Summer Sun

BBC Monthly Outlook Summary Chilly early March then warmer until late month Wednesday 27 March to – Sunday 3 March Unsettled and turning chillier Sunday 3 March to – Sunday 10 March Becoming milder and drier Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March Possibly turning colder after mid-month https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

232 temperature high records were set yesterday across the USA, with Killeen in central Texas the hottest, hitting 100F.

Sunday 3 Mar - Tuesday 12 Mar The start of this period is likely to be unsettled and showery, especially in the south where a spell of persistent rain and strong winds is possible, though temperatures should return to near-average. Through the week, there is some uncertainty, but high pressure may build to the east, bringing drier and more settled conditions (with some spring sunshine) for a time, especially in eastern areas, with western parts always more at risk of seeing further spells of rain and strong winds. Towards the middle of March, a typical mixture of conditions looks most likely with spells of rain interspersed with brighter, drier intervals. Temperatures are likely to be around, or a little above average, but some cold nights are certainly still possible. Wednesday 13 Mar - Wednesday 27 Mar During the rest of the month, there no especially strong signals on top of climatology at this range, though there is perhaps a slightly increased chance of spells of high pressure developing, probably centred to the north or west of the UK. Days of occasional warmth are more likely towards the end of the month as the sun continues to strengthen, and rainfall amounts would typically decrease a little in this period anyway, even though some wet and windy days are still likely. Winter hazards such as snow, and overnight frost and ice could occur anywhere, as often happens in March, but are most likely towards the north of the country. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.0c to the 26th 4.2c above the 61 to 90 average 3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Saturday 2 Mar - Monday 11 Mar Next weekend is likely to continue in an unsettled mood, though temperatures should slowly recover to near average for early March, though still with some frost by night in one or two places. All areas of the UK will be at risk of further showers (any snow limited to northern hills), with a chance of longer spells of rain in the south particularly at first. There will be drier interludes between times though, with some pleasant spring sunshine, especially in places sheltered from the often strong winds. The following week is likely to remain fairly mixed overall, but there may be a greater incidence of dry spells and early spring sunshine, especially in eastern areas. Temperatures are likely to be fairly typical, with a few overnight frosts still likely. Tuesday 12 Mar - Tuesday 26 Mar During the rest of the month, there no especially strong signals other than climatology at this stage. Days of occasional warmth are more likely towards the end of the month as the sun continues to strengthen, and rainfall amounts would typically decrease a little in this period, even though some wet and windy days are still likely. Winter hazards such as snow, and overnight frost and ice could occur anywhere, as often happens in March, but are most likely towards the north of the country. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.1c to the 25th 4.3c above the 61 to 90 average 3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Calm and dry tonight with mostly clear skies giving a cooler feel. Temp 3.2c

Friday 1 Mar - Sunday 10 Mar It will become cooler and more unsettled from Friday and through the weekend with temperatures a little below average. Areas of showers sometimes banding together for longer spells of rain, this heavy at times and likely to turn wintry, even a lower levels and some snow accumulations are likely over higher ground, particularly in the west. Clearer spells overnight with some frost or fog patches developing. Into the following week, the pattern likely returning to occasional frontal systems affecting more northern and western areas with some more settled spells developing in eastern areas as settled conditions spread out from northern Europe. Remaining around average temperatures for the time of year though some short-lived colder interludes remain likely. Monday 11 Mar - Monday 25 Mar Increasing likelihood that a more blocked weather pattern will persist with more settled conditions most likely affecting the east with winds favouring a more south or south-westerly direction at the start of this period, bringing most rainfall across western areas and more typically drier to the east. Late in the period location of this more settled block liable to migrate over the UK possibly leading to more northerly or easterly winds, but any dip in temperatures mitigated by increasing day lengths into late March. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.3c to the 24th 4.5c above the 61 to 90 average 3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

You know you've had a mild winter when you hear lawn mowers in February!

Thursday 29 Feb - Saturday 9 Mar A broad band of cloud and rain likely spreading across much of the UK through Thursday morning, windy at times particularly in the northwest. Likely turning increasingly showery across north-western areas, as some drier spells develop in the east. From Friday and through the weekend, generally unsettled conditions with areas of showers sometimes banding together for longer spells of rain, this heavy at times. Clearer spells overnight with some frost or fog patches developing. Into the new week conditions move to occasional frontal systems affecting further western areas with occasionally more settled spells developing in eastern areas as settled conditions spread out from northern Europe. Remaining around average temperatures for the time of year though some short-lived colder interludes remain likely. Sunday 10 Mar - Sunday 24 Mar Increasing likelihood that a more blocked weather pattern will persist with more settled conditions most likely affecting the east with winds favouring a more south or south-westerly direction up to mid-March, bringing most rainfall across western areas and more typically drier to the east. Late in the period location of this more settled block liable to migrate over the UK possibly leading to more northerly or easterly winds, but any dip in temperatures mitigated by increasing day lengths into late March. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

BBC Monthly Outlook Summary Becoming milder. Less unsettled in early March Saturday 24 February to – Sunday 3 March Becoming milder but changeable Monday 4 March to – Sunday 10 March Unsettled with above-average temperatures Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March Possibly turning colder after mid-month Further ahead In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if we can confirm the milder one or two weeks that we are expecting, and if there are any more signs of a colder spell later in March. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Wednesday 28 Feb - Friday 8 Mar Early rain across the south clearing with increasing sunny spells on Wednesday after any fog patches in central areas lift. Later in the day cloud and rain approach the far northwest before pushing across the UK on Thursday. This sets the scene for the following days as spells of rain are expected across all areas at times between brief settled spells, wettest overall in the west and northwest, where it will also sometimes be windy. Late in the period more settled conditions develop in the east as rain occasionally runs across western areas in a more southerly wind direction. Temperatures are most likely to be around or a little above average, though some short-lived colder interludes remain likely. Saturday 9 Mar - Saturday 23 Mar Increasing likelihood that a more blocked weather pattern will develop with more settled conditions most likely affecting the east with winds favouring a more south or south-westerly direction mid-March, bringing most rainfall across western areas and largely drier to the east. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.7c to the 22nd 4.8c above the 61 to 90 average 4.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Tuesday 27 Feb - Thursday 7 Mar A dry start to this period is most likely in the south of the UK, with some night-time frost and perhaps patchy fog, but rain will already by making its way into northern parts of the UK on Tuesday, spreading south. This sets the scene for a generally unsettled pattern that is likely to continue through to early March. Spells of rain are expected across all areas at times, wettest overall in the west and northwest, where it will also sometimes be windy. Temperatures are most likely to be around or a little above average, though some short-lived colder interludes that would allow sleet or snow to fall to lower levels are possible at times, these more likely in the north. Friday 8 Mar - Friday 22 Mar An initial continuation of unsettled conditions is most likely in this period, with low pressure systems continuing to cross west to east over or close to the UK, with mostly short-lived spells of drier and brighter weather between times. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. From mid-March, the chance of a longer period of more settled and drier weather increases. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.7c to the 21st 4.9c above the 61 to 90 average 4.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Monday 26 Feb - Wednesday 6 Mar A day or two of mostly settled and dry weather is likely at the start of this period, after any lingering rain clears the far south. Temperatures will be close to average, with some night time frosts, but will feel like a marked contrast to the mild conditions of recent weeks. After this, a generally unsettled pattern is most likely to resume and continue through to early March. Spells of rain are expected across all areas at times, wettest overall in the west and northwest, where it will also sometimes be windy. Temperatures are most likely to be around or a little above average, though some short-lived colder interludes that would allow sleet or snow to fall to lower levels are possible at times, these more likely in the north. Thursday 7 Mar - Thursday 21 Mar An initial continuation of unsettled conditions is most likely in this period, with low pressure systems likely to continue to cross west to east over or close to the UK, with mostly short-lived spells of drier and brighter weather between times. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. From mid-March, the chance of a longer period of more settled and drier weather increases. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.7c to the 20th 4.9c above the 61 to 90 average 4.4c above the 81 to 10 average

BBC Monthly Outlook Summary Unsettled and chilly at times Wednesday 21 February to – Sunday 25 February Unsettled and turning chillier Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March Remaining changeable. Possibly a bit milder later Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month Further ahead In the next update on Friday, we will see if models continue to suggest chances of a colder set-up, and we will take a look at the prospects for later March. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Sunday 25 Feb - Tuesday 5 Mar It will remain changeable through Sunday and Monday with a longer spell of rain likely across the south or southwest, and a scattered few showers elsewhere. Temperatures will be close to average, with some night time frosts. Although near normal, these temperatures will feel like a marked contrast to the mild conditions of recent weeks. A generally unsettled pattern is most likely to continue through to early March bringing spells of rain across all areas at times, wettest in the west and northwest, where it'll be windy too at times. Temperatures generally around average though some short-lived colder interludes are possible, these more likely in the north which may allow some sleet or snow to fall to lower levels at times. Wednesday 6 Mar - Wednesday 20 Mar An initial continuation of unsettled conditions is most likely in this period with low pressure systems likely to continue to cross west-to-east over or close-to the UK, with mostly short-lived spells of drier and brighter weather between times. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. From mid-March, the chance of a longer period of more settled and drier weather increases. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.7c to the 19th 4.9c above the 61 to 90 average 4.3c above the 81 to 10 average

BBC said it's turning chiller later in the week. They then show temperatures ranging from 7c in the north to 10c in the south. That's not really chilly for late winter.

Saturday 24 Feb - Monday 4 Mar It will remain rather cool and changeable over the weekend with further showers or longer spells of rain in most areas, but perhaps more especially in the south of the UK. It's also likely to be windy at times, and there is a small chance that it could be quite stormy, so probably worth keeping an eye on the forecast. A generally unsettled pattern is most likely to continue through to early March bringing spells of rain across all areas at times, wettest in the west and northwest, where it'll be windy too at times. Temperatures generally around average though some short-lived colder interludes are possible. These more likely in the north which may allow snow to fall to lower levels at times. Tuesday 5 Mar - Tuesday 19 Mar A continuation of unsettled conditions is most likely in this period with low pressure systems likely to continue to cross over or close-to the UK, with mostly short-lived spells of drier and brighter weather between times. Temperatures are likely to be near normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.6c to the 18th 4.8c above the 61 to 90 average 4.2c above the 81 to 10 average

A very mild and dry night with patchy cloud and calm Temp 8.0c