Summer Sun

GFS 06z has this low at 980mb

The only problem is when the Atlantic arrives it can take months to shift I personally think December will be mild seeing a continuation of Autumn

Yep +NAO looking likely now for November We could be looking at one of the mildest Autumns in a long time this year

Becoming More SettledRain across IberiaIssued: 0530hrs Friday 25 October 2013 Duty forecaster: John Ejdowski Dry across the Mediterranean, Balkans Today Windy with outbreaks of rain across England and into northern France, Belgium and Holland. Outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain are also forecast across western Spain with heavy showers into Portugal. Eastern Spain and the Balearics should be fair and dry. Dry as well across southern France. Rather cloudy but dry across Germany and Denmark. Sunnier with a good deal of dry weather expected from Poland eastward across the Baltic States, Belarus into most of the Ukraine and Romania. Outbreaks of rain are forecast across Finland and most of Russia. Lots of fine, dry weather to come across the Adriatic Region and the Balkans. Much of the Mediterranean Region will also be dry with sunny spells. Across Italy, Sardinia and Corsica. Cold but dry sunny spells across Norway and northern Sweden with southern Sweden a bit milder. Saturday Further spells of rain spread in across England. Much of Europe is looking settled dominated by high pressure. It will be fair and dry from France across the Low Countries into Germany and Poland, although an area of heavy rain is expected from Finland through the Baltic Region into the extreme northern parts of Poland and Germany. This rain will also affect most of Sweden, Norway and Denmark. It will remain dry and pleasantly mild across the Adriatic Region with all of the Balkans also dry and mostly sunny. Lots of sunshine to come across Turkey, Greece and Italy today. A better day to come across Iberia with sunny spells across Portugal and Spain, although a few showers may affect central Spain. Southwesterly gales are likely to affect Britain, northern France, the Low Countries and across into Sweden and north eastern Europe. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=EuropeanSummary

You may have even longer to wait yet if one doesn't arrive in the brief cool down next week after the storm leaves Matt Hugo has tweeted this, this morning MattHugo81 Latest EC32 maintains an unsettled +NAO pattern throughout the bulk of November with little evidence of a pattern change #unsettled Thats likely to mean this mild weather is going to last a long time yet, of course we can get frost's in unsettled spells but you have to relie on winds falling light

Latest from Gibby All models show a major storm system affecting parts of England and Wales as we move out of the weekend and into the start of next week. In the short term there will be plenty of rain and showers scattered about the UK in fresh to strong West or SW winds. the rain could be heavy in places as a cocktail of troughs cross the UK in the strong breeze. It will feel rather colder than of late. The main problems begin on Sunday evening as a vicious storm system which develops explosively down to the SW of the UK on Sunday whistles across Wales on its way to the North Sea and Northern Europe. Wind gusts of 70-80mls per hour could occur across Southern England for a time in the first hours of Monday morning. through the day the storms transfer east out into the North sea and things calm down quite quickly as pressure rises rapidly and a window of dry and quiet weather is shown to develop for all for a time around midweek as a ridge of High pressure crosses East. GFS then turns things rather unsettled again as Low pressure, this time well to the NW brings a return to rain and strong winds at times to all but more concentrated towards the NW. This pattern continues throughout the rest of the run with all areas seeing some rain though temperatures will never be far from average values for late October and early November. UKMO shows a ridge having crossed the UK on Wednesday with a short drier spell with light winds before low pressure moves in towards the NW again on Thursday with increasing winds, cloud and rain rolling in off the Atlantic towards the North and West in particular. GEM today shows an unsettled and changeable pattern beyond the midweek quieter period with a return to brisk and sometimes strong West or SW winds with rain at times and temperatures close to average. NAVGEM too shows changeable conditions but with High pressure closer to the South at times the bulk of the strongest winds and heaviest rains will be felt across Northern and Western areas with some brighter and drier periods across the South. Temperatures will be close to or maybe a fraction above average at times. ECM is locked well into a changeable pattern from the midweek next week with spells of rain blowing through on a fresh to strong Westerly breeze. there will inevitably be some drier and brighter periods especially in the South at first and between bands of rain sunshine and showers are possible. Temperatures will be close to average for the time of year. The GFS Ensembles look less wet in the South this morning with a trend towards milder weather with above average uppers over us from the exit of the early week storm. In the north the sine wave pattern of a mild day, then a cooler one is noted with very changeable conditions in terms of rain and wind amounts too look likely. The Jet Stream shows a fairly incessant pattern of the flow undulating in a SW to NE direction across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure will be present over Europe keeping much of the UK on the mild side of the jet flow with any cold air held well north of the Jet flow and the UK over the period. In Summary the weather will remain unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times for all. The storm system of Sunday night and Monday morning will be the most severe weather of the period with the UK reverting to a much more average period thereafter with the rain and showers being heaviest and most prolonged to the North and West of Britain along with the strong winds. temperatures will be always close to average and probably above at times, especially in the South. http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

Still questions as to where the centre of this low will develop and where it does is crucial ECM has it just south of the republic of Ireland Where as UKMO has it much closer

Synopsis Beneath a very sharp/elongated longwave trough, a new surface low will track northwards across Ireland, while surface fronts migrate northeastwards across most parts of the British Isles. In the post-frontal environment, cooling mid-levels over warm SSTs (and LSTs) will result in some convection chances. Discussion A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop offshore to the south of Ireland around 05z-07z as a shortwave trough destabilises an environment with 600-800 J/kg CAPE. This shortwave/cluster will then expand and drift northeastwards through the remainder of the forecast period, reaching SW Scotland/Cumbria towards mid-afternoon. In the wake of this shortwave, further showers and a few thunderstorms will develop elsewhere across the Irish Sea, Wales and SW England. Depth of instability is questionable, and hence lightning coverage remains uncertain/borderline SLGT, but given ELTs down to -40C in a strongly sheared environment (30-40kts DLS) some sporadic lightning is expected from any well-organised cells. In fact, despite the cold front/occlusion passing through, surface dewpoints will still be around 13C leading to low LCLs, and given 25-35kts LLS with some slight backing of surface winds, there is scope for an isolated tornado. The strongest cells may occasionally exhibit supercell-like characteristics, capable of producing some small hail and gusty winds. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/290 SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #035ISSUED: 1300UTC THURSDAY 24TH OCTOBER 2013 SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDSBRIEF, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES - SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS IN EFFECT FROM 0200UTC UNTIL 0900UTC FRIDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2013 JET DRIVEN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WITH POST-FRONTAL INSTABILITY, WITH FAVOURABLE SHEAR FOR WELL ORGANISED CONVECTION DISCUSSION: THERE IS MODERATE MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK DURING THE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE SW WILL PUSH AN ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE UP THROUGH THE UK, DELIVERING SOME 20-30MM OF RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT TIME. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WALES LATER IN THE MORNING, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS ONLY SLIGHT, BUT THESE AREAS ARE HIGHLY SHEARED BOTH VERTICALLY AND DIRECTIONALLY, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR WELL ORGANISED CELLS TO OCCUR. MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTED ONSHORE INTO COASTAL AREAS, THOUGH THERE IS SCOPE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THEREAFTER INLAND. THE ONCOMING JET CONVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD STIFLE FURTHER CONVECTION AFTER THE WATCH PERIOD, SO THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA. http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Latest from Gibby All models show Low pressure becoming dominant again over the next few days as the first centre moves North North-east across the UK tomorrow and is followed by very deep Low pressure up to the North with a broad run of westerly winds with showers and longer spells of rain over the weekend. On Monday the risk of a severe weather event is still shown by the most powerful models and if the path of the storm takes a track over Northern Wales and England severe or storm force winds are possible for a time on Monday but there is still an element of doubt as to how strong the winds will be and where tonight. GFS then takes us through the remainder of next week with changeable weather maintained but with less wind than early in the week as Low pressure ends up close to SW England with rain at times and relatively mild conditions in the Southerly flow. Later in the output the Atlantic racks up strength again with gales and spells of rain and showers returning to all areas over week 2 as deep Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK. UKMO tonight shows a brief lull following the Monday storm with sunshine and showers before a new Low pressure up to the NW brings renewed strong winds and heavy rain East across all areas around midweek. Temperatures wouldn't be far from average but it will feel cold in the wind and rain. GEM shows a very changeable and windy period through next week with High pressure never far from the South especially later in the run. Nevertheless, it would be sufficiently far away to maintain windy weather for all with Westerly gales on northern and Western coasts and hills at times. rain would be commonplace too with the North and West seeing the most of this until all areas dry out a bit as pressure builds up from the SW at the end of the run. NAVGEM keeps very unsettled weather next week with spells of rain and showers for all as Low pressure continues to move across or to the North of the UK. Temperatures would fluctuate between average and maybe a little above or below average at times. ECM tonight shows a brief respite from the wind and rain as we move through midweek as a weak ridge crosses the UK from the West. Later in the week Low pressure intensifies again to the North bringing renewed rain and strong winds across from the West from later in the week. Temperatures will be close to average. The GFS Ensembles continue to show mostly unsettled weather with rain at times in a strongly Atlantic based weather pattern. Temperatures are never expected to be cold or overly warm through the period with strong winds at times too. The Jet Stream shows the flow troughed down to the SW of Britain but flattens out on a West to East axis across the Atlantic and the UK from the weekend and well into the end of next week. In Summary the weather looks like staying very unsettled over the next few weeks. There will just be a few shorter and drier interludes between lengthy spells of rain and showers. The start of next week looks potentially stormy with the risk of some damaging winds over Southern Britain for a time. Temperatures are likely to be average for most of the time but with all the wind and rain it will feel chilly for much of the time too. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

Could you pop your location into your profile? At the moment the north should escape the worst Currently Manchester north we're looking at gusts speeds ranging from around 25mph to 36mph Where as in Cornwall we're looking at 67mph gusts This is what the met office currently think (time of day top right)

970mb low from ECM this evening UKMO and GFS to compare the big 3 at t96

UKMO and GFS have the centre of the low in the south but NAVGEM has it over Scotland GEM has the centre of the low developing way out east

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly 06z Monday 18z Monday By t120 its the clam after the storm Rainfall totals to 18:00 Monday I think the potential for surface water flooding is quite high but no major flooding at this stage

This looks like its going to be a short lived nasty low with it pulling away quite quickly 06z Monday 18z Monday By t120 its the clam after the storm UKMO at t96 GFS to compare

Wind speeds still strongest along the south coast the further north you are the better it will be Some torrential rain with this system for the south as well bringing a very high risk of flash flooding to many areas Rainfall totals to 18:00 Monday

GFS 12z out to midday Sunday now By Monday 00z the low in the SW is down to 985mb Deepens to 975mb over the SE Just about identical to the 06z run so far

The met office have issued a map for this possible storm on Monday showing where is most likely to be affected

At the moment this is the track the met office think it will take At the moment it looks as if Scotland and Northern Ireland will miss this storm What still remains unknown is where the centre of the low will reach its deepest if its just to west or east of the UK we may avoid the worst of it if not then it could be a nasty storm, just a good job the kids are off school next week

Impossible to estimate yet this storm isn't nailed on to hit the UK yet It could miss us altogether and hit France It could continue to downgrade like GFS did this morning We won't know for certain till the 12z's on Saturday

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Nov 2013 to Friday 22 Nov 2013: The mostly unsettled conditions are expected to continue for much of this period, with a trend for rainfall amounts to be slightly above average in the north and west but nearer to average in the south and east. Temperatures during this period are more likely to be near, or perhaps, a little above average throughout, leading to a lower risk of frost than can usually be expected at this time of year. There are some indications that towards the end of the period, slightly drier and more settled conditions further south would bring an increased risk of overnight frost, with fog which may be slow to clear at times. Updated: 1258 on Thu 24 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 29 Oct 2013 to Thursday 7 Nov 2013: Monday's storm will have pushed out into the North Sea by early Tuesday leaving the UK in a brighter and showery northwesterly airstream. However, it will be rather windy, and feeling much colder than of late, with a touch of frost across many parts overnight as the winds ease. After a dry and bright start on Wednesday, rain and strengthening winds will push in from the west and this will herald the change back to unsettled and milder conditions which will prevail thereafter. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, will affect many areas, especially the north and west, with strong winds and gales also likely in the west at times. The best drier and brighter interludes will be across southeastern parts, but this may allow occasional fog overnight. Updated: 1213 on Thu 24 Oct 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Whilst London and the SE is under an amber warning for strong winds on Monday we have a lesser yellow warning for rain Issued at: 1134 on Thu 24 Oct 2013 Valid from: 0000 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 Valid to: 2359 on Mon 28 Oct 2013 A spell of persistent heavy rainfall is likely to spread across northern parts of both Wales and England during Monday. The public should be aware of the potential for surface water flooding Chief Forecaster's assessment A rapidly deepening depression is expected to track across Britain on Monday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to many areas of England and Wales. The most likely outcome at this stage is that northern parts of England and north Wales should escape the worst of the wind (see the separate wind warnings if you are traveling southwards) but will be affected by some intense rainfall. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ne&fcTime=1382918400

They've probably only issued this amber warning so early because London and the SE is affected (highly populated areas) Storm warning for south of England The Met Office has warned that a storm forecast for Monday could cause disruption in the south of England. An amber alert for wind has been issued and there is also concern that heavy rain could cause flooding. The Met Office said the public in the affected area "should be prepared for the risk of falling trees as well as damage to buildings and other structures" caused by strong winds. There is uncertainty about the timing of the storm at this stage. Colin Seddon from the BBC Weather Centre said it "is certainly the worst storm we've seen this year". He said there is potential for gusts of wind over 80mph, especially on exposed coasts in Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex and Kent. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24654390

Monday is very uncertain still with two 985mb lows over us Thankfully wind speeds remain fairly low for many inland areas with only coastal districts prone to stronger winds

Apparently the Met Office has issued "extreme weather warnings" as 90mph gales threaten to lash coastal regions, with 80mph winds uprooting trees and ­damaging buildings inland. I must be missing something as I can't see any "extreme weather warnings" of course it had to be in today's Daily Express http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/438817/Lightning-strikes-as-biggest-storm-since-1987-sweeps-in