Summer Sun

GFS 06z is dominated by high pressure again into June this has been a theme over the past few days now on a number of runs http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm The latest met office outlook for most of June remains unchanged from the past few days

10.5c to the 20th

Heavy rain late last night not as heavy as Saturday mind There is a chance of some sunny intervals this afternoon once the cloud starts to thin

The ECM monthly ensemble for Birmingham shows temperatures getting to and staying around average from around June 3rd to at least the 20th Yes we know they should be there but after the year we've had so far with cool weather it will make a change to get some seasonal temperatures Rainfall looks like hovering around average before a slight increase mid June

Unsettled across EuropeHeavy Rain and ShowersIssued: 0530hrs Tuesday 21st May 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Windy and the Central Mediterranean Today Expect a few showers across Britain today. A wet day across most of France the outbreaks of rain, heavy in places. Some heavy rain to may threaten the extreme southern parts of Spain with some light rain in the far north. The rest of Spain and Portugal should be fair and dry. Mostly cloudy with showers across Holland, Germany, Poland, the Baltic States and Eastern Russia. Some of these are likely to be heavy across north-eastern Europe with a risk of thunder. Cloudy across Belgium with some outbreaks of rain. Showers are expected across parts of Denmark, Norway and Sweden with a dry day of sunny spells expected across Finland. Expect showers across the Czech Republic today but fine and dry across Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina into Bulgaria, Romania and the Ukraine. Most of Greece will be fair and dry with good sunny spells across Western parts of Turkey and showers across eastern parts of Turkey. Generally a rather cloudy but essentially dry day to come across much of Italy with the best of the sunshine in the south. An area of rain is expected to move out of northern Africa towards southeastern Spain where it will become very windy. Wednesday Just a few well scattered showers across England today and across the north France. Some rain to come across central France with the south dry. Most of Spain and Portugal be dry today with sunny spells just the odd shower for central Spain in the afternoon. A dry day across the Balearics with scattered showers expected across Sardinia into southern parts of Italy were some could be heavy. Northern Italy looks mainly dry but rather cloudy. Outbreaks of rain are forecast for Belgium, Holland, most of Germany, Norway and Sweden. Across Poland at expect a day of sunny spells and showers in showers are also expected across the Baltic States into Russia. Just wanted to shout to come across Croatia and the Adriatic region. Dry days expected across the Czech Republic with showers forecast across Austria and Hungary. Patchy rain will affect parts of Romania with a few showers across the Ukraine. A dry day to come across Bulgaria, Greece and most of Turkey. Lots of showers to come today across the central part of the Mediterranean, some of these may be heavy with a risk of thunder. Winds will also be quite strong and gusty in the central Mediterranean with strong northwest winds blowing down to the North Sea. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130521

Unsettled Rain and Showers Often Windy Temperatures below normal before rising later http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130521

Yes there was an amber warning out to 20:00 but they removed it early

The ECM ensemble shows high pressure building in nicely as the month draws to a close

ECM is getting there slowly but surely tonight with high pressure slowly building in from the west

It fades away yes but it soon returns Last day before it breaks up Returns in the north first Before extending UK wide All in all good signs again for a settled start to June as per the latest met office update this afternoon

Not bad from UKMO at t144 with low pressure anchored across Greenland high pressure is getting a decent chance to build

Back to the blues Just when you thought it was safe to liberate your spring wardrobe it looks as if the weather is about to take a tumble again. As BBC Weather's Nick Miller explains, for all of us it's back to the blues. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/22597036

Sunshine and thunderstorms across Britain as forecasters predict temperatures of 19C and warn of huge hailstones [*]Warnings in place for central parts of England and south east Scotland [*]Heavy showers, flash flooding and huge hailstones may be seen today [*]Country will mostly be dry tomorrow with temperatures in the mid-teens [*]East-west split expected on Thursday and Friday http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2327512/UK-weather-Sunshine-thunderstorms-hit-Britain-forecasters-predict-temperatures-high-19C-warn-huge-hailstones.html#ixzz2TqPdveF8

Well apart from an area heavy showers and a lightening strikes around the Dundee area its all quite across Scotland so far The severe weather warning for the thunderstorms expires at 20:00

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Jun 2013 to Tuesday 18 Jun 2013: There are signals that conditions should begin to settle down into the beginning of June, becoming drier than normal for many areas, especially across the west with the influence of high pressure extending from the Azores. Temperatures should also return to normal for early June, so feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine, but currently no signal for heat wave conditions, and feeling cooler around coastal areas where sea breezes develop. Variable amounts of cloud are likely around the country, but also interspersed with sunnier conditions. Some showers are still possible through the period, especially in the east. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

The latest forecast from the met office today continues to suggest the unsettled weather will shift to north west Scotland at the end of May / early June with near average temperatures across the UK for early June

Areas Affected: SE Scotland & NW England (edited this AM to include parts of the Midlands) Synopsis: A broad area of low pressure will be located to the east of Britain through much of the North Sea and Scandinavia, while a weak ridge of higher pressure will be situated to the west of Scotland as an occluded front pushes over the top of that into NW Britain later in the day. This will result in a weak northerly flow across much of northern Britain. Discussion: Very little upper level forcing is expected across the slight area through the day, but cloud should break towards midday and into the early afternoon allowing for some insolation, and that combined with weak low level convergences and about 200-300j/kg of CAPE could trigger scattered showers. A few of these showers (20% chance) may grow large enough to produce a few lightning strikes during the mid-to-late afternoon, before weakening with the loss of daytime heating. Storms will remain of the pulse variety as little to no shear is expected, however low level convergence and topography could produce a few weak funnels. Main threats are brief heavier downpours and infrequent CG lightning. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/244

A cloudy morning in Darlo to start the new working week looks like we've had some light rain over night hopefully the cloud will thin and breaking during this afternoon and allow the strong May sunshine to get out again

Changeable EuropeRain at timesIssued: 0530hrs Monday 20th May 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling A changeable pattern across Europe with rain for many Monday Heavy showers affecting much of central and eastern Spain on Monday, with the threat of some rain in southern Portugal too. Fair with good spells of sunshine in much of Italy, although some heavy showers to the north. Staying fine across Greece with more sunshine here, and more warm sunshine to come in Turkey too. Some showers for France, these heavy at times. More persistent rain affecting northern parts of France and the Low Countries, with some heavy rain for Germany. Switzerland and Hungary as well as Austria will have thundery showers. Low pressure brings showers or rain to Denmark. Sunny spells and mainly dry through the Baltic States, but cloud and rain in Finland. Some rain in eastern Norway but fair to the west with some sunny spells here. Tuesday Cloud and some showers over southern parts of Spain on Tuesday. More inland areas should be dry with good spells of sunshine, and fair through Portugal too. Some heavy showers in the Balearics, as well as central Italy. Fair and warm across Greece and Turkey with more sunshine to come here. Some cloud and outbreaks of rain in northern France but southern areas should be dry with some sunshine. Cloud and some rain in the Low Countries and northern Germany. Showers, some heavy over Hungary and Austria as well as Switzerland. For western Norway the day will be cloudy with some showery outbreaks of rain. Heavy showers in Denmark. Cloud and rain through the Baltic States, with Finland being dry with sunny spells. Cloud and some rain affecting the east of Sweden. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130520

Weather Online's forecast to mid June Valid from 19/05 to 18/06 2013Drier northIssued: Sunday 19th May 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob Weather machine plays games, but we must try to beat it! There are times when, as a forecaster, you have to throw your hands in the air and say "I give up!". It seems that the weather machine is playing games and the forecast for a fine week that is made one day, suddenly turns to colder and more unsettled weather with the next forecast. sunshine. Often the most frustrating part of the forecast is that the large scale atmospheric patterns are correct. And that's pretty much the situation we find ourselves in now. We are confident that high pressure is probably going to be north of the UK through the coming month, with low pressure to the south. However, the subtle changes that are taking place within this circulation pattern and the things that cause the problems. *........25/05/13* Indications are for a week which will be turning ever cooler and more unsettled. As northerly winds set in, it will be northern and eastern Scotland as well as eastern England that see the highest risk of showers and rain. Western parts of the country are likely to be better. However, as low pressure settled in towards the weekend things could turn more unsettled through the Midlands and southern England. *26/05/13.......01/06/13* Indications are still that high pressure will intensify to the north of Scotland through this week. Lower pressure is to the south of the UK, and this will be bringing a chilly week with some outbreaks of rain across more southern and eastern parts of England at times. This rain may trouble the Midlands too. Better weather through more northern and western areas, with the best sunshine for western Scotland, northwest England and western Wales. Cool for most in that wind which could be strong at times in the southeast. *02/06/13......08/06/13* Hints that the high slips off to the west of Scotland this week. This allows the winds to turning more into the northwest. Plenty of dry weather is likely in much of Scotland and Ireland with sunny spells, although northern Scotland could see some showers at times. The low pressure stays to the south and again it will be southern and southeastern England that is most at risk from some rain. Staying cool with the winds mainly from the east or northeast. *09/06/13......15/06/13* The high is expected to retreat further into the Atlantic. Probably a more westerly flow through Scotland bringing some cloud and outbreaks of rain here at times. The southern half of the UK may well be drier and brighter with sunny spells. *16/06/13......22/06/13* Hints of turning more unsettled over Scotland and Ireland as well as northern England this week. More southern areas should be drier with sunny spells and staying mild too. Note that confidence is low. Probably feeling milder too. Simon & Capn Bob http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20130519

Weather Online's second Summer forecast Best in JulyMore unsettled AugustIssued: Sunday 19th May 2013 Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob *July* Indications are that high pressure is going to be dominating the weather across the southern half of the UK and Ireland through July. Models are in good agreement that the month is going to be drier than normal and more sunnier than normal across England and Wales as well as southern Ireland. However, lower pressure is to the north and that probably allows fronts to pass eastwards through the country bringing some periods of cloud and rain at times. It could be breezy in northern Scotland too. *August* High pressure is expected to drift south of the UK through August. Pressure looks to be lower through more central areas. This is likely to be bringing periods of rain through Ireland and much of Scotland as well as southern England. Overall a more unsettled month with near to above normal rainfall totals. Captain Bob & Simon Keeling http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20130519

Severe weather for Thunderstorms now in force from the met office for; East Lothian, Edinburgh, Midlothian Council, Scottish Borders, West Lothian Issued at: 0847 on Mon 20 May 2013 Valid from: 1400 on Mon 20 May 2013 Valid to: 2000 on Mon 20 May 2013 Slow-moving thunderstorms are expected during Monday afternoon and early evening, with the potential for large amounts of rain and hail to fall in a short period. The public should be prepared for the risk of localised flash flooding, particularly where these thunderstorms occur in urbanised areas. Chief Forecaster's assessment A rather warm and moist airmass will affect Scotland during Monday, with the ingredients for some energetic storms to form by the afternoon in eastern Scotland, transferring across parts of the central lowlands and southern Scotland by evening. 20-30 mm of rain could fall within 1 hour, with the possibility that a few spots could receive double this within 2-3 hours, leading to the risk of localised flash flooding, particularly in urban areas. Hail will be an additional hazard in some places, possibly leaving roads slippery for a time and slowing the drainage of surface water. Overall, there is a medium risk of medium impacts, whilst locally there is also a low risk of high impacts. http://www.metoffice...Time=1369004400

Severe weather for Thunderstorms now in force from the met office for; East Lothian, Edinburgh, Midlothian Council, Scottish Borders, West Lothian Issued at: 0847 on Mon 20 May 2013 Valid from: 1400 on Mon 20 May 2013 Valid to: 2000 on Mon 20 May 2013 Slow-moving thunderstorms are expected during Monday afternoon and early evening, with the potential for large amounts of rain and hail to fall in a short period. The public should be prepared for the risk of localised flash flooding, particularly where these thunderstorms occur in urbanised areas. Chief Forecaster's assessment A rather warm and moist airmass will affect Scotland during Monday, with the ingredients for some energetic storms to form by the afternoon in eastern Scotland, transferring across parts of the central lowlands and southern Scotland by evening. 20-30 mm of rain could fall within 1 hour, with the possibility that a few spots could receive double this within 2-3 hours, leading to the risk of localised flash flooding, particularly in urban areas. Hail will be an additional hazard in some places, possibly leaving roads slippery for a time and slowing the drainage of surface water. Overall, there is a medium risk of medium impacts, whilst locally there is also a low risk of high impacts. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=dg&fcTime=1369004400

Yes temperatures by Thursday will be well below the seasonal norm but they'll still be into double figures for many especially those in the south and west and where you have the sunshine it won't feel too bad

Unsettled and Cooler Rain and Showers Often Windy http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130520