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Summer Sun

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Summer Sun last won the day on February 11

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  1. Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 22 Apr 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 23 Apr 2019 ISSUED 21:08 UTC Sun 21 Apr 2019 ISSUED BY: Dan Atlantic longwave trough will continue to dig southwards during Monday towards western Iberia. As a result, southerly flow aloft across the British Isles will gradually back southeasterly, advecting relatively high ThetaW airmass from France into southern and central Britain. Areas of medium/high level cloud will occasionally drift northward courtesy of weak mid-level instability and increased moisture aloft. Deep mixing will likely occur through the day, resulting in steep low-level lapse rates. However, this will also likely mix drier air down to the surface, resulting in low dewpoints and large dewpoint depressions. Subtle forcing aloft will drift over S / SW Britain on Monday afternoon, coinciding with peak surface heating. This combined with low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing may allow a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms to develop late afternoon or evening, primarily Somerset/Glocs and into Wales. There could also be one or two over Ireland. However, the vast majority of NWP guidance remains sufficiently capped to prevent any thunderstorm development. GFS and derivatives (WRF, NMM) often produce profiles that are excessively moist, and hence suggest much higher surface dewpoints than most other models for Monday afternoon. Consequently they often favour thunderstorm development - especially over mountainous areas - when in similar events in the past such storms have failed to materialise. UKV and AROME have also been known to be too keen for thunderstorm development in fairly capped environments. As such, it is plausible that no thunderstorms may develop at all. That said, a broad LOW threat level has been introduced to cover the risk - at this stage it is difficult to be more precise where an isolated shower/storm may develop, though S + W Wales is most favoured. If confidence does improve a small SLGT may be introduced. Should a storm develop, given forecasting soundings and the potential magnitude of CAPE, there could be quite a bit of lightning locally. Any activity would then drift NW-wards towards eastern Ireland during the evening hours. On Monday night, pulses of showery rain will move into S / SW England containing the remnants of deep convection originating from northern France. Weak instability suggests any lightning activity with this should be fairly isolated. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-04-22
  2. Saturday 27 Apr - Monday 6 May Next weekend could be very unsettled, with often heavy rain and the risk of gales, especially in the west and southwest. Thunder and hail are likely at times and temperatures will mainly be on the cold side of average. Thereafter, for the remainder of April and into early May, unsettled conditions are likely to dominate, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the west and southwest. Whilst some rain is expected at times, there could be a shift towards more settled conditions later. Temperatures will most likely be near normal in the west, and slightly warmer than the seasonal average in the south and southeast. Tuesday 7 May - Tuesday 21 May For the middle of May, some rain and unsettled conditions are likely, especially at first. However, a shift towards more settled conditions than of late is probable. Whilst some rain is possible at times, a good deal of fine and dry weather is most likely, with temperatures mostly above the seasonal average. Any warmer conditions are most likely in the south and southeast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
  3. Shaun Murphy has delivered the 1st Crucible whitewash in 27 years defeating Luo Honghao 10-0
  4. 8.7c to the 21st 1.3 above the 61 to 90 average 0.8 above the 81 to 10 average _______________________________ Current high this month 8.7c to the 21st Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th
  5. Irish Grand National Burrows Saint - Nap Shattered Love Any Second Now
  6. Another mild and sunny start with cloudless skies and no breeze Temp 11.5c
  7. Apocalyptic footage shows shock devastation in wake of Guisborough Forest fire https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/apocalyptic-footage-shows-shock-devastation-16161257
  8. More than 50 firefighters are battling to bring a blaze under control on the Mourne Mountains in County Down. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48007613
  9. As fires break out around the UK some much-needed rain is on the way this week and next
  10. Remaining mild and calm with clear skies Temp 12.2c
  11. Gary Wilson beats Luca Brecel 10-9 after a marathon deciding frame
  12. Luca Brecel & Gary Wilson are in the longest deciding frame in Crucible history 75 minutes and counting surpassing the black ball final of 85 A masterclass of safety play from Luca and Gary
  13. Liverpool fans must be worried City will have a field day if Man U play like this on Wednesday
  14. Man U now haven't kept a clean sheet in 11 games it's the worst run they've had since 1998
  15. Friday 26 Apr - Sunday 5 May A band of showery rain is likely to reach the southwest on Friday, pushing eastwards with strong winds though the day. The weekend could be very unsettled, with often heavy rain and the risk of gales, especially in the west and southwest. Thunder and hail are also likely at times. Thereafter, for the remainder of April and early May, unsettled conditions are likely to dominate, with a chance of showers or longer spells of rain and some periods of stronger winds, especially in the west and southwest. Whilst some rain is expected at times, there could be a shift towards more settled conditions later. Temperatures will most likely be near normal in the west, and warmer than average in the south and southeast. Monday 6 May - Monday 20 May For the start of May, some rain and unsettled conditions are likely, but a shift towards more settled conditions is probable. Whilst some rain is possible at times, a good deal of fine and dry weather is most likely, with temperatures above the seasonal average. Any warmer conditions are most likely in the south and southeast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
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