Summer Sun

ECM ensemble showing things becoming more settled during next week with high pressure moving up from the south the ensemble shows the high moving away west at day 10 allowing things to turn slightly more unsettled especially the further north you are

Still big differences between UKMO and ECM for early next week UKMO at t120 at t144 ECM for the same time Up to and including t192 ECM maintains its high pressure though northern Scotland looks prone to unsettled weather Its at t216 and t240 its backed away will be interesting to how this sits with the ensemble run later

ECM ensemble continues to show high pressure building in next week with the 850's slowly rising Something is going to give its just a matter of time one or maybe more of the models is wrong but which will it be

Still no agreement from the models with ECM not backing down from its pressure rise yet GEM, GFS and UKMO also not backing away from the unsettled start to the week rather confusing it has to be said

ECM isn't backing down from its pressure rise this evening Unusual to see such big differences between ECM and UKMO at t144 ECM is certainly consistent at the moment doesn't mean it will be right of course considering how different it is to the rest I'll be amazed if its called next week right if it has then hats off to it

It has to be said ECM looks very isolated this afternoon at t144 with GEM, GFS and UKMO all going against its pressure rise UKMO doesn't develop the deep low to the west of Ireland like GFS, GEM & ECM instead it sends a 1000mb low towards the south Hats off to ECM if it keeps the high later on but it wouldn't surprise me if it moves away from it given how isolated it looks

Given that ECM still has no support for its pressure rise early next week I wouldn't be surprised if it back tracks this evening if it doesn't then it will continue to look very isolated with GFS UKMO and GEM all going against it UKMO wouldn't arrive till later in the week as per today's text update GFS FI looking very unsettled with the short spell of warm air moving east

The rain is a lot more patchy than I was expecting today its coming over in showers rather than a lengthy band Quite breezy again and cooler than it was yesterday at 13.3c currently

What a stunning run from ECM this morning with high pressure galore from Wednesday week with the 850's becoming increasingly higher as the run progresses ECM ensemble continues to show a pressure rise So another solid run from ECM from both its Op and Ensemble GFS control in FI looking very warm and humid for the time of year for a time

ECM ensemble slowly coming on board now appears the Op was over cooking the low at t240 with the ensemble clearly going for high pressure rather than low pressure

Met office response to the Daily Mirror There are reports this morning in the Daily Mirror of a heatwave heading to the UK by the middle of the month and sticking around for a fortnight. So is it true? Well possibly. However the forecast, provided to the Mirror by Exacta Weather, is far more definite than the Met Office would be willing to predict so far in advance. There looks to be a general trend in 10-15 days of high pressure taking over. That should lead to more settled, drier and warmer conditions. However, confidence levels are too low to say for certain and the Met Office (the UK's main forecaster) only predict up to 5 days with confidence. Although in the UK there is no official definition of a heatwave the World Meteorological Organisation definition is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C". London's average daytime maximum temperatures in the middle of May are 17C. Therefore to constitute a heatwave we would need to see 5 consecutive days with temperatures peaking above 22C. However, the Met Office said it was "far too early to tell" if London would experience a heatwave. "You may have seen some reports this morning that Britain is likely to see much warmer than average weather lasting over two weeks into the beginning of June," a spokesperson said. "However, although there are early signals that that there is a very small probability that mainland Europe could see warmer than average temperatures by the end of May, it is far too early to tell if this will extend as far Northwest as the UK." http://www.itv.com/news/london/2014-05-06/is-a-heatwave-on-its-way-to-london/

His Facebook page is full of this "Major spell of warm weather" https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather?ref=br_tf

ECM sticking to its guns this evening building pressure next Tuesday cooler to start with but the 850's soon rise only place prone to unsettled weather is northern Scotland where you'd be closer to low pressure systems Another battle developing here between GFS and ECM a case now of which is right and which is wrong A more unsettled end to ECM for most with the low pressure system moving southwards those in the far south cling onto the high

GEM showing something more settled at day 8 but some parts of the north would be more unsettled with a deep low pressure system crossing to the north of Scotland with the high pushing up from the south Will be interesting to see what ECM comes up with later GFS hasn't moved to its offerings yet so caution remains with ECM until we get any firm agreement we all know what happened last week.......

Much better today a lot more sunshine around starting to feel really warm now in the sun bit of a nuisance this wind but at least its not overly strong 17.1c currently Both stations in Darlo have recorded 18.0c this afternoon

Up-to 10.5c to the 5th 0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

As expected much more sunshine today than yesterday with highs around 17c possibly 18c if we are lucky

Lovely ECM again this morning from day 8 still showing my thoughts from yesterday that we could see a month of 2 half's more unsettled and cooler at times in the first half with the second half becoming increasingly warmer and more settled The south sees the change to more settled weather first with it gradually pushing further north during day 9 reaching all by day 10 GEM also shows it becoming more settled and increasingly warmer though Scotland could be still prone to unsettled weather at times

At day 10 so caution as ever but the ECM ensemble looks good for a settled warm spell to develop

The best way is probably larger regional when its quieter then reopen the current ones for busier times like winter Maybe you could place some ideas into a poll for everyone to vote on for say a week? bigger regional's for quieter times is probably the way forward its just how to implement it best

Very deep low in the Atlantic a week Tuesday but for the UK we have a a ridge of high pressure By day 9 the low moves east with its centre NW of Scotland wettest and windiest weather for the north with the far south under the high ECM ends with a NW flow for the UK as the deep low from earlier continues to move east

A warm day here in Darlington but the sun is very hazy with increasing cloud from the west Currently 14.5c Tomorrow looks better for sunshine here in Darlington

Up-to 10.3c to the 4th 0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

Hazy sunshine in Darlo at the moment but rain isn't due till this evening which in turn will clear to leave a sunny day tomorrow (probably sunnier than today unless this high level cloud shifts) although some scattered showers may develop during the afternoon another warm one tomorrow especially in the sunshine

A more promising end to ECM this morning with high pressure starting to move in Temperatures still down initially but they soon recover GEM shows the high slowly moving up from the Azores at day 9 with any rain shifted to the north by day 10 Then we have GFS which doesn't want to build pressure like ECM and GEM however GFS isn't a washout by any means Respectable temperatures as well Starting to wonder if we'll see a month of 2 half's more unsettled to start the month then becoming warmer and drier in the second half