[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is poor and as bad as the UKMO.

Upstream it’s flatter and makes nothing of the shortwave exiting Canada so down stream the troughing fails to elongate.

Ironic just as the GEFS improved the ECM op is going in the other direction.

Surface cold is blown away by day 5 from the most of the UK .

 

Pretty much deju vue Nick from a couple of weeks ago where the ECM Op had a two day stint of dialling in mild sw'erlys for the UK for the back end of last week and this week, it resolved itself on later runs, aligning its OP with its Mean and GFS / UKMO Cold Easterly Solutions , which came to pass.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Noticed anything weird about those charts at all?

Earth Crust Displacement ?  🙂

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just an observation on the Fax charts .. a little bizarre , and I cannot recall ever seeing LP @ 1026MB ... thoughts?

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

3 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

And here 0.000000cm approx rubbish!

Likewise mate, had sweet nada thus far this winter here save a 3hr 5mm drop couple of Sunday's back..   Patience tested but we continue to hope.  The Extended Outlooks still remain very positive for a continuation of cold, with the odd "milder" incursion, and significant potential for widespread snow events .. hang in there !

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

3 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Is that for today?

Sorry yes , edited my post to reflect your comment

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Today's Fax 12z detailing some beautiful Convergence lines (streamers) with significant east to west penetration of heavy wintery hazardous stuff🙂

Even way out west here on the IoA. North Wales (@15:45)

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

10 minutes ago, Norrance said:

There are other threads to discuss BBC forecasts and graphics. Please use them.

Thanks.

👍 noted and actioned. That said my original post was purely aiming to provide some substantiation of the outputs from the Mets' Fax charts for the end of the week. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

Be out of date now anyway 

I used the BBC graphics purely to demonstrate the "potential" of the up and coming battleground event towards the end of the week. From my point of view, the Beeb are as good as any at this range.

"Be out of date now anyway"  🙂  this is true , just updated at 15:04. That said that applies to just about everything to do with "The Weather".  unless you are at T +0  

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

25 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

From some charts the front is stalling southwest/west. What do you think? Could it push east from what these models show? 

At the moment mate too far off to call, I'll be keeping a close eye on the Fax charts to see how the LPs out in the Atlantic develop as we run through the week.

From the Beebs perspective though  - Thursday pm the "Battleground" is poised  (all very much "potential" at this range)

Thursday into Friday

By Saturday 06z 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Keeping a close eye now on the formation of convergence lines over the north sea ("Streamers"), as these will have a big impact on where heavy, prolonged snow showers will form / fall over the coming days.

The current NetWeather radar imagery is tracking the first convergence line to form across the north sea, into north east Scotland

06z Fax

Monday T+24 06z

Monday T+36 12z

Tuesday T+48 00z

Tuesday T+60 12z

Wednesday T+72 00z, also note the occlusion off over northern France, potential for the South Coast?

Wednesday T+96 12z, easterly wind easing somewhat, thus reducing the penetration of showers across the country east to west

By Friday as the wind veers more to a south easterly, loose the fetch loose the potential for Convergence Shower bands (Streamers)

Eyes then on the LP trying to push in from the w / sw with its associated fronts interacting with the "in place" cold air mass over the UK

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

10 minutes ago, StingJet said:

lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy"  .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole 🙂

850 Anomaly is off the richter scale 😲

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

New winner? P6

I have a feeling 330am icon club will have a few more members tomorrow

 

lol .. just returned to the laptop after a break to watch "Greenland" on Amazon .. to see the end of the 18z GFS run ..... talk about "Eye Candy"  .. is the P6 also dialling in a shift of the earth's axis .. aka Iceland is the new North Pole 🙂

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Interesting model ends run for the ECM, begs the question of what will the HP Cell over the UK do next ....?  If read in conjunction with the GFS 12z @ +240  a shift back north / north east is plausible, opening the door for the 975mb LP south of Greenland to track Se , under cutting the HP,.. classic slider anyone ? 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

5 minutes ago, snowice said:

West England, Wales could be buried as the front stalls.

lol apart from that dark green blob over me .....  nonetheless  ... fascinating potential over the next few days and out to months end for the UK as whole

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

A snip of ECM 0z @ +216

now compared to the ECM 12z @ +216

Euro cold 850s fighting back 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is gona be a classic Feb cold spell...

 

😀 I concur, and more than likely extended into March

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

T+48 for Monday 12 noon , Convergence potential through middle England to North Wales, and more fun for north east Scotland. The Occlusion off Kent still delivering the white stuff too  

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

25 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

A fantastic GFS 12z run this afternoon out to t216, it looks increasingly likely that this cold spell isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. This has to be one of the most exciting periods of model watching that I have ever taken part in!😃❄️

 

If only the face of the "beast (from the east)" , as depicted on the +216 would raise its "lower jaw" the uk would be in the line of fire for some exceptionally low 850's 🙂

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well Helen Willets thinks -12c uppers will bring temps of 3c and above

 

BFTP

lol .. may be she got her units mixed up and meant 3f 🙂

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

26 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Euros and met office will always beat gfs in these set_ups.

looking too see if ecm and ukmo are even colder in the morning. 

The excitement is building

What we have seen over the past 24 hrs is a classic pincer movement by the ECM Op to shame the GFS Op into embarrassment. The ECM Op for the past few days has been a major outlier with its own mean.   Of late the 3 have been reasonably consistent out to +144hrs. Post +144hs we saw a major change with the high pressure system around Svalbard. The GFS Op stalled it, the ECM Op continued to transition the HP through Greenland dissipating over Canada, leaving the north Atlantic in a typical winter zonal flow. The GFS Op 18z is very much a kin to the 24-48hrs old pattern of the outlier ECM Op that of a zonal flow with very little chance of a Scandi block and resultant mini / major,  long / short term BFtE. I am now happy that the ECM Op has now switched and consistent with the MetO extended outlook , as you would expect it to be. Now the ECM has revealed its somewhat guarded hand for a cold easterly incursion , and laid its cards on table , it will be just a matter of time before the GFS realises what the ECM has done and switches back to be more commensurate with that of the ECM / MetO evolution

Just to note:   The transition of the ECM Op to a colder evolution, is not as some would see it "getting on board"  the path to this cold evolution is completely different pattern than that portrayed by the GFS ... i.e. as above with respect to the large HP around Svalbard.   The ECM would never align itself with the GFS ..lol that would be "sacrilegious"  🙂

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

26 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not gonna happen pal...there will be an-easterly flow by late next week...the scrutiny should only be how established.=prologned she becomes!!!...see ya @the 12z suites.✌

 

I'd be with you on that TI.  Yesterday evening I had a stab a raising a discussion of MetO and Beeb extended outlooks vs  ECM OP , but failed miserably with no conclusive evidence to support my observations over recent weeks of the aforementioned two's extended outlooks running reasonably close to the ECM Op. Today's MetO extended outlook is consistent with their previous updates and still eludes to northern blocking / Scandi High for the run into the middle of Feb. As to the ECM Op still scratching my head on that one ..somewhat running to a Bartlet'eque solution at run's end

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

12 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Have you got any evidence to back these claims up? 

Certainly the Met office extended doesn't back the ECM on this occasion.

It will be interesting to see how the next week or so pans out,   from my observations thus far during this "winter" the extended outlooks from the "two" have both been fairly consistent with each other and ECM Op. The MetO extended outlook at 4pm today has dialled in the potential for cold (er) synoptics for the UK into Feb, which does tally with the ECM mean, the outlier at present is therefore the ECM Op , as others have eluded to, and appears to be sticking to its guns.

ECM Op for me has always been the "form horse"  happy to stand corrected though 😊

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

3 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

I'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes.

There was just a touch of sarcasm in my post ... Yes of course mate all models chop and change run to run, it has been noted though that when the ECM consistently delivers a certain "trend"  i.e. in this case the UK still dominated by a fairly mobile west - east flow of LP systems heading our way off the Atlantic with mild sectors alternating with post cold front "cold pools" , with no signs of northern / scandi blocking or beast'esque synoptics, then it does have an uncanny knack of verifying, again substantiated by the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks.  

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Think we are better off looking for signs from wildlife or seaweed than using the EC for guidance on the week ahead. Honestly...

The ECM is unfortunately always correct. Especially when you cross reference its outputs with the Beeb and MetO extended outlooks, which tend to be aligned with the ECM out to 240.
I spent many years running the UK Stormtrack Topic on the GPS Speedsurfing Website , with the primary objective of calling off Speedsailing events here in the UK, the ECM / MetO have always been the form horse and tend to verify more often than other models such as the GFS .. .as you would well know mate 😀

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

I am quite intrigued by the GFS 850 animation (Metociel) from say T300h to T384h portraying a tsunami of super cooled 850s coming across Scandi west towards Iceland, with the "lip"  the "-12s"  curling back and breaking over Scotland with -8s, nice feature.   Better than making head or tail of the ECM 12 run ..