: Level 3 - Heatwave Action Issued at: 08:40 on Wed 12 Aug 2020 There is a 90 % probability of Heat-Health criteria being met between 0900 on Monday and 0900 on Friday in parts of England. This alert updates that issued at 08:47 Thursday 06 August. The alert level has increased to level 3 for West Midlands and East Midlands as confidence in hot weather and warm night thresholds is higher for Thursday. The alert level has also increased to level 2 for northwest England and Yorkshire and the Humber because locally some areas could meet thresholds through Thursday. Alert thresholds remain unchanged in all other regions. This forecast is under daily review, with the most likely change being a progressive downgrade in probability from the north and west late in the week. It may be extended into the weekend for the south. An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth
  13. Monday 17 Aug - Wednesday 26 Aug The beginning of the period should see settled conditions persisting with cloudy and humid conditions interspersed with sunny spells. Some light rain may spread north-westwards at times towards the middle of August. Southern and southeastern areas may see further periods of hot weather and thunderstorms at times throughout the period. Elsewhere it is likely to remain warm or very warm though cooler than last week. Fog patches are possible overnight for many which should readily clear during the mornings. Northwestern areas may see more changeable conditions developing towards the end of the period with a mixture of windier and wetter days mingled with drier days. Eastern and northeastern areas are likely to remain more settled throughout. Thursday 27 Aug - Thursday 10 Sep Although confidence is low for this period, conditions will likely become more changeable with periods of rain and breezier days at times at the end of August and into September, with temperatures returning to around average for the time of year. However, eastern areas will see the best of more settled weather with lighter winds and drier days. There is a possibility that some southern regions will turn very warm with thunderstorms at times. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  14. A train has derailed near Stonehaven following heavy rain. The Scottish Government are saying it's an "extremely serious incident" Major emergency response after train derails WWW.BBC.CO.UK Smoke can be seen as about 30 emergency vehicles were called to the scene, near Stonehaven in Aberdeenshire.
  15. The RAF crew in Ascot 467 should be getting a cracking view on the way home to Brize Norton
  16. Sunday 16 Aug - Tuesday 25 Aug The beginning of the period should see settled conditions persisting with cloudy and humid conditions interspersed with sunny spells. Some light rain may spread north-westwards at times towards the middle of August. Southern and southeastern areas may see further periods of hot weather and thunderstorms at times throughout the period. Elsewhere it is likely to remain warm or very warm though cooler than last week. Fog patches are possible overnight for many which should readily clear during the mornings. Northwestern areas may see more changeable conditions developing towards the end of the period with a mixture of windier and wetter days mingled with drier days. Eastern and northeastern areas are likely to remain more settled throughout. Wednesday 26 Aug - Wednesday 9 Sep Although confidence is low for this period, conditions will likely become more changeable with periods of rain and breezier days at times at the end of August and into September, with temperatures returning to around average for the time of year. However, eastern areas will see the best of more settled weather with lighter winds and drier days. There is a possibility that some southern regions will turn very warm with thunderstorms at times. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
  17. Dry and cloudy start with rain to the west of town Temp 17.4c
  18. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 Aug 2020 ISSUED 07:06 UTC Tue 11 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan ... SUMMARY ... A few isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible E Scotland and E England during Tuesday daytime Elevated showers/thunderstorms possible over SW England during Tuesday daytime Depending on strength of the cap, isolated to scattered explosive thunderstorms will be possible in parts of England and Wales by late afternoon into the evening - many areas within the SLGT will remain void of lightning. Any storms that do develop pose a threat for large hail and flash flooding An increase in thunderstorm coverage, primarily elevated, is expected from Cumbria northwards across a swathe of Scotland during Tuesday night A few scattered elevated showers/weak thunderstorms will be possible over the Channel Islands / English Channel on Tuesday night ... DISCUSSION ... Decaying MCV over Scotland on Tuesday morning has considerably worked over the environment last night. However, with a PV lobe aiding ascent, there is an ongoing risk of some sporadic lightning on its eastern flank from elevated convection through the morning as it continues to lift north and ultimately offshore. The same instability plume extend SSE-wards across eastern England, and continues to run a risk of a few isolated elevated thunderstorms developing this morning/early afternoon - some model guidance suggests this perhaps most likely from East Anglia across the East Midlands to Yorkshire. There may also be an uptick in elevated activity across central/eastern Scotland during the afternoon hours on the tail end of the morning MCV. other elevated showers/thunderstorms may also drift from the Brest peninsula towards SW England through the day. Elsewhere, it may be rather quiet for much of the day with an EML covering much of England and Wales and acting as cap to surface-based convection. Diurnal heating will lead to 1,000-2,000 J/kg CAPE building through the day, essentially once again creating a loaded-gun environment. Surface dewpoints may mix out a little, especially towards southern and eastern England where the hottest conditions are most likely. Nonetheless, it seems likely dewpoints of 19-20C will be fairly widespread, especially late afternoon and into the evening. The slack surface pattern will lead to several convergence zones developing, and these combined with orographic forcing will be crucial in providing forced ascent given the lack of any upper support. Forecast profiles suggest air temperatures of 32-33C in SE England to 29-30C in Wales will be required to break through the capping inversion. Where this in conjunction with low-level convergence occurs, explosive deep convection could evolve by late afternoon and more especially into the evening hours almost anywhere in England, Wales and southern Scotland. NWP guidance varies drastically as to where these convergence zones may develop, in part related to the events from Monday night, and so it is difficult to pinpoint specific areas where storms could fire. Bulk shear is a little on the weak side (15-20kts), but steep mid-level lapse rates and significant CAPE (fast upward motion) suggests that where storms do develop, the threat for large hail exists in the most organised cells (2-4cm in diameter). Inverted-V profiles suggests localised wind gusts of 40-50mph may occur, and with PWAT of 40-45mm and storm motion of ~15mph prolonged torrential downpours could lead to flash flooding. A SVR has been issued primarily for the threat of large hail and flash flooding, and to a lesser extent for damaging winds. Most surface-based storms will probably only last a couple of hours given the strong cap in place and lack of notable forcing aloft - however, the shortwave associated with elevated thunderstorm activity over SW England today may allow thunderstorms that do erupt over Wales and the West Country to persist through the evening hours as they track northeast across the Midlands. There is better agreement on a developing shortwave running northeast from the Irish Sea into northern England and Scotland on Tuesday evening and night, and this may lead to another wave of elevated thunderstorm clusters over these areas during the overnight period, with any activity across central and southern Britain generally quite isolated through this time. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-11
  19. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 Aug 2020 ISSUED 14:49 UTC Mon 10 Aug 2020 ISSUED BY: Dan UPDATE 14:49 UTC MDT introduced across N Wales and NW England for this evening/tonight, SLGT extended into W Scotland for tonight and expanded across southern England for the risk of a few scattered elevated showers/storms tonight Atlantic upper longwave trough will gradually sharpen on Monday, placing the British Isles under a broad southerly flow aloft. This will continue to advect a plume of high Theta-W slowly northwestwards through the forecast period, with a marked elevated mixed layer (EML) covering much of England and Wales and creating an environment with notably steep mid-level lapse rates. ... SUMMARY ... Scattered thunderstorms are likely over parts of Wales / SW England / Irish Sea / SW Scotland during Monday daytime Severe thunderstorms with large hail, flash flooding, strong gusts of wind and an isolated tornado will be possible over the Midlands and E Wales during Monday afternoon and evening Scattered thunderstorms may affect parts of N / NW England, Irish Sea and southern Scotland on Monday evening and night Isolated thunderstorms may be possible elsewhere, but with lower confidence ... WALES / NW ENGLAND / IRISH SEA / SW SCOTLAND - MONDAY DAYTIME ... Elevated convection (bases around 8-10,000ft) is likely to be ongoing on Monday morning across parts of Wales, SW England and perhaps NW England, lifting gradually north through the day while expanding in coverage as a shortwave engages with a Theta-E ridge. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and 500-700 J/kg CAPE, lightning is likely to be quite frequent in the most intense cells - especially over west Wales and parts of the Irish Sea where a greater coverage of lightning is expected. Lightning activity may weaken as storms approach the Isle of Man / eastern Northern Ireland / SW Scotland as profiles become increasingly saturated and instability weakens. Some hail may be possible, although the high cloud base and depth of hot air below suggests a lot of this will melt or shrink in size by the time it reaches the surface. Elsewhere, isolated elevated showers/thunderstorms will be possible in a zone from Wales across the Midlands and SE England as a weak PV filament lifts north and engages the plume. ... MIDLANDS / E WALES - MONDAY AFTERNOON / EVENING ... Strong surface heating is expected across southern and eastern England, with a slack low evolving in the vicinity of the M4 corridor. The EML will serve as a cap to surface-based development, and with T850s gradually warming through the day across SE England and East Anglia, these areas are likely to remain capped. However, some slight cooling at 850mb is possible over the West Country / SW Midlands, and IF surface temperatures can nudge close to the required trigger temperature of 30-32C (assuming dewpoints around 18-19C) this could breach the capping inversion and lead to explosive development in a loaded-gun environment, especially when aided by low-level convergence near the surface low centre and a PV lobe arriving from the English Channel. Should deep convection occur, the backed low-level winds north of the surface low and modest flow aloft will create 20-30kts DLS which may be sufficient for organisation and perhaps supercellular mode. Given the substantial CAPE (1,000-1,500 J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates, very frequent lightning and large, damaging hail 2-4cm in diameter would be possible (although possibly shrinking somewhat in size as it falls through the hot surface air before reaching the ground). PWAT near 40mm and storm motion of ~20mph brings the risk of prolonged torrential downpours and flash flooding. Should storms exhibit supercellular characteristics, then they may deviate to the right of the mean flow and slow their forward speed. Given the large T-Td spread, cloud bases may initially be quite high, around 6,000ft - but due to a combination of storm processes, northward movement into less-hot air and nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, cloud bases may steadily lower during the evening hours. Backed low-level winds will create 20-30kts LLS, which may bring the risk of an isolated tornado if cloud bases can lower substantially. Otherwise, inverted-V profiles suggests the risk of strong downburst winds 45-55mph. A SVR has been issued primarily for the threat of large hail and flash flooding, and to a lesser extent for strong winds and an isolated tornado. The greatest risk of severe thunderstorms appears to be initially close to the M4 corridor and SE Wales, shifting northwards into the south / central / west Midlands and east Wales during the evening, and then NW England / Irish Sea later. However, as storms run north into an increasingly capped environment, they may become more elevated in nature. Much of this depends on how strong the cap is during Monday afternoon... ... NORTHERN ENGLAND / SOUTHERN SCOTLAND - MONDAY EVENING / NIGHT ... As the shortwave ejecting north from France arrives during the evening hours, existing thunderstorms over the Midlands and/or new thunderstorms over NW England will likely grow upscale into a complex of primarily elevated thunderstorms over Cen N / NW England, while migrating northwards through the night towards southern Scotland. Lightning could be quite frequent in the strongest cells, and the threat of localised flooding exists from prolonged downpours. Some hail and gusty winds are also possible. ... ENGLISH CHANNEL - MONDAY NIGHT ... A few other elevated showers/thunderstorms may be possible in parts of western mainland Scotland, and perhaps also exiting northern France and across the Channel Islands / English Channel towards S / SE England during the overnight period. http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-10
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