Slingfox

Can anyone explain why the GFS charts for precip seem to be struggling with the location, so many conflicting forecasts, and I am not one to moan, in fact I rarely post unless I completely fail to understand a certain point. The precip (falling as snow) is basically over London/Kent and East Anglia on the current 18z runs I just looked at, and puts everywhere else in a Sleet/Rain scenario. I am unsure what to trust, and I understand that crucially it comes down to now casting as forecasts can never be 100% accurate, just a bit stumped as some places currently show Heavy Snow for here, and others show Rain, I guess it all depends on the models they're using to generate the forecast, but it's a huge variation so far.

I am also slightly puzzled by the GFS output on the latest run predicting that we'll just simply get icy rain, yet the likes of the Met Office give us Heavy Snow symbols, not sure if I trust the GFS at this stage, could do with things being slightly more to the West so the likes of Hampshire gets a bit of snow.

The storm seems to be edging away from my location, the rain has died down considerably.

Got occasional lightning here, mostly IC, sounds fairly elevated going by the thunder (shotgun type thunder claps). Filming it on a Nikon D3100 in Full HD and will upload it as soon as I have enough clips.

Looks to be some hefty rain moving through at the moment, it's raining cats and dogs outside.

Woke up an hour ago thinking I heard thunder, but as slb97 pointed out, the storm has now made it's way up here from Portsmouth. infrequent flashes so far.

I can report that I've just seen more lightning, appears to be to the West of my location. No rain or thunder though so must be a reasonable distance away.

The problem with IOW this time is their script that runs the lightning detector has been deemed as abusive by UK2, their website provider. Thus they keep taking it offline and replacing it with a message saying that it's overloading the server on which the site is hosted, thus where the problem lies.

Had a couple of rumbles earlier and just had a decent rain shower. Not seen much else, went down to Portsmouth earlier and saw a few flashes of lightning but not much else.

I'll be down there later on tonight if things progress well enough for there to be a good enough show.

Whilst trying to not repeat questions, is the main risk of elevated storms this evening and into the night due to the potential imports crossing the channel?